{"id":17194,"date":"2021-07-13T12:46:36","date_gmt":"2021-07-13T16:46:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17194"},"modified":"2021-08-02T09:22:32","modified_gmt":"2021-08-02T13:22:32","slug":"nats-2021-top-10-picks-with-ranks-and-thoughts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17194","title":{"rendered":"Nats 2021 top 10 picks with ranks and thoughts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/House-Brady-via-primetimesportstalk.com_-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/House-Brady-via-primetimesportstalk.com_-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17198\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/House-Brady-via-primetimesportstalk.com_-1.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/House-Brady-via-primetimesportstalk.com_-1-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Yes I know, this is the same picture i used yesterday.  Might as well; it seems like the team has blown most of its draft pool on him.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Note: I have updated the Draft Tracker for the 2021 draft, both the master board and the 2021 draft notes boards).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY\/\">Master Draft Board<\/a>, all Years to 2005<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY\/\">2021 Draft worksheet<\/a>:<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I have more details about signing bonus calculus and player notes\/twitter accounts on the 2021 worksheet, in case you&#8217;re wondering why I separate them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By now, you&#8217;ve probably heard about our picks and read a ton of responses in the commentary.  Nonetheless, here&#8217;s some thought and insight into our 2021 picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using various pundit draft board rankings (listed at the bottom for reference), here&#8217;s how our picks were thought of before the draft.&nbsp; Along with some commentary from me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>1st Round\/#11 overall:\u00a0<strong>Brady House<\/strong>, SS\/3B Winder Barrow HS (GA).\u00a0 \u00a0Law=11.\u00a0 MLBPipeline=8.\u00a0 BA=7.\u00a0 Fangraphs=9.\u00a0 ESPN=5.  Prospects1500: 6<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thoughts<\/strong>: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17187\">Discussed in a separate post here<\/a>.  Short version: great pick, great value for a guy who many pundits thought would go top 3-5.  Based on where the pundits generally had House ranked, the Nats definitely seemed to get solid value even at the #11 spot in the draft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>2nd round\/#47 overall:\u00a0<strong>Daylen Lile<\/strong>, OF Trinity HS (KY).  Louisville commit.  Law > 100.\u00a0 MLBPipeline=80.\u00a0 BA=62.\u00a0 Fangraphs ~80.\u00a0 ESPN=47.  Prospects1500: 70.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thoughts<\/strong>: MLB&#8217;s scouting reports describe him as a gap hitter, but his size (6&#8217;0&#8243;) makes you wonder if he can develop power.  Despite his understated stature, he&#8217;s apparently limited to LF because of a lack of arm strength?  A curious pick, especially since he was projected more like a 3rd rounder.  Is this a value pick to save on bonus money?  I can&#8217;t imagine so; a HS player in the 2nd round isn&#8217;t taking a discount.  Also, not for nothing &#8230; another prep player.  Is <strong>Mike Rizzo<\/strong> gearing up for a possible rebuild by going young in the draft?   A completely typical Nats pick (<strong>Brendan Beck<\/strong>, rhp from Stanford) went just a few picks later, a famous guy who you would have thought was a shoe-in for the Nats.  Based on the scouting ratings, it seems across the board that the Nats overpaid for this pick.  I thought one scouting report in BA was especially prescient: &#8220;<em>Lile\u2019s profile has been one that teams prefer to send to college where he will have a chance to prove his hitting ability<\/em>.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>3rd Round\/#82 overall:\u00a0<strong>Branden Boissiere<\/strong>, an OF\/1B from University of Arizona.   Law > 100.\u00a0 MLBPipeline=159.\u00a0 BA=143.\u00a0 Fangraphs >100 .\u00a0 ESPN > 100. Prospects1500: 181<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thoughts<\/strong>: Seems like a slot-saver once again.  Boissiere is 1B limited (listed as an OF but that was limited LF exposure early in his career).  He can definitely hit though: slash line on the year: <a href=\"https:\/\/arizonawildcats.com\/sports\/baseball\/stats\">.369\/.451\/.506 but only 5 homers<\/a>.  Sweet swing, not a ton of power, <strong>Mark Grace<\/strong> comp.  Another odd pick though in the grand scheme of things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>4th round\/#112 overall: <strong>Dustin Saenz<\/strong>, a LHP from Texas A&amp;M.    MLBPipeline=189.\u00a0 BA=143.\u00a0 Prospects1500: 136.  <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thoughts<\/strong>: The scouting reports list him as TAMU&#8217;s swing man for most of his career but was a weekend starter this year.  He had decent numbers on the season; in 14 starts a <a href=\"https:\/\/12thman.com\/sports\/baseball\/stats\/2021\">4.27 ERA, 1.26 whip, 104\/23 in 84ip<\/a>.  I like those K\/IP numbers a lot, especially since he&#8217;s pitching in the SEC.  He had a couple of rough outings this season against top SEC teams (Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas all got to him), but he finished his SEC slate by pitching 8 innings of 2-hit ball against LSU.  Scouting reports have him sitting low 90s and being undersized (5&#8217;11&#8221;).  Seems like a bit of a slot saver yet again, but likely a decent lefty matchup reliever arm at the next level with deception.  I&#8217;m beginning to wonder if the Nats promised Brady House &#8230; well, the house.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>5th Round\/#143 overall: <strong>TJ White<\/strong>, a prep OF from Dorman HS (SC).  MLBPipeline= n\/r.\u00a0 BA=360.\u00a0 Prospects1500: 346<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thoughts<\/strong>: Is Mike Rizzo sick today?  he&#8217;s taken three high school players in his first 5 rounds after taking just a handful of prep players in the top 10 rounds in the last decade.  White is somewhat unknown, but is listed as having 70 power at BA, a switch hitter, and is an Indiana recruit.  Corner OF limited apparently, making him the third positionally challenged player the team has taken.  Is he underslot?  Maybe; if he&#8217;s ranked in the mid 300s at best, that&#8217;s a 10th round player projection.  If they offered him anywhere close to slot he may take it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>6th round\/#173 overall: <strong>Michael Kirian<\/strong>, LHP from Louisville.  BA=274.\u00a0 Prospects1500: 262<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thoughts<\/strong>: Rizzo&#8217;s second college arm &#8230; and likely his second lefty reliever.  He was a reliever for most of his Louisville career, transitioned to the rotation this year and struggled.  His 2021 stat line: <a href=\"https:\/\/gocards.com\/sports\/baseball\/stats\">4.80 ERA, 1.41 whip, 75\/28 K\/BB in 69 IP<\/a>.  He seemed to be doing fine in the rotation, but then had 4 straight starts against UVA, Clemson, Duke and UNC where he got shelled each week, then got dumped from the rotation for the rest of the season. He&#8217;s huge though: 6&#8217;6&#8243; and the scouting reports say he creates deception and odd angles.  Great; a loogy.  More and more i&#8217;m thinking these are all underslot guys to pay House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>7th Round\/#203 overall: <strong>Jacob Young<\/strong>, OF\/2B from UFlorida.  BA=354, Prospects1500: 200<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thoughts<\/strong>: A more slight guy (6&#8217;0&#8243; and just 175) who played LF this year (to make way for the more &#8220;famous&#8221; <strong>Jud Fabian<\/strong>, but who is clearly a CF and also can play 2B.  Listed as a speed guy with a solid hit tool, he started all 60 games for Florida this year and slashed <a href=\"https:\/\/floridagators.com\/sports\/baseball\/stats\">.315\/.385\/.461<\/a> with 5 homers and 13\/14 SBs.  Not too bad; I mean, at least he had 5 homers.  Per BA, he led the Gators in hits (80), doubles (16), runs (56) and stolen bases (13) this spring.  Not a bad pick in the 7th round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>8th round\/#233 overall: <strong>Will Frizzell<\/strong>, 1B from Texas.  BA=418, Prospects1500=211.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thoughts<\/strong>: Well, Frizzell absolutely destroyed at the plate this year; <a href=\"https:\/\/12thman.com\/sports\/baseball\/stats\/2021\">his slash line<\/a> was .343\/.451\/.686 with 19 homers in 56 games.  Lefty hitting 1B who BA says is a poor defender and may have to DH in pro ball.  Well, lets let him hit his way up before we worry about where he&#8217;s playing.  Despite his power, he&#8217;s listed as a plus hitter as well, so maybe the team has someone to push <strong>Drew Mendoza<\/strong> now.  An excellent senior sign in the 8th round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>9th round\/#264 overall: <strong>Cole Quintanilla<\/strong>, RHP from Texas.  BA=300.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thoughts<\/strong>: College reliever for Texas, led their staff in ERA on the year with an excellent <a href=\"https:\/\/texassports.com\/sports\/baseball\/stats\">1.35 era\/0.83 whip<\/a>.  42\/11 K\/BB in 40 innings (26 appearances).  So he projects as a middle reliever.  BA notes &#8220;Quintanilla is the typical fastball-slider reliever with a 91-95 mph average fastball and a plus low-80s slider.&#8221;  TJ surgery in 2018 (wouldn&#8217;t be a Nats draft if we didn&#8217;t draft someone who had TJ), but no issues reported.  Decent senior pick at this juncture, can&#8217;t complain especially since he likely signs for a fraction of slot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>10th round\/#274 overall: <strong>Darren Baker<\/strong> 2B from Cal Berkely.  BA=187, Prospect1500=326<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thoughts<\/strong>: well, we drafted him in 2017, likely as a favor to <strong>Dusty Baker<\/strong> (who we summarily fired), and now we got him again in 2021.  In the interim, he&#8217;s moved from SS to 2B.  Lets see if its &#8220;third time&#8217;s a charm&#8221; about drafting a second baseman from UC Berkeley; we tried it in 2009 (2nd rounder <strong>Jeff Kobernus<\/strong>) and in 2012 (2nd rounder <strong>Tony Renda<\/strong>).  Baker has almost no power (just 1 homer in 4 years in college) but has a ton of speed (top 10 in the nation in SBs) and is a plus defender at 2B.  BA thinks he could play OF, but his arm is limited.  Solid hitter (<a href=\"https:\/\/calbears.com\/sports\/baseball\/stats\">slashed .327\/.402\/.354<\/a>).  I suppose a 10th round senior sign who fills a spot of need (have you guys seen the 2B depth chart in the minors right now?  Its MLFAs, NDFAs and 20th rounders).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>top 10 picks Draft summary:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>7 hitters, 3 Arms (wow)<\/li><li>3 prep, 7 college (wow)<\/li><li>Of the 3 arms, all three likely projecting as relievers<\/li><li>Of the 7 bats, two likely 1B, one CF, one 2B, two likely corner OF and House, who likely moves to 3B.  <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Conjecture on over\/under slot needs in top 10 rounds<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Players who are likely commanding over-slot: House<\/li><li>Players who are likely signing for slot: Lile, White, Young<\/li><li>Players who are likely under slot: Boissiere, Saenz, Kirian, Frizzell, Quintanilla, Baker.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Draft Board Rankings<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\" id=\"block-28019c16-4e8b-429a-bb18-489f69f28f3d\"><li>The Athletic (<strong>Keith Law)\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theathletic.com\/2580901\/2021\/05\/13\/2021-mlb-draft-big-board-version-1-0-keith-law-ranks-the-top-100-draft-prospects-with-a-new-name-at-no-1\/?source=rss\">5\/13\/21 Draft Board<\/a>.<\/li><li>MLBPipeline (<strong>Callis &amp; Mayo<\/strong>):  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/prospects\/draft\/\">Top 250 draft board<\/a>.<\/li><li>BaseballAmerica (<strong>Carlos Collazo<\/strong>):  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/rankings\/2021-mlb-draft-top-prospects\/?utm_source=Newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email\">2021 BA 500<\/a>.<\/li><li>Fangraphs (<strong>Eric Longenhagen<\/strong>): <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/prospects\/the-board\/2021-mlb-draft\/summary?sort=-1,1&amp;type=0\">Fangraphs The Board<\/a> top 100<\/li><li>ESPN\u00a0<strong>(Kiley McDaniel<\/strong>): <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/insider\/story\/_\/id\/31553650\/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-30-two-shortstops-lead-race-next-month-top-pick\">MLB Draft top 150 Rankings 3.0 6\/3\/21<\/a><\/li><li>CBSSports (<strong>R.J Anderson<\/strong>); <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/mlb-draft-prospects-2021-ranking-top-50-players-in-the-class-with-jack-leiter-at-no-1\/\">2\/15\/21 top 50 ranks<\/a>. and his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/mlb-draft-2021-ranking-top-50-players-with-two-shortstops-in-top-three-and-jack-leiter-as-top-pitcher\/\">7\/2\/21 top 50 ranks<\/a> for comparison.<\/li><li>D1baseball.com: 4\/22\/21 <a href=\"https:\/\/d1baseball.com\/prospects\/2021-college-top-100-draft-prospects\/\">mid-season top 100 College draft prospects<\/a>, 7\/6\/21 post-season <a href=\"https:\/\/d1baseball.com\/prospects\/2021-top-150-college-draft-prospects\/\">top 150 College Draft Prospects<\/a><\/li><li>PerfectGame: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.perfectgame.org\/Rankings\/Draft\/DraftPlayerRankings.aspx?ver=13\">Jan 2021 Draft Class Ranks<\/a><\/li><li>Prospects365 (<strong>Ian Smith<\/strong>):  <a href=\"https:\/\/prospects365.com\/2021\/01\/04\/ian-smiths-2021-mlb-draft-big-board-v2-0\/?utm_source=feedly&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=ian-smiths-2021-mlb-draft-big-board-v2-0&amp;utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=ian-smiths-2021-mlb-draft-big-board-v2-0\">v2.0 of the board Jan 2021<\/a>.<\/li><li>Baseball Prospectus <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseballprospectus.com\/prospects\/article\/68097\/top-50-draft-prospects\/\">Top 50 Draft rankings<\/a> (paywall).<\/li><li>Prospects1500: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prospects1500.com\/mlb-draft\/2021-mlb-draft-prospects-top-350\/?utm_source=feedly&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=2021-mlb-draft-prospects-top-350\">top 350 draft prospects<\/a> 7\/9\/21<\/li><li>2080Baseball: <a href=\"https:\/\/2080baseball.com\/2021\/07\/2021-final-mlb-draft-ranking\/\">top 125 prospects<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Note: I have updated the Draft Tracker for the 2021 draft, both the master board and the 2021 draft notes boards). Master Draft Board, all Years to 2005 2021 Draft worksheet: I have more details about signing bonus calculus and player notes\/twitter accounts on the 2021 worksheet, in case you&#8217;re wondering why I separate them. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,5,4324],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-draft","category-natsgeneral","category-prospects"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17194","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17194"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17194\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17202,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17194\/revisions\/17202"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}