{"id":16610,"date":"2020-06-12T11:11:33","date_gmt":"2020-06-12T15:11:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16610"},"modified":"2020-06-12T11:11:33","modified_gmt":"2020-06-12T15:11:33","slug":"nats-2020-draft-class-by-the-ranks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16610","title":{"rendered":"Nats 2020 Draft class by the Ranks"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_16613\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CavalliCade-oklahoma-via-lookoutlanding.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-16613\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16613\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-16613\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CavalliCade-oklahoma-via-lookoutlanding-300x300.jpg\" alt=\"Cade Cavalli is your 2020 1st round pick. Photo via Lookout Landing blog\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CavalliCade-oklahoma-via-lookoutlanding-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CavalliCade-oklahoma-via-lookoutlanding-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CavalliCade-oklahoma-via-lookoutlanding-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CavalliCade-oklahoma-via-lookoutlanding-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CavalliCade-oklahoma-via-lookoutlanding.jpg 1400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-16613\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cade Cavalli is your 2020 1st round pick. Photo via Lookout Landing blog<\/p><\/div>\n<p>(note: i have updated the Draft Tracker for the 2020 draft, both the master board and the 2020 draft notes boards).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Master Draft Board: https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY\/#gid=0<\/li>\n<li>2020 Draft worksehhet: https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY\/#gid=25540806<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(I have more details about signing bonus calculus and player notes\/twitter accounts on the 2020 worksheet, in case you&#8217;re wondering why i separate them).<\/p>\n<p>By now, you&#8217;ve probably heard about our picks and read a ton of responses in the commentary.<\/p>\n<p>Using various pundit draft board rankings (listed at the bottom for reference), here&#8217;s how our picks were thought of before the draft.\u00a0 Along with some commentary from me.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1st Round\/#22 overall:\u00a0<strong>Cade Cavalli<\/strong>, RHP Oklahoma.\u00a0 \u00a0Law=13.\u00a0 MLBPipeline=22.\u00a0 BA=22.\u00a0 Fangraphs=17.\u00a0 ESPN=24.\u00a0 CBS=16.\u00a0 D1Baseball=9.\u00a0 20\/80=23.\u00a0 PerfectGame=8.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, picking 22nd the Nats generally seem to have gotten value per the pundits.\u00a0 Certainly this wasn&#8217;t a reach.\u00a0 And, by some pundits (Law in particular, Perfect Game as well) this was a steal.<\/p>\n<p><strong>My thoughts<\/strong>: well, we know the Nats like college arms, velocity, big guys and players from Texas\/Oklahoma.\u00a0 Cavalli hits all those markers.\u00a0 I was sure they&#8217;d go\u00a0<strong>Cole Wilcox <\/strong>or perhaps\u00a0<strong>J.T. Ginn\u00a0<\/strong>but the team passed to go with Cavalli.\u00a0 ironically, Wilcox didn&#8217;t go until the 3rd round, so the Nats passed on\u00a0 him multiple times, while Ginn went just before their 2nd round pick to the Mets, a like-minded drafting org.\u00a0 Cavalli is a speculative, scouting-first pick; he has little track record to go on, and this is the kind of pick that you can regret later on if he doesn&#8217;t work out.\u00a0 He was mostly a hitter his freshman year before converting to the mound.\u00a0 Maybe the team tries him as a two-way player?\u00a0 He&#8217;s a big dude; he looks more like a football player physically.\u00a0 Nonetheless, he&#8217;s got easy velocity and his mechanics look clean.\u00a0 Some concerns about hit-ability; wonder if he has some spin rate issues.\u00a0 A professional pitching development shop can do wonders with him.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2nd round\/#55 overall:\u00a0<strong>Cole Henry<\/strong>, RHP LSU.\u00a0 Law=65.\u00a0\u00a0MLBPipeline=45.\u00a0 BA=44.\u00a0 Fangraphs=70.\u00a0 ESPN=72.\u00a0 CBS &gt; 50..\u00a0 D1Baseball=16.\u00a0 20\/80=55.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, a couple of the ranking boards like Henry at 55, while a couple others (Law, Fangraphs, Espn) think its a bit of a reach.\u00a0 Draft eligible sophomore, so I wonder if this is a potential over-slot bonus guy.\u00a0 He was LSU&#8217;s friday starter from the moment he walked onto campus, quite a statement for a top-line baseball program.\u00a0 He has an electric arm, four plus pitches (4-seamer, 2-seamer, a 12-6 hammer curve, change).\u00a0 I&#8217;ve watched the video of him; scouting claims that he had such a violent head snap that he &#8220;had difficulties keeping his hat on&#8221; seem quite overblown; I didn&#8217;t see anywhere near that in the video clips of him available online.\u00a0 I like this pick as a sneaky good starter for this team.\u00a0 Interesting player comp mentioned by MLBpipeline during the draft:\u00a0<strong>Mike Mussina<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2nd-Supp round\/#71 overall:\u00a0<strong>Samuel Infante<\/strong>, SS from\u00a0Monsignor Edward Pace HS, Miami, FL.\u00a0 \u00a0MLBPipeline=149.\u00a0 BA=154.\u00a0 ESPN=122, Fangraphs=173.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This is an interesting pick for the Nats.\u00a0 Clearly an overdraft by every ranking pundit, the scouting reports on Infante all say the same thing; lots of loud power in showcases, questions as to whether he can stay at short (he&#8217;s played both SS and 3B in showcases), but super fast and with a great arm.\u00a0 Listed as 6&#8217;1&#8243; 185, he&#8217;s still in the SS range and with plus arm strength he could very well feature as a top of the line 3B defensive player.\u00a0 A UMiami commit from a Miami high school; i wonder if that factors into their thinking.\u00a0 Did the Nats cut a deal here with Infante based on his projection to get slot savings?\u00a0 \u00a0One other factor here; he&#8217;s already 19, so he&#8217;s old for the HS class (a negative in scouting world) but also means he&#8217;d be a draft eligible sophomore if he goes to Miami (which might make his signing tougher).\u00a0 Curious pick.\u00a0 MLBPipeline guys comped him to\u00a0<strong>Maikel Franco<\/strong>, an interesting comp.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>3rd Round\/#94 overall:\u00a0<strong>Holden Powell<\/strong>, RHP from UCLA.\u00a0 MLBpipeline=134.\u00a0 BA=126.\u00a0 ESPN=144.\u00a0 D1Baseball=77.\u00a0 20\/80=HM.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Powell is UCLA&#8217;s closer; stopper of the year last year.\u00a0 He&#8217;s got no chance to start but still got ranked in the mid 100s by several shops.\u00a0 The Nats havn&#8217;t picked a reliever-first this high in quite a while (<strong>Drew Storen<\/strong> maybe?) , and I suspect we&#8217;ll get some bonus savings here to help pay others here.\u00a0 He projects as a two-pitch guy\u00a0 with a FB hitting 97 and a wipeout slider who probably moves pretty quickly through the minors if he&#8217;s as good as reported.\u00a0 20 Ks&#8217; in 9 innings this season; he&#8217;s just got tough stuff to hit facing him in the late-game.\u00a0 Can go multiple innings, undersized guy on the mound with kind of whippy arm action.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t hate the pick, if its meant to be cost savings for other picks.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>4th round\/#123 overall:\u00a0<strong>Brady Lindsly<\/strong>, C from Oklahoma.\u00a0 unranked by any service<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>With all due respect, Lindsly is clearly a &#8220;senior sign&#8221; by the team to save slot money for others.\u00a0 I&#8217;m suspecting that both this and the Powell pick are money savers to pay Infante and Henry a bit more than slot (both those players being higher leverage guys to go to\/return to school).\u00a0 What little we know about Lindsly; known for good defense, didn&#8217;t have a great average in college,\u00a0 hit for a bit of power.\u00a0 Lefty bat.\u00a0 As others noted, maybe the team liked him while scouting Cavalli.\u00a0 \u00a0Its also notable that he&#8217;s already calling himself a member of the Nats organization on his twitter account.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>5th round\/#153 overall:\u00a0<strong>Mitchell Parker<\/strong>, LHP from\u00a0San Jacinto College North JuCo in Texas.\u00a0 \u00a0BA=179.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>16.6 K\/9 this year in 30 innings this year.\u00a0 Last year 1.43 ERA with similar K\/9 numbers.\u00a0 In case you&#8217;re wondering &#8230; yes this is the same Juco they got\u00a0<strong>Jackson Rutledge<\/strong> out of last year; one has to wonder if the scouts stuck around for a double header or something while scouting Rutledge and liked Parker.\u00a0 Oddly, despite great numbers last year he was only a 27th rounder and thus has been pursuing D1 scholarships: he&#8217;s committed to U of Kentucky for next season if he doesn&#8217;t sign.\u00a0 Big guy (6&#8217;4&#8243;), lefty who throws over the top.\u00a0 He&#8217;s known for fastball up to 94 with a big curve.\u00a0 His mechanics are a little concerning; he lands very stiff legged and almost hyper extends his knee as he stops his upper torso&#8217;s momentum.\u00a0 I feel like this needs to be adjusted to prevent over-dependence on his arm.\u00a0 Might be a tougher sign; i wonder if some of the 3rd and 4th round savings are for Parker too.<\/p>\n<p>Draft summary:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>3 college starters<\/li>\n<li>1 college reliever<\/li>\n<li>1 Prep SS\/3B<\/li>\n<li>1 Prep C<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Conjecture on over\/under slot needs:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Players who are likely signing for slot: Cavalli, perhaps Henry<\/li>\n<li>Players who are likely under slot: Powell, Lindsly<\/li>\n<li>Players who are likely commanding over-slot: Infante, Parker, maybe Henry<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I have no doubt they&#8217;ll sign all six based on the limited draft.\u00a0\u00a0<strong>Mike Rizzo<\/strong> has also said they&#8217;ll be &#8220;aggressive&#8221; with NDFA signings &#8230; as aggressive as a $20k bonus can take you of course.<\/p>\n<p>I like our first two picks as future prospects.\u00a0 I like the prep SS.\u00a0 I could see our 5th rounder as a project but he has potential.\u00a0 I like the class.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Draft Board Rankings<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Athletic (<strong>Keith Law):\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theathletic.com\/1670438\/2020\/03\/16\/keith-laws-top-30-prospects-for-the-2020-mlb-draft\/\">Top 30 prospects for 2020 draft<\/a>, and then\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theathletic.com\/1850996\/2020\/06\/06\/keith-laws-big-board-ranking-the-2020-mlb-drafts-top-100-prospects\/\">top 100 prospects for 2020 draft<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>MLBPipeline (<strong>Callis &amp; Mayo<\/strong>):\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/prospects\/draft\/\">Top 200 Draft Board<\/a><\/li>\n<li>BaseballAmerica:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/rankings\/2020-mlb-draft-top-prospects\/\">Top 500 Draft board<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fangraphs;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/prospects\/the-board\/2020-mlb-draft\/summary?type=0&amp;sort=-1,1\">2020 Draft Board<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ESPN\u00a0<strong>(Kiley McDaniel<\/strong>)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/insider\/story\/_\/id\/29251325\/updated-2020-mlb-draft-rankings-latest-top-150-players\">top 150 draft prospects\u00a0for 2020<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CBSSports (<strong>R.J Anderson<\/strong>):\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/mlb-draft-2020-ranking-top-50-prospects-in-the-class-with-collegiate-hitters-at-the-top\/\">top 50 for 2020 draft<\/a><\/li>\n<li>D1baseball.com:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/d1baseball.com\/prospects\/2020-top-100-college-prospect-rankings\/\">top 100<\/a>\u00a0and then\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/d1baseball.com\/prospects\/2020-prospect-rankings-nos-101-250\/\">top 101-250<\/a>\u00a0for 2020 draft (College players only)<\/li>\n<li>20\/80 Baseball\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/2080baseball.com\/2020\/06\/2020-final-mlb-draft-ranking\/\">top 125 for 2020 draft<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/2080baseball.com\/2020\/06\/2020-mlb-draft-player-notes-1-25\/\">Detailed notes on top 25<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>PerfectGame\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.perfectgame.org\/Rankings\/Draft\/DraftPlayerRankings.aspx?ver=12\">2020 Draft Rankings database<\/a>\/top 400 players for 2020 (all but top 10 behind a paywall)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(note: i have updated the Draft Tracker for the 2020 draft, both the master board and the 2020 draft notes boards). Master Draft Board: https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY\/#gid=0 2020 Draft worksehhet: https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY\/#gid=25540806 (I have more details about signing bonus calculus and player notes\/twitter accounts on the 2020 worksheet, in case you&#8217;re wondering why i separate them). By now, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,5],"tags":[4399,4394,4396,4395,52,3791,4398,1083,129,4400,4397],"class_list":["post-16610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-draft","category-natsgeneral","tag-brady-lindsly","tag-cade-cavalli","tag-cole-henry","tag-cole-wildox","tag-drew-storen","tag-jt-ginn","tag-maikel-franco","tag-mike-mussina","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-mitchell-parker","tag-samuel-infante"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16610"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16610\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16621,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16610\/revisions\/16621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}