{"id":16866,"date":"2021-01-09T14:49:29","date_gmt":"2021-01-09T19:49:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16866"},"modified":"2021-01-09T14:50:20","modified_gmt":"2021-01-09T19:50:20","slug":"nats-get-schwarber","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16866","title":{"rendered":"Nats get Schwarber"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/SchwarberKyle-cubs-via-espn-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16867\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/SchwarberKyle-cubs-via-espn-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/SchwarberKyle-cubs-via-espn-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/SchwarberKyle-cubs-via-espn-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/SchwarberKyle-cubs-via-espn.jpg 1296w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Schwarber coming to Washington,  Photo via Espn<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Word broke Saturday that Washington DC had made news for another reason besides insurrection; <strong>Kyle Schwarber<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2021\/01\/nationals-to-sign-kyle-schwarber.html\">signed a 1yr $10M deal<\/a> to come to DC for 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Short version of this post: I like this move.  A lot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;ve liked Schwarber ever since Chicago drafted him in the 1st round out of Indiana (bucking the pre-draft rankings) and he raced through the minors.  His debut with the Cubs was great, and then his post-season heroics have been fabulous.  He struggled mightily in the 2020 short season and the now tanking North siders non-tendered him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As noted in the mlbtraderumors.com article, Schwarber signed for a bit more than his arb projection, which indicates there must have been somewhat of a bidding war for his services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why do I like this move?  As I noted in the comments before writing this post, several reasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Pedigree: Upper 1st round pick who has solid (if not all-star) career numbers.  113 career wRC+, 113 career OPS+ &#8230; both figures knocked down badly by his 2020 season.<\/li><li>Bounce Back candidate: 2020 was brutal for Schwarber &#8230; as was his BABIP.  Just a .219 babip for 2020 despite being in the 95th percentile of exit velocity means his numbers should have been much higher.  <\/li><li>2019 slash line:  .250\/.339\/.531 with 38 homers.   He&#8217;s a power hitter<\/li><li>You don&#8217;t need a gold glove in left field, as you&#8217;ve heard me say a lot.  I want a hitter.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I like getting a middle of the order bat for 1yr\/$10M.  I like getting a 27yr old 1st round slugger for 1yr $10M.  I like getting a cleanup hitter with a .480 career slugging without giving up a prospect.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes he strikes out a lot; 156 Ks in 610 2019 PAs for a 25.5% strikeout rate.  The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/leagues\/MLB\/2019.shtml\">2019 league-wide strikeout rate<\/a> was 22.9%.  So for that extra 2.6% strikeout rate you get a cleanup hitter who hit 38 bombs.  Sometimes you have to understand that you give some stuff up to get other stuff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s what the 2021 opening day lineup looks like now: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>SS Turner (r)<\/li><li>RF Soto (l)<\/li><li>1B Bell (s)<\/li><li>LF Schwarber (l)<\/li><li>DH Harrison (r)<\/li><li>3B Castro (r)<\/li><li>2B Garcia (l)<\/li><li>CF Robles (r)<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Right handed heavy at the bottom, but excellent balance at the top.  If you want to put <strong>Castro <\/strong>at 2B and <strong>Kieboom <\/strong>at 3B all it does it put another righty at the #8 spot.  It is also worth noting that Schwarber could DH and Harrison (who can play 5 different positions) can move out to Left.  This still leaves open a bench RH bat like <strong>Ryan Zimmerman<\/strong>, who would be an excellent $2M signing.  This move likely pushes Soto to RF; can he handle it?  Robles might be busy in 2021 covering lots of ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Payroll implications: With this move I have the Nats at around $172.1M for 2021.  <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Au_xTIni1eJbDGzravS1482wBbzN9DBQaOY1wwo2Mr0\/edit#gid=1520401900\">Cots has them slightly higher<\/a> ($172.7M); both our totals have estimates for arb salaries for Turner, Bell and Soto.  If the nats maxed out to $210M that leaves nearly $38M left to play with.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Word broke Saturday that Washington DC had made news for another reason besides insurrection; Kyle Schwarber signed a 1yr $10M deal to come to DC for 2021. Short version of this post: I like this move. A lot. I&#8217;ve liked Schwarber ever since Chicago drafted him in the 1st round out of Indiana (bucking the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3186,3314,2437,36,133],"class_list":["post-16866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","tag-carter-kieboom","tag-juan-soto","tag-kyle-schwarber","tag-ryan-zimmerman","tag-starlin-castro"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16866"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16866\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16869,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16866\/revisions\/16869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}