{"id":17308,"date":"2021-11-10T10:10:05","date_gmt":"2021-11-10T15:10:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17308"},"modified":"2022-03-10T16:07:36","modified_gmt":"2022-03-10T21:07:36","slug":"nats-2021-rule-5-analysis-and-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17308","title":{"rendered":"Nats 2021 Rule-5 Analysis and Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Donovan Casey is a possible Rule-5 addition … any others?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Its our Annual rule 5 protection analysis post!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every time I re-do a post that I know i’ve done in the past, I scan back to get the last few links. For this piece; this is one of the longest running posts I do. Here’s links to past years posts on this topic: 2020<\/a>, 2019<\/a>, 2018<\/a>, 2017<\/a>, 2016<\/a>, 2015<\/a>, 2014<\/a>, 2013<\/a>, 2012<\/a>, 2011<\/a>, 2010<\/a>. We have managed to do this post every year, without fail, since the blog started. That might be the sole recurring piece that I can say that about on this blog. We also do a post-mortem post comparing our predictions to actual roster additions; we’ll post that the day after the roster additions occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each year, around the 20th of November is the “Day to file reserve lists for all Major and Minor league levels” for MLB teams. In other words, this is the day that players need to be added to 40-man rosters to protect them against the rule 5 draft, which occurs a couple weeks later at the winter meetings. 2021 is an odd year of course, since 12\/1\/21 is the day the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires between the MLBPA and the owners, and unless there’s an agreement in place (highly doubtful) many pundits believe the MLB-component of the winter meetings may not occur as the owners seem likely to lock out the players. So, this may be academic for now; if there’s no meeting, there’s no rule-5 draft. Maybe they’ll re-do the entire CBA and eliminate the entire concept of rule-5 with some hard deadlines for free agency (instead of the wishy washy service time clock that is annually abused by teams to screw over players’ earning potential). But for now, we’ll assume that we’re going to have a Rule-5 draft, eventually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s the “rules\/guidelines” for rule 5 eligiblity for 2021: any 4-year college-aged draftee from 2018 or before who isn\u2019t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming December, and any high-school aged draftee\/International Free Agent from 2017 or before is newly eligible this year, assuming they were at least 18 as of June 5th of that year.  There\u2019s always a couple of guys who have specific birthdays that move them up or down one way or the other; i\u2019ll depend on the Roster Resource rules and the Draft Tracker for exact details, but apologies in advance if I miss someone. Also, thanks to the 2021 season sell-off, we’ve acquired a ton of new players, and hopefully I havn’t forgotten anyone in this analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vital resources for this analysis: the Big Board<\/a>, the Draft Tracker<\/a>, and Roster Resource<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Group 1: Newly Eligible 2018 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hitters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n