{"id":17758,"date":"2022-07-25T16:20:22","date_gmt":"2022-07-25T20:20:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17758"},"modified":"2022-07-25T16:25:49","modified_gmt":"2022-07-25T20:25:49","slug":"evaluating-nats-trade-candidates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17758","title":{"rendered":"Evaluating Nats Trade Candidates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/SotoJuan-2019ws-via-nypost.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/SotoJuan-2019ws-via-nypost-1024x682.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16539\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/SotoJuan-2019ws-via-nypost-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/SotoJuan-2019ws-via-nypost-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/SotoJuan-2019ws-via-nypost-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/SotoJuan-2019ws-via-nypost.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Is he getting traded? Source NYPost<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Now that we&#8217;re past the draft, the next big date on the MLB calendar is the Trade Deadline.  August 2nd is only a week away, but we&#8217;ve heard almost no trade news so far thanks to teams wrapping up draft signings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, soon we&#8217;ll start to hear about trades.  The Nats, of course, are now dead last in the majors, 3 games worse than the next worst team, projecting to a top lottery pick (now&#8217;s an excellent time to remind everyone that the lottery is open to every non-playoff team &#8230; and the top 6 picks are used, so there&#8217;s a significant chance the Nats could finish with the 30th worst record and pick 7th&#8230; anyway, not the point here).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s a look at the roster, identifying who&#8217;s heading out the door and what they may fetch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Incredibly Likely to be traded<\/strong> <strong>for decent value<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Josh Bell<\/strong>: FA to be, hitting the crap out of the ball this year, nearly a 3\/4\/5 slash line.  He&#8217;s going to be popular as a rent-a-bat.  Teams looking for offense are going to come calling.  <strong>Likely return<\/strong>: Nats probably net a team&#8217;s top-10 prospect and a secondary lower level\/younger prospect in the 10-15 range.<\/li><li><strong>Nelson Cruz<\/strong>: has a $3M buyout but is also a FA since he signed a 1 year deal with the express intent of being right where he is now; available as a rent-a-DH.  Unfortunately he&#8217;s not really hit as well as expected, so his return will be limited.  <strong>Likely Return<\/strong>: 15-20th ranked prospect.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>We&#8217;ll Take what we can get:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Cesar Hernandez<\/strong>: FA to be, he&#8217;s really been weak at the plate but can play 2B and SS and could give some veteran utility cover. <strong>Likely Return<\/strong>: a 20+ ranked prospect from the low minors.<\/li><li><strong>Steve Cishek<\/strong>, FA to be, has been healthy and relatively serviceable this year, with a 101 ERA+.  But its not like he&#8217;s a lights-out 9th inning guy anymore; he&#8217;s a mid-level 36-yr old reliever.  <strong>Likely Return<\/strong>: a 20+ prospect from the low minors.<\/li><li><strong>Carl Edwards<\/strong> has actually been good: a 3.00 era, good K rates.  Not bad for a MLFA signing.  Still, he&#8217;s not going to fetch much more than Cishek would get.   <strong>Likely Return<\/strong>: a non prospect.<\/li><li><strong>Erasmo Ramirez<\/strong>: Basically the same story as Cishek and Edwards: mid30s RH reliever with decent numbers this year.  I&#8217;m sure a team with some bullpen injuries or issues would give up a lower-level prospect for a guy like this.   <strong>Likely Return<\/strong>: a non prospect.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Not Likely to be Traded despite being FAs to be:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Wil Harris<\/strong>, FA to be but currently on the 60-day DL with TOS-related scar tissue issues.  No value here, and his 3yr\/$24M contract works out to nearly $1M per INNING!  <\/li><li><strong>Joe Ross<\/strong>, FA to be and out with his second TJ.  <\/li><li><strong>Anibel Sanchez<\/strong>, who is back in the rotation after missing the first half, but hasn&#8217;t exactly shown that he&#8217;s of any value, getting more or less shelled in his first two starts. Can&#8217;t imagine getting anything of value for him.<\/li><li><strong>Ehire Adrianza<\/strong>, who signed on as another backup utility guy, has a 43 OPS+ this year. No trade value.<\/li><li><strong>Sean Doolittle<\/strong>: on 60-day DL with an elbow sprain and isn&#8217;t getting off that list anytime soon.  No trade value.<\/li><li><strong>Maikel Franco<\/strong>: taking a flier on the former top prospect has somewhat paid off, but he&#8217;s still only hitting .238 and never walks. Its hard to see anyone really giving up anything in return.<\/li><li><strong>Alcides Escobar<\/strong>: how is it possible that we bought up so many veteran utility guys and none of them can hit?  Oh yeah, because that&#8217;s why there&#8217;s so many of them on the FA market.<\/li><li><strong>Tyler Clippard<\/strong>: finally got his shot, and he&#8217;s on the DL right at the trade deadline.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pre-FA players thinking outside the box<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Kyle Finnegan<\/strong>?  With Rainey&#8217;s injury he&#8217;s the new closer, and if there&#8217;s one thing bad teams don&#8217;t need, its a closer.  He&#8217;s one of the only viable arms in the bullpen and could be moved for prospects.  <strong>Likely Return<\/strong>: a 10-15th ranked system prospect.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Juan Soto <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then we get to Soto.  I&#8217;m not a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/juan-soto-trade-ranking-seven-interested-teams-by-how-well-positioned-they-are-to-land-nationals-star\/\">national correspondent with industry sources<\/a> out the wazoo, so I have no idea what teams are interested or who&#8217;s willing to give up what.  Pundits are saying there&#8217;s 6 or 7 teams available.  I&#8217;ve read &#8220;4-5 players&#8221; as an expected return.  I really hope they don&#8217;t force teams to take <strong>Corbin<\/strong>&#8216;s salary, b\/c i&#8217;d rather have the prospects, but <a href=\"https:\/\/theathletic.com\/3435069\/2022\/07\/20\/juan-soto-mlb-trade-market\/\">Bowden says that&#8217;s what the team is asking<\/a>..   We&#8217;ll see what happens.  <strong>Likely Return<\/strong>: 3 top 10 prospects plus two pre-arb Major Leaguers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Total return if all this actually happens?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Two pre-arb Major leaguers<\/li><li>Four top10 prospects<\/li><li>Two 10-15th ranked prospects<\/li><li>A couple 20+ ranked prospects<\/li><li>a couple non-prospects<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Thoughts?  did I forget anyone?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Now that we&#8217;re past the draft, the next big date on the MLB calendar is the Trade Deadline. August 2nd is only a week away, but we&#8217;ve heard almost no trade news so far thanks to teams wrapping up draft signings. So, soon we&#8217;ll start to hear about trades. The Nats, of course, are now [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17758"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17758\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17764,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17758\/revisions\/17764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}