{"id":17844,"date":"2022-10-18T09:34:39","date_gmt":"2022-10-18T13:34:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17844"},"modified":"2022-10-18T09:34:39","modified_gmt":"2022-10-18T13:34:39","slug":"2023-draft-order-not-finalized","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17844","title":{"rendered":"2023 Draft Order &#8230; not finalized"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/tank.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"643\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/tank-1024x643.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17845\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/tank-1024x643.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/tank-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/tank-768x482.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/tank-1536x964.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/tank.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>This is a Tank.  This is also what Washington did this season.  Photo credit: some German newspaper; does it really matter?  \ud83d\ude42<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(quick personal note: apologies for the radio silence here.  I have not posted since September 9th, more than 6 weeks ago.  Not that there was a ton to post about; when the team emptied its coffers of all remaining players with any trade value, it wasn&#8217;t a surprise how the rest of the season was going to play out.  That being said, we moved at the end of August and i&#8217;m working multiple consulting gigs, and, well, its been tough to put the time in on this blog with so many other items pressing for my time.  I hope to do better this off-season, doing some typical non-tender, arbitration, rule-5 posts, etc).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It seems typical that the Nats would manage to finish with their worst record since moving to 2005 (and nearly their worst record ever as a franchise, being only pipped by the amazingly bad 52-110 1969 Montreal debut season) in the exact same year that MLB goes to a draft lottery at the top of the draft.  So, instead of having the biggest bonus pool and first crack at the top draft talent &#8230; we have to wait to see where we actually pick.  Perhaps this is penance for the amazing set of circumstances that led  us to pick 1st overall two years in a row, which netted us both <strong>Stephen Strasburg<\/strong> and <strong>Bryce Harper<\/strong> and set the franchise on a pathway towards multiple playoff runs and the 2019 World Series title.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How quickly the tides turn, and this year we finished 55-107, which guaranteed us the worst record in the league by a full 5 games over the Oakland Athletics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, how does the lottery work?  Tanks to this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/bayarea\/giants\/2023-mlb-draft-lottery-odds-how-it-works\">excellent NBCsports article<\/a>, here&#8217;s how it works:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Each non-playoff team is assigned odds of getting the top pick.  <\/li><li>The worst three teams each have equal odds at 16.5%, meaning that despite the fact that Washington was worse than Oakland and Pittsburgh, we all have the same chance.<\/li><li>The lottery only lasts the first 6 picks, then goes in direct order after that.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So, We have basically a 1 in 6 chance of getting the #1 pick.  We have right around a 50% chance of getting a top 3 picks, and we can pick no worst than 7th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tankathon.com\/mlb\">exact draft odds\/reverse standings for 2022<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, its a coin flip that we get into the top 3, meaning its highly likely we get a really solid pick.  I&#8217;ve already started collecting names for the top of the 2023 draft.  Right now the top prospects are looking like the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>College Prospects<\/em><\/strong><em>:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Dylan Crews<\/strong>, OF\/RF LSU. Opted out of 2020 draft as a projected 2nd rounder, now might go 1-1. Hit .362\/.453\/.663 as a freshman.  sept 2022 #1 player in the class.<\/li><li><strong>Jacob Gonzalez<\/strong>, SS Ole Miss. Bonafide SS who hit .355\/.443\/.561 with 12 home runs and more walks (38) than strikeouts (34) his freshman year.  #1 prospect in class Dec 2021.<\/li><li><strong>Chase Dollander<\/strong>, RHP Tennessee. 2nd team AA in 2022, mid 90sfb with good off-speed. Helium guy mid 2022, not sure why he&#8217;s jumped other candidates.<\/li><li><strong>Rhett Lowder<\/strong>, RHP Wake Forest.  ACC pitcher of  year in 2022, starred for Team USA summer 2022.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Prep Prospects<\/em><\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Max Clark<\/strong>, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS.  Vanderbilt commit, lefty hitting OF prospect #1 prep player in the class as of mid 2021.  Went 5-5 one day at Area codes.  #1 prep player in draft per BA Sept 2022.<\/li><li><strong>Walker Jenkins<\/strong> OF, South Brunswick HS, Southport, N.C.  18U national team as underclassman in 2021.  #1 HS player in class per Fangraphs Dec 2021, #2 prep in class per BA Sept 2022.<\/li><li><strong>Thomas White<\/strong>, LHP Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass.  Uncommitted.  Highly polished LHP starter.<\/li><li><strong>Cam Collier<\/strong>, 3B Mount Paran Christian HS, Kennsaw, Ga..  Louisville commit, huge power, biggest bat in class.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So, even in the worst case, where the Nats are shut out of the lottery and pick 7th, one of these players is absolutely going to be available, or a player who pops up this coming spring.  So, all is not lost: don&#8217;t forget that we have gotten <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY\/edit#gid=1713757797\">really solid players drafting in the #4-6 overall range<\/a> in the past:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Ryan Zimmerman<\/strong> was 4th overall in 2005<\/li><li><strong>Ross Detwiler<\/strong> was 6th overall in 2007<\/li><li><strong>Anthony Rendon<\/strong> was 6th overall in 2011 (via a set of circumstances that still boggles the mind to this day)<\/li><li><strong>Elijah Green<\/strong> was 5th overall this year.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The lottery order likely is set at the Winter Meetings, so we&#8217;ll revisit this post then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Until then &#8230; are you finding yourself actually rooting for Philadelphia and <strong>Bryce Harper<\/strong> in the playoffs?  Are you rooting for <strong>San Diego<\/strong> with their own ex-Nat super star <strong>Juan Soto<\/strong>?  Great games so far.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(quick personal note: apologies for the radio silence here. I have not posted since September 9th, more than 6 weeks ago. Not that there was a ton to post about; when the team emptied its coffers of all remaining players with any trade value, it wasn&#8217;t a surprise how the rest of the season was [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,5,2036],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-draft","category-natsgeneral","category-post-season"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17844","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17844"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17844\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17847,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17844\/revisions\/17847"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17844"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17844"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17844"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}