{"id":17770,"date":"2022-07-28T13:38:49","date_gmt":"2022-07-28T17:38:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17770"},"modified":"2022-07-28T13:38:49","modified_gmt":"2022-07-28T17:38:49","slug":"nats-2022-draft-class-signing-bonus-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17770","title":{"rendered":"Nats 2022 Draft class Signing Bonus Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17735\">2022 draft class review<\/a>, I went through a rough guess as to how I thought the bonus calculations would go, and how many of our 20 picks would sign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lets see how my predictions went, now that we&#8217;ve gotten all the bonus figures publicized for our 19 draftees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a complete list of the 2022 draft classes, see the <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY\/\">Draft Tracker<\/a> and specifically the &#8220;2022 Draft Class&#8221; tab.  For &#8220;proof&#8221; of bonus amounts see the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/draft\/tracker\/2022\/all\/team\/nationals\">MLBpipeline draft tracker<\/a> or the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/draft-history\/mlb-draft-database\/#\/?Year=2022&amp;Round=0&amp;TeamId=1012&amp;Position=&amp;SchoolName=&amp;FourYearSchoolType=false&amp;JuniorCollegeType=false&amp;HighSchoolType=false&amp;OtherSchoolType=false&amp;StateOrCountry=&amp;Signed=&amp;SigningBonusMin=0&amp;SigningBonusMax=0&amp;PlayerName=&amp;OverallNumber=0\">BaseballAmerica draft tracker<\/a>, which as of this publishing have all 19 of our signed players&#8217; bonus amounts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Overall Bonus Machinations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Nationals had a total bonus pool of $11,013,900 (which was oddly raised by a few thousand dollars just days before the draft, so all my initial numbers were off in the draft tracker).  Add 5% overage of $550,695 and their real working bonus pool was exactly <strong>$11,564,595.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Their top 10 picks totaled exactly 11,388,200 in bonus money<\/li><li>Which left them exactly $176,395 in &#8220;extra&#8221; dollars they could throw at picks in the 11-20 range, over and above the $125k standard bonus.<\/li><li>They gave $125k extra to Young, then $50k extra to Peoples.<\/li><li>So, at the end of the day, they left exactly $1,395 of bonus dollars on the table.  At least per my xls.  Its possible someone got an &#8220;extra&#8221; $1,395 but probably not.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s using your bonus pool to its max effect!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Overall Draft Class Signing success<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Prediction<\/strong>: I predicted 17 or 18 of the top 20 signing, thinking we&#8217;d struggle to sign #11 Young and would not sign two of the prep players in the 11-20 range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Actuals<\/strong>: we did sign Young, and prep player Cooper, and thus got 19 of our 20 picks to sign.  Only our 20th pick, a great fielding Prep SS in Ortiz from IMG Academy who the scouting reports all said would benefit from going to college anyway.  So, my prediction was a bit more pessimistic than what occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pick by Pick Slot analysis, top 10<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s my predictions for the first 10 spots:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Green: Over slot  ($200k)<\/li><li>Bennett: Under slot (-$100k)<\/li><li>Lipscomb: Under slot (-$200k)<\/li><li>Cox: Over slot? (+$100k)<\/li><li>McKenzie: Slot<\/li><li>Ochoa: Over slot (+$200k)<\/li><li>Cornelio: Under slot (-$50k)<\/li><li>Huff: Under slot (-$75k)<\/li><li>Romero: Slot<\/li><li>Stehly: Under slot (-$75k)<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Actuals:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Green: Basically Slot ($2,300 over slot for an even $6.5M figure).  This was a shock to most of us, who were convinced that the Nats (who have a history of overpaying top draft picks even in the face of conventional leverage wisdom) would over-pay here.  Nope: they basically got Green at slot value, a big achievement for a prep player in the modern game.<\/li><li>Bennett: Exactly Slot.  I thought he&#8217;d get a take a bit of a haircut, but did not.<\/li><li>Lipscomb: Exactly Slot.  Again, a surprise here.  This is a senior with no leverage, and I read somewhere (can&#8217;t find the source) that this represented the largest bonus ever given to a college senior.  I&#8217;m not sure that&#8217;s right; <strong>Mark Appel<\/strong> was the #1 overall pick as a senior and signed for more than $6M.  So, I&#8217;d need a fact check on the claim here.<\/li><li>Cox: Definitely over slot; an even $1M to represent more than $450k over slot.<\/li><li>McKenzie: Predicted slot, went for slot.<\/li><li>Ochoa: went over slot, but not by as much as I thought it would take.  He signs for just $66k over the slot value.<\/li><li>Cornelio: Slot: for some reason I thought he&#8217;d go slightly under slot, perhaps due to performance.  <\/li><li>Huff: Slot; same reasoning as Cornelio.  <\/li><li>Romero: Predicted slot, went slot.<\/li><li>Stehly: Predicted under-slot &#8230; and signed for the bare minimum of $10k, saving $144k in the bonus pool.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>So, I went 5 and 5 for slot predictions in the top 10.  And at the end of the 10 rounds, the team had right around $175K &#8220;extra&#8221; to throw at their round 11-20 guys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pick by Pick Slot analysis<\/strong>, rounds 11-20<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s what I thought would happen from a bonus perspective for the 11-20th rounders<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>11. Young: tough sign, needs over slot money<\/li><li>12. Peoples; signs, but needs over slot money<\/li><li>13. Grissom: signs for slot<\/li><li>14. Lawson: signs, may not even need full slot<\/li><li>15. Luckham: signs, probably for a nominal amount below slot<\/li><li>16. Cooper: would not sign, would need over slot<\/li><li>17. Klassen: signs, might not need full $125k slot<\/li><li>18. Lord: signs, might not need full $125k slot<\/li><li>19. Thomas: signs, probably not full $125 slot<\/li><li>20. Ortiz: no way he signs; we don&#8217;t have enough money<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Actuals:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>11. Young signs, for $250 or $125k over slot and in line with a 6th-7th rounder.  I thought perhaps the team would net themselves around $500k extra from their top 10 machinations and be able to throw bigger money at Young. In the end, it didn&#8217;t take nearly as much money to buy him out of an Oklahoma State commitment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>12. Peoples: signs for $175k, or $50k over the slot.  We thought he&#8217;d sign since he wasn&#8217;t really rated highly as a prep player and wasn&#8217;t committed to a big-time baseball school, and in the end it only took $50k to entice him to go pro.  $175k pays him like an 8th-9th rounder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>13. Grissom signs for $125k, which slightly surprised me given that he had eligibility left.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>14. Lawson signs and gets full $125k slot as a fourth year junior.  Good for him; he did have a bit of leverage so he could demand more than a token dollar amount typically given to true seniors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>15. Luckham signs for $125k.  Not bad for a senior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>16. Cooper signs for $125k, as a prep kid with a college commitment, and it doesn&#8217;t take any overages to get him.  Which is odds, and makes me wonder if the videos we saw of him bely his true talent level.  This is a tools-first pick, and he may be in the FCL for quite some time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>17. Klassen signs for $125k.  College Junior bat, could have gone back to school, but takes the cash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>18. Lord signs for $125k.  Nothing to note here; as with Luckham, Klassen, Thomas &#8230; all these guys got offered the max non-bonus pool affecting amount and took it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>19. Thomas signs for $125k, as with Luckham not bad for a senior from a small school.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>20. Ortiz does not sign.  No surprise here, he was heavily scouted due to his presence at IMG, has the defensive side down pat but needs time to develop a hit tool, and going to FIU gives him three years to develop and try to raise his draft stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>So, that&#8217;s how the bonus figures worked.  Its time to get these players to Florida and get them playing!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In my 2022 draft class review, I went through a rough guess as to how I thought the bonus calculations would go, and how many of our 20 picks would sign. Lets see how my predictions went, now that we&#8217;ve gotten all the bonus figures publicized for our 19 draftees. For a complete list of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-draft"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17770"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17770\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17774,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17770\/revisions\/17774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}