{"id":17856,"date":"2022-11-11T13:43:45","date_gmt":"2022-11-11T18:43:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17856"},"modified":"2022-11-11T13:43:45","modified_gmt":"2022-11-11T18:43:45","slug":"qualifying-offers-out-this-isnt-how-the-system-is-supposed-to-work","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=17856","title":{"rendered":"Qualifying Offers out &#8230; this isn&#8217;t how the system is supposed to work"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Judge-Aaron-yankees-via-sikids.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Judge-Aaron-yankees-via-sikids-1024x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17857\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Judge-Aaron-yankees-via-sikids-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Judge-Aaron-yankees-via-sikids-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Judge-Aaron-yankees-via-sikids-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Judge-Aaron-yankees-via-sikids-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Judge-Aaron-yankees-via-sikids.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Soon to be named MVP Judge headlines the 14 QO recipients .  Photo via SI Kids online\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/11\/08\/mlb-gm-meetings-2022-live-updates-trades-and-rumors\/\">GM Meetings<\/a> are underway, now that the little matter of the 2022 World Series is settled (sorry <strong>Bryce<\/strong>, still no title for you).  And thus the 2022-2023 off-season is underway.  We&#8217;ll have our regular content (things like Rule-5 protection analysis\/predictions, non-tender deadline predictions, and of course prospects), but first up is the Qualifying Offer!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The player&#8217;s union really wants to get rid of it; the owner&#8217;s don&#8217;t really care since it operates as yet another safeguard on their payrolls.  This past summer the owners offered to get rid of the QO in return for an international draft &#8230; which in my mind would likely kill foreign baseball in a number of countries.  The union thankfully said no thanks, so here we are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s the 14 players who got a QO:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<table id=\"tablepress-106\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-106\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1\">\n\t<th class=\"column-1\">2022<\/th><th class=\"column-2\">Aaron Judge<\/th><th class=\"column-3\">RF<\/th><th class=\"column-4\">PSI Sports Management<\/th><th class=\"column-5\">New  York Yankees<\/th><th class=\"column-6\">1yr\/$19M<\/th><th class=\"column-7\">19<\/th><th class=\"column-8\">19<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody class=\"row-striping row-hover\">\n<tr class=\"row-2\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Jacob deGrom<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">SP<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">VC Sports<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">New York Mets<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">5yr\/$137.5M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">27.5<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">33.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Xander Bogaerts<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">SS<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">Scott Boras\/Boras Corporation<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Boston Red Sox<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">6yr\/$120M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">20<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-4\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Dansby Swanson<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">SS<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">Excel Sports Management<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Atlanta Braves<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">1yr\/$10M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">10<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-5\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trea Turner<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">SS<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">CAA<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Los Angeles Dodgers<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">1yr\/$21M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">21<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-6\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Willson Contreras<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">C<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">?? Unknown<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Chicago Cubs<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">1yr\/$9.625<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">9.625<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">9.625<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-7\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Carlos Rodon<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">SP<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">Scott Boras\/Boras Corporation<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">San Francisco Giants<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">2yr\/$44M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">22<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">22.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-8\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Chris Bassitt<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">SP<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">Pro Star Management<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">New York Mets<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">1yr\/$8.8M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">8.8<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">8.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-9\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Brandon Nimmo<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">OF<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">CAA<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">New York Mets<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">1yr\/$7M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">7<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-10\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Nathan Eovaldi<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">SP<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">ACES<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Boston Red Sox<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">4yr\/$68<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">17<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-11\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Anthony Rizzo<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">1B<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">Sports One<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">New York Yankees<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">2yr\/$32M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">16<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-12\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Joc Pederson<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">OF<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">Excel Sports Management<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">San Francisco Giants<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">1yr\/$6M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">6<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-13\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Martin Perez<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">SP<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">Octagon<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Texas Rangers<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">1yr\/$4M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">4<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-14\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2022<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Tyler Anderson<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">SP<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">GSE<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Los Angeles Dodgers<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">1yr\/$8M<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">8<\/td><td class=\"column-8\">8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<!-- #tablepress-106 from cache -->\n\n\n\n<p>Notice something about this list?  They&#8217;re all Big market teams!  Breakdown by team:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Yankees: 2<\/li><li>Mets: 3<\/li><li>Red Sox: 2<\/li><li>Dodgers: 2<\/li><li>Giants: 2<\/li><li>Cubs: 1<\/li><li>Rangers: 1<\/li><li>Braves: 1<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I mean &#8230; there&#8217;s not one &#8220;mid-sized&#8221; or smaller market team here.  its basically a list comprised of players from the largest markets in the land.   <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Combined_statistical_area\">By CMSA<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>New York: 1<\/li><li>Los Angeles: 2<\/li><li>Chicago: 4<\/li><li>San Francisco: 5<\/li><li>Boston: 6<\/li><li>Dallas: 7<\/li><li>Atlanta 10.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>That missing #3 spot?  Yeah that&#8217;d be us.  Washington-Baltimore CMSA is now the 3rd largest in the area, having recently overtaken Chicago.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>the larger point is this: these are the sport&#8217;s biggest and wealthiest teams basically set to gain a bunch of extra picks because they happen to have a bunch of highly paid players on their rosters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now that being said &#8230; there are some obvious QO candidates and some guys who just got tagged in one who&#8230; are kind of a surprise.  Lets categorize: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Players who will reject the QO and will get FAR more in AAV: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Judge, DeGrom, Turner, Bogarts<\/strong>, <\/li><li>These are all going to be major FAs this off-season, getting 30M or more a year.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Players who will reject the QO and who will get a bit more in AAV but longer term deals: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Swanson, Rodon<\/strong>: probably getting 5-6 years at $22-$25M per.<\/li><li><strong>Contreras <\/strong>is the #1 catcher available and likely gets a 4-5 year deal at a tick above the QO.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Players who may struggle to get an AAV contract matching the $19.65M QO<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Nimmo<\/strong>: interestingly he&#8217;s always had solid production but is &#8220;only&#8221; on a 1yr\/$7M deal at the end of his arb years.  Odd.  He stepped up his power this year though and MLB trade rumors is projecting a 5yr $110M deal.  We&#8217;ll see.  Seems farfetched.<\/li><li><strong>Eovaldi<\/strong>: he was decent this year, but not earth shattering while making $17M AAV.  I could see him getting like a 3-4 year deal at $20M AAV.<\/li><li><strong>Rizzo<\/strong>: 34yrs old, had a great 2022 in a lefty-hitter&#8217;s paradise in NY, but is 1B only.  I can&#8217;t imagine him doing much better than his $16M AAV contract, and needs to be careful where he goes. <\/li><li><strong>Bassitt<\/strong> is a serviceable mid-rotation starter with solid stuff.  He&#8217;s the kind of guy you get in the 15th round of your fantasy draft and you look like a genius.  He only made $8.8M this year, but seems set to get a decently sized contract right above the QO. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Players who may want to take that QO<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Pederson<\/strong>: he blew it up in 2022, putting in a 144 OPS+ season after not really being effective at all the last few seasons.  Is this enough for a team to sign  him to a multi-year deal at $20M per?  Doubt it: he clearly likes SF and he should take that QO to see if he can replicate 2022, then go back out on the market unencumbered in 2023.<\/li><li><strong>Perez<\/strong>: he went from years of ERAs in the 4s and 5s to a 2.73 ERA season in 2022.  He played for just $4M this year; he&#8217;s almost a lock to accept the QO since no other team is going to give up a pick for a guy who might regress to the mean. <\/li><li><strong>Anderson<\/strong>: Like Perez, he went from a 4.81 ERA to a 2.57 ERA with the Dodgers, and after making just $8M this year seems a lock to take the QO and give it another go with Los Angeles.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The GM Meetings are underway, now that the little matter of the 2022 World Series is settled (sorry Bryce, still no title for you). And thus the 2022-2023 off-season is underway. We&#8217;ll have our regular content (things like Rule-5 protection analysis\/predictions, non-tender deadline predictions, and of course prospects), but first up is the Qualifying Offer! [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nonnatsbaseball"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17856"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17856\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17861,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17856\/revisions\/17861"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}