{"id":16509,"date":"2020-02-28T12:09:19","date_gmt":"2020-02-28T17:09:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16509"},"modified":"2020-02-28T12:10:30","modified_gmt":"2020-02-28T17:10:30","slug":"mlb-rotation-ranks-heading-into-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16509","title":{"rendered":"MLB Rotation Ranks heading into 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_13490\" style=\"width: 279px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/scherzerslappingglove.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-13490\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13490\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13490\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/scherzerslappingglove.jpg\" alt=\"Scherzer: the #1 on the #1 rotation. photo via wp.com\" width=\"269\" height=\"187\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-13490\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scherzer: the #1 on the #1 rotation. photo via wp.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Every off-season I find myself meticulously tracking Starting pitching movement, with a working XLS that attempts to quantify the rank of every rotation in the majors.<\/p>\n<p>Before we get too further into the pre-season, and these ranks start to get obsoleted as we find out that some starters are going to head into surgery or to the DL, i wanted to get this out there.<\/p>\n<p>Previous years of doing this<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15684\">2019<\/a>\u00a0Cubs #1, Nats #4.\u00a0 Probably overvalued Cubs, undervalued the Dodgers, Rays and Astros.<\/li>\n<li>2018: did not do the analysis, but Houston led the league in ERA, FIP, fWAR<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=13381\">2017<\/a>: Cubs #1, Mets #2.\u00a0 Cleveland and LA Dodgers really the best.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12003\">2016<\/a>: Mets #1, Cardinals #2.\u00a0 Mets and Nats ended up being the best on the season.<\/li>\n<li>2015: did not do the post.\u00a0 Cubs, Nats, Dodgers the best.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8388\">2014<\/a>: Cards #1.\u00a0 Nats ended up being the best rotation by most measures.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5447\">2013<\/a>: Nats #1, Tigers #2.\u00a0 In the end, Detroit really was the best rotation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here&#8217;s my rankings of the Starting Rotations of every team in the majors.<\/p>\n<p>Raw data, which includes a ton more detail including movement, starters still out there, and color coding indicating whether i think a pitcher is a #1, a #2, a #3 or lower is here:\u00a0https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1gztFB_MIkVLd-Bzw9SuSYJxE709eHOPAsAZL8nzsiPw\/edit?usp=sharing<\/p>\n<p>Notes: i have these roughly grouped for discussion.\u00a0 Each of these groups of rotations are in the correct order, but are relatively close enough that if you wanted to argue within the grouping I wouldn&#8217;t probably push back too much, but i&#8217;d put any of the teams in one group ahead of any team in the next group.<\/p>\n<p>1. Washington:\u00a0 Max Scherzer Stephen Strasburg Patrick Corbin Anibal Sanchez Joe Ross<br \/>\n2. Texas:\u00a0 Corey Kluber Lance Lynn Mike Minor Kyle Gibson Jordan Lyles<br \/>\n3. Los Angeles Dodgers:\u00a0 Clayton Kershaw Walker Buehler David Price Julio Urias Alex Wood<br \/>\n4. New York Mets;\u00a0 Jacob deGrom Noah Syndergaard Marcus Stroman Steven Matz Rick Porcello<\/p>\n<p>Yes, i&#8217;ve got our home team #1.\u00a0 I think the top 3 are all three Aces (meaning, they&#8217;re all among the top 15-20 arms in the league), and the Nats are the only team that can make that claim.\u00a0 Texas has completely remade their rotation, adding an ace in <strong>Kluber<\/strong>, adding the back-end of their rotation via FA this off-season and I really think they&#8217;re in a position to make some noise.\u00a0 LA comes in third, and yes I still have <strong>Kershaw<\/strong> as an &#8220;Ace&#8221; for now, but <strong>Buehler<\/strong> is probably the best arm of the bunch.\u00a0 the Mets are a speculative #4; is <strong>Snydergaard<\/strong> really an Ace?\u00a0 What happened to him last year?\u00a0 If he returns to form, the NL East becomes that much more difficult to navigate for all the teams involved.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>5. Tampa Bay:\u00a0 Blake Snell Charlie Morton Tyler Glasnow Yonny Chirinos Ryan Yarbrough<br \/>\n6. Houston:\u00a0 Justin Verlander Zack Greinke Lance McCullers Jose Urquidy Rogelio Armentos<br \/>\n7. Philadelphia:\u00a0 Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola Jake Arrieta Zach Eflin Vincent Velasquez<br \/>\n8. Cincinnati:\u00a0 Sonny Grey Luis Castillo Anthony DeSclafani Trevor Bauer Wade Miley<br \/>\n9. Atlanta:\u00a0Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, Cole\u00a0 Hamels, Max Fried, Kyle Wright<\/p>\n<p>Tampa is a hard one to rate, b\/c of their use of the &#8220;Opener&#8221; so much.\u00a0 Houston takes a hit by letting <strong>Cole<\/strong> go and replacing him with someone who I couldn&#8217;t pick out of a lineup.\u00a0 I think Cincinnati&#8217;s rotation may prove to look quite mediocre if <strong>Grey<\/strong> and <strong>Bauer<\/strong> in particular don&#8217;t produce.\u00a0 Atlanta has five talented guys who all could step up and make them really tough to beat, so watch out.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>10.\u00a0Oakland:\u00a0 Sean Manaea Frankie Montas Mike Fiers Jesus Luzardo Chris Bassitt<br \/>\n11. St. Louis:\u00a0 Jack Flaherty Dakota Hudson Miles Mikolas Adam Wainwright Kwang-Hyun Kim<br \/>\n12. New York Yankees:\u00a0 Gerritt Cole Luis Severino Masahiro Tanaka J.A. Happ Domingo German<br \/>\n13. Toronto:\u00a0 Hyung-Jin Ryu Chase Anderson Matt Shoemaker Tanner Roark Shun Yamaguchi<br \/>\n14. Minnesota:\u00a0 Jake Odorizzi Jose Berrios Kenta Maeda Homer Bailey Randy Dobnak<br \/>\n15. San Diego:\u00a0 Chris Paddock Garrett Richards Drew Pomeranz Zach Davies Dinelson Lamet<br \/>\n16. Cleveland:\u00a0 Mike Clevinger Shane Bieber Carlos Carrasco Aaron Civale Adam Plutko<\/p>\n<p>Oakland could look a lot better fast if\u00a0<strong>Luzardo<\/strong> lives up to his #2 starter hype.\u00a0 Its also noteworthy that no matter where you rank Oakland&#8217;s rotation pre-season, they produce.\u00a0 I think i had them in the bottom five last year and they won 97 games with a bunch of #4 starters.\u00a0 So who knows.\u00a0 The Yankees are #12, which also seems amazing for a 103 win team that ADDED perhaps the best right hander in the game &#8230; but they fall off fast AND they seem to have lost <strong>Severino<\/strong> for the season (which is not accounted for here), so they may be actually worse.\u00a0 Toronto&#8217;s got 3 new starters and some unknowns: is\u00a0<strong>Ryu<\/strong> going to be an Ace or a 4th?\u00a0 Cleveland is the lowest team with an &#8220;Ace&#8221; in the rotation<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>17.\u00a0Arizona:\u00a0 Robbie Ray Luke Weaver Mike Leake Merrill Kelly Alex Young<br \/>\n18. Milwaukee:\u00a0 Brandon Woodruff Adrian Houser Brett Anderson Freddy Peralta Eric Lauer<br \/>\n19. Chicago Cubs:\u00a0 Kyle Hendricks Yu Darvish Jon Lester Jose Quintana Alec Mills<br \/>\n20. Boston:\u00a0 Chris Sale Eduardo Rodriguez Nathan Eovaldi Martin Perez Matt Hall<br \/>\n21. Chicago White Sox:\u00a0 Lucas Giolito Dallas Keuchel Reynaldo Lopez Carson Fulmer Gio Gonzalez<br \/>\n22. Colorado:\u00a0 Jon Grey German Marquez Kyle Freeland Antonio Senzelata Jeff Hoffman<br \/>\n23. San Francisco:\u00a0 Jeff Samardzija Johnny Cueto Tyler Beede Kevin Gausmann Drew Smyly<br \/>\n24. Los Angeles Angels:\u00a0 Shohei Ohtani Julio Teheran Jamie Barria Andrew Heaney Dylan Bundy<\/p>\n<p>this is a logical stopping point (the #24 ranked Angels) because this is clearly the end of teams that are &#8220;trying&#8221; in 2020.\u00a0 And you might push back on the notion that some of these teams are even trying (Boston, SF, etc).\u00a0 Its still kind of amazing to me that the White Sox are ranked this low, given the pedigree of their prospect-laden rotation and the fact that they added a recent cy Young winner in\u00a0<strong>Keuchel<\/strong> this past off-season.\u00a0 Boston takes a hit as we hear that <strong>Sale<\/strong> may start the season on the DL.\u00a0 Lastly what to make of LAA?\u00a0 Is\u00a0<strong>Ohtani<\/strong> goign to compete and be an ace?\u00a0 If not they need production from a bunch of #5 starters or else they waste even more of\u00a0<strong>Trout<\/strong> (and now\u00a0<strong>Rendon<\/strong>&#8216;s) careers.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p>25.\u00a0Seattle:\u00a0Marco GonzalesYusei Kikuchi\u00a0Justus SheffieldKendall GravemanJustin Dunn<br \/>\n26. Pittsburgh:\u00a0 Chris Archer Joe Musgrove Steven Brault Trevor Williams Mitch Keller<br \/>\n27. Kansas City:\u00a0Danny DuffyBrad KellerJake JunisMike MontgomeryJesse Hahn<br \/>\n28. Detroit:\u00a0 Matt Boyd Jordan Zimmermann Daniel Norris Spencer Turnbull Ivan Nova<br \/>\n29. Baltimore:\u00a0 John Means Alex Cobb Asher Wojciechowski Dean Kremer David Hess<br \/>\n30. Miami:\u00a0 Sandy Alcantara Caleb Smith Jose Urena Jordan Yamamoto Pablo Lopez<\/p>\n<p>All 6 of these teams i have as actively &#8220;tanking&#8221; in 2020, so not surprisingly they&#8217;re the bottom 6 rotations.\u00a0 A couple of these rotations don&#8217;t even have what i would consider even a #3 starter, and among all 6 of these teams I only see two acquisitions this off-season that project into their rotations.\u00a0 Miami, the lowest ranked rotation, made its sole starting pitching acquisition of the off-season a rule-5 drafting of our own former prospect\u00a0<strong>Sterling Sharp<\/strong>, which is pretty telling.\u00a0 Baltimore has added a bunch of depth but it all projects as just that; depth.\u00a0 4-A or minor league starter depth.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s it.\u00a0 What do you think?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every off-season I find myself meticulously tracking Starting pitching movement, with a working XLS that attempts to quantify the rank of every rotation in the majors. Before we get too further into the pre-season, and these ranks start to get obsoleted as we find out that some starters are going to head into surgery or [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[185,1169,426,1957,2593,4280,3960,3327,2915,456,2326,3735,2580,3335,1056,2534],"class_list":["post-16509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-chris-sale","tag-clayton-kershaw","tag-corey-kluber","tag-dallas-keuchel","tag-gerritt-cole","tag-hyung-jin-ryu","tag-jesus-luzardo","tag-luis-severino","tag-mike-trout","tag-noah-snydergaard","tag-shohei-ohtani","tag-sonny-grey","tag-sterling-sharp","tag-trevor-bauer","tag-walker-buehler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16509"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16509\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16514,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16509\/revisions\/16514"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}