{"id":16518,"date":"2020-03-03T11:54:52","date_gmt":"2020-03-03T16:54:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16518"},"modified":"2020-03-10T11:05:35","modified_gmt":"2020-03-10T15:05:35","slug":"keith-laws-nats-top-20-comes-out-who-is-he-up-and-down-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16518","title":{"rendered":"Keith Law&#8217;s Nats top 20 comes out; who is he up and down on?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_16489\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/KieboomCarter-via-federalbaseball.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-16489\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16489\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-16489\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/KieboomCarter-via-federalbaseball-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Kieboom is Law's number one ... like everyone else. Photo via federalbaseball.com\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/KieboomCarter-via-federalbaseball-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/KieboomCarter-via-federalbaseball-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/KieboomCarter-via-federalbaseball-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/KieboomCarter-via-federalbaseball.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-16489\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Kieboom is Law&#8217;s number one &#8230; like everyone else. Photo via federalbaseball.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong>Keith Law<\/strong>, long-time ESPN baseball writer and prospect lead, moved to the Athletic this past off-season and he&#8217;s put out most of his 2020 pre-season prospect content.\u00a0 Yesterday he put out his Nats top-20 list.<\/p>\n<p>We already know that Law is bearish on the Nats system in general, ranking it 29th out of 30 teams.\u00a0 A lot of that has to do with his being &#8220;lower&#8221; on\u00a0<strong>Carter Kieboom<\/strong> and\u00a0especially\u00a0<strong>Luis Garcia<\/strong> than any others.\u00a0 But its also a pretty specific indictment of the Nats top-end drafting (and to be fair, trading of prospects to acquire MLB players) over the past years.\u00a0 Consider the top 3 rounds of draftees lately (see the Draft Tracker for more:\u00a0https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY\/)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2019:\u00a0<strong>Rutledge,\u00a0<\/strong>forfeited 2nd round pick,\u00a0<strong>Mendoza<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2018:\u00a0<strong>Denaburg, Cate, Schaller<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2017:\u00a0<strong>Romero, Crowe, Raquet<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2016: <strong>Kieboom, Dunning, Neuse, Luzardo<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2015: forfeited 1st round pick, <strong>Stevenson, Perkins, Wisemann<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2014:\u00a0<strong>Fedde, Suarez<\/strong> (who refused to sign),\u00a0<strong>Reetz<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2013: forfeited 1st round pick,\u00a0<strong>Johansen, Ward<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2012:\u00a0<strong>Giolito, Renda, Mooneyham<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, take a look at this list of top end picks.\u00a0 You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a first rounder who has starred for this organization (<strong>Anthony Rendon<\/strong>).\u00a0 The team gave up on Giolito and he&#8217;s now starting for the White Sox.\u00a0 Fedde is heading to the minors again in 2020 and seems topped out as a 4-A starter, and so far the team has gotten nothing from its 2017 and 2018 $3M arms Romero and Denaburg.\u00a0 You can credibly say that the team lost or outright blew its first round picks in 5 of the last 8 seasons, and the guys who have succeeded not named Kieboom are playing for other teams.<\/p>\n<p>The 2nd rounders are even a worse indictment; Renda and Johansen were failures. Suarez refused to sign (a huge gaffe in the modern bonus-structure driven draft).\u00a0 Stevenson is a 5th outfielder.\u00a0 Dunning and Neuse are solid &#8230; for other teams.\u00a0 We gave up last year&#8217;s 2nd rounder to sign\u00a0<strong>Patrick Corbin<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Lastly the 3rd rounders have also basically done nothing: the team was obsessed with Mooneyham for years and he never got above A-ball.\u00a0 Ward and Wiseman are org players.\u00a0 Reetz is finally showing some promise &#8230; in his 6th pro season.\u00a0 \u00a0Luzardo?\u00a0 Awesome &#8230; for another team.\u00a0 Raquet was serviceable as a starter in high-A last year repeating the level, but may be heading to relief as a lefty specialist.\u00a0 Schaller didn&#8217;t even make Law&#8217;s top 20 list despite being a Vanderbilt product, and Mendoza is already a 1B limited guy more famous for his HS pedigree than his abilities.<\/p>\n<p>Yeah.\u00a0 Its no wonder our system is so poorly ranked.<\/p>\n<p>(No, i&#8217;m not taking into context who we traded these assets for.\u00a0 Yes i&#8217;m aware that the trades of Giolito, Dunning, Neuse, and Luzardo netted the team several crucial pieces at the MLB level in\u00a0<strong>Adam Eaton,\u00a0<\/strong><strong>Sean Doolittle\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0<strong>Ryan Madsen<\/strong>.\u00a0 That&#8217;s not the point here; we&#8217;re isolating reasons why the farm system has collapsed; part of is is poor drafting and part of it is trading away 1st and 2nd rounders.\u00a0 I&#8217;m less concerned with the traded assets as I am with the 1st and 2nd round pick failures that are starting to mount up; Denaburg and Romero in particular.).<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>Anyway.\u00a0 Lets take a look at who Law likes and doesn&#8217;t like as compared to the rest of the prospect ranking world.\u00a0 Law&#8217;s methodology generally favors ceiling over floor (so he likes younger prep guys with potential versus boring guys in AAA with demonstrated but un-flashy talent).\u00a0 He favors those in the skill positions (SS, CF) versus corners.\u00a0 He really discounts relievers.\u00a0 He likes IFAs.\u00a0 So with that in mind, here&#8217;s some names worth mentioning:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>He has the same top 3 as most every one else for our system: Kieboom, <strong>Garcia<\/strong>, Rutledge.\u00a0 BA, Fangraphs, MLBpipeline and Law all have these three in a row.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s generally down on Kieboom though versus other shops: I&#8217;ve seen Kieboom in the 11-15 range on a lot of minors-wide lists; Law has him all the way down at #74.<\/li>\n<li>We know he&#8217;s down on Garcia versus others.\u00a0 I&#8217;ve seen Garcia mostly in the 60s to 90s range on these minor&#8217;s wide lists; Law doesn&#8217;t have him anywhere close and has made mention of it whenever asked, saying that Garcia&#8217;s sole &#8220;tool&#8221; seems to be that he was 19 in AA last season.\u00a0 This is definitely at odds with the way Garcia is portrayed within the organization (he did get an NRI this year and has already hit a flashy homer), nor with other evaluations.<\/li>\n<li>He remains higher on Denaburg than others: see &#8220;ceiling&#8221; versus &#8220;floor&#8221; reasoning above.<\/li>\n<li>he&#8217;s a little higher on\u00a0<strong>Jeremy De La Rosa<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Eddy Yean<\/strong> than other shops, noting that Yean&#8217;s name frequently comes up in trade talks but the Nats are holding firm.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s lower on\u00a0<strong>Matt Cronin<\/strong> than other shops despite his eye-popping numbers: see &#8220;reliever all the way&#8221; reasoning above.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s suddenly much higher on Reetz than basically anyone else, citing 2nd half splits that really look rosy.\u00a0 Hey, i&#8217;ve been down on Reetz for a while, using him as my classic &#8220;Baseball doesn&#8217;t know what a sunk cost is&#8221; economics argument for hanging onto failed prospects just because they ahve a big bonus.\u00a0 But maybe we&#8217;re finally going to see something out of him.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s way higher on\u00a0<strong>Jhonatan German<\/strong> than anyone else; despite his being a pure reliever, perhaps a reliever-only starts getting his attention once he starts getting AA hitters out.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s bullish on\u00a0<strong>Telmito Agustin<\/strong>, but i&#8217;m not sure why.\u00a0 Agustin cratered while repeating high-A, though he&#8217;s still just 23.<\/li>\n<li>He does not like Mendoza nearly as much as others.\u00a0 Mendoza has a big bat, no doubt, but he can barely play 1B and may end up being a DH-only guy.\u00a0 That&#8217;s a ding on the prospect ranking set unless you&#8217;ve got\u00a0<strong>Vladimir Guerrero Jr.\u00a0<\/strong>batting lines in the minors.<\/li>\n<li>he&#8217;s down on some of our mid-minors college arms, guys like\u00a0<strong>Jake Irvin<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>Reid Schaller<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>Jackson Tetreault\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0<strong>Ben Braymer<\/strong>.\u00a0 Braymer in particular probably is a &#8220;floor versus ceiling&#8221; discussion;\u00a0 yeah he&#8217;s on the 40-man but what does he project to?\u00a0 A 5th starter?\u00a0 A reliever?<\/li>\n<li>Lastly, he&#8217;s completly at odds with one shop in particular that has\u00a0<strong>Tres Barrera<\/strong> as the 11th ranked prospect.\u00a0 And I get it; what exactly is Barrera going to give this organization going forward?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Anyway.\u00a0 If you&#8217;re not an Athetic subscriber I would encourage you to sign up.\u00a0 They&#8217;ve got some of the best talent in the game writing for them now and they just keep adding more good stuff.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Keith Law, long-time ESPN baseball writer and prospect lead, moved to the Athletic this past off-season and he&#8217;s put out most of his 2020 pre-season prospect content.\u00a0 Yesterday he put out his Nats top-20 list. We already know that Law is bearish on the Nats system in general, ranking it 29th out of 30 teams.\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,4324],"tags":[3142,2814,2464,185,3333,4319,3186,3187,4184,1813,4320,2425,4181,3608,3871,1812,2466,3987,3327,3619,852,3051,3788,4185,4299,3604,1855,3870,3189,2952,1347,3565,3188,3378,3763,1271,3192,3757,3588],"class_list":["post-16518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","category-prospects","tag-adam-eaton","tag-andrew-stevenson","tag-andrew-suarez","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-ben-braymer","tag-bret-mooneyham","tag-carter-kieboom","tag-dane-dunning","tag-drew-mendoza","tag-drew-ward","tag-eddy-yean","tag-erick-fedde","tag-jackson-rutledge","tag-jackson-tetreault","tag-jake-irvin","tag-jake-johansen","tag-jakson-reetz","tag-jeremy-de-la-rosa","tag-jesus-luzardo","tag-jhonatan-german","tag-lucas-giolito","tag-luis-garcia","tag-mason-denaburg","tag-matt-cronin","tag-nick-perkins","tag-nick-raquet","tag-patrick-corbin","tag-reid-schaller","tag-rhett-wisemann","tag-ryan-madsen","tag-sean-doolittle","tag-seth-romero","tag-sheldon-neuse","tag-telmito-agustin","tag-tim-cate","tag-tony-renda","tag-tres-barrera","tag-vladimir-guerrero-jr","tag-wil-crowe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16518","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16518"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16518\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16526,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16518\/revisions\/16526"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16518"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16518"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16518"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}