{"id":1800,"date":"2011-06-24T15:04:59","date_gmt":"2011-06-24T19:04:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1800"},"modified":"2011-06-24T15:04:59","modified_gmt":"2011-06-24T19:04:59","slug":"age-analysis-of-short-a-and-rookie-league-squads","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1800","title":{"rendered":"Age Analysis of Short-A and Rookie League squads"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This is a statistical look at the relative ages of our debut Short-A and Rookie league pitching staffs, as compared to the rest of their league, for the purposes of giving future context to the performances of our staff as the season progresses.\u00a0 I initially did this for all the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1288\">full-season minor league affiliates<\/a> in Early May, and this time am catching the initial rosters.<\/p>\n<p>The definitions I&#8217;m using for each &#8220;age classification&#8221; are as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;Really Young&#8221; is a pitcher in the lowest quartile of pitchers by age, meaning he&#8217;s one of the youngest 25% of pitchers in the league.<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Young&#8221; is a pitcher in the 25-50% quartile.<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Old&#8221; is a pitcher in the 50-75% quartile<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Really Old&#8221; is a pitcher in the 75th quartile or above.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I&#8217;m using these quartiles because (frankly) MS Excel makes it pretty easy to calculate :-).\u00a0 So keep that in mind when you see a pitcher listed as &#8220;Really Old&#8221; for the league but may be right at the 75th-76th quartile range.<\/p>\n<p>For the Short-A season, just looking at pitchers, here&#8217;s how the percentiles broke down:<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"210\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"171\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"39\"><\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td width=\"171\" height=\"20\">average&#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td width=\"39\" align=\"right\">22.20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">youngest&#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">17.88<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">25th Quartile &#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">21.10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">50th Quartile (median) &#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">22.31<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">75th Quartile &#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">23.18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">oldest&#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">27.01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>The short-A age ranges are nearly identical to the age ranges for Low-A, a fact that kind of surprised me.\u00a0 I would have figured that the short-A squads would be filled with College Jrs and Srs newly drafted, while the low-A team would be mostly HS and DSL grads that were working their way up the system.\u00a0 In reality there&#8217;s almost no age difference between the two leagues (Short-A is younger across the board, usually by a few months).<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the Nationals Short-A pitching staff as of 6\/22\/11:<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"468\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"93\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"145\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"87\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"57\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"86\"><\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td width=\"93\" height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td width=\"145\">Colin Bates<\/td>\n<td width=\"87\">3\/10\/1988<\/td>\n<td width=\"57\">23.29<\/td>\n<td width=\"86\">Really Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Ryan Demmin<\/td>\n<td>4\/5\/1988<\/td>\n<td>23.22<\/td>\n<td>Really Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Brian Dupra<\/td>\n<td>12\/15\/1988<\/td>\n<td>22.52<\/td>\n<td>Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Pedro Encarnacion<\/td>\n<td>6\/26\/1991<\/td>\n<td>19.99<\/td>\n<td>Really Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Wirkin Estevez<\/td>\n<td>3\/15\/1992<\/td>\n<td>19.27<\/td>\n<td>Really Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Benjamin Grisz<\/td>\n<td>1\/26\/1990<\/td>\n<td>21.41<\/td>\n<td>Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Travis Henke<\/td>\n<td>7\/9\/1988<\/td>\n<td>22.96<\/td>\n<td>Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Chad Jenkins<\/td>\n<td>3\/12\/1988<\/td>\n<td>23.28<\/td>\n<td>Really Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Alex Kreis<\/td>\n<td>5\/30\/1989<\/td>\n<td>22.07<\/td>\n<td>Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Kelvin Lopez<\/td>\n<td>1\/22\/1990<\/td>\n<td>21.42<\/td>\n<td>Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Silvio Medina<\/td>\n<td>6\/3\/1990<\/td>\n<td>21.06<\/td>\n<td>Really Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Richard Mirowski<\/td>\n<td>4\/30\/1989<\/td>\n<td>22.15<\/td>\n<td>Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Blake Monar<\/td>\n<td>6\/16\/1989<\/td>\n<td>22.02<\/td>\n<td>Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Auburn<\/td>\n<td>Manny Rodriguez<\/td>\n<td>1\/12\/1989<\/td>\n<td>22.44<\/td>\n<td>Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>This is a relatively &#8220;young&#8221; squad, all things considered.\u00a0 Bates and Demmin have both dominated their first two starts, not surprising given their status as being relatively old for the league.\u00a0 Jenkins and Demmin were both &#8220;demoted&#8221; to the Short-A squad from full squad teams, so its not as if the franchise wasn&#8217;t trying to put these guys in the right spot.\u00a0 Even the three guys listed as &#8220;old&#8221; only missed the 50% percentile cutoff by a month or so.\u00a0 Our other three starters in Short-A (Estevez, Encarnation and Lopez)\u00a0 are all young or really young for the level, something to keep in mind if they struggle.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>How about the GCL Squad? Here&#8217;s the averages across the whole GCL league:<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"237\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"162\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"75\"><\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td width=\"162\" height=\"20\">average&#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td width=\"75\" align=\"right\">21.13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">youngest&#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">16.87<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">25th Quartile &#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">19.78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">50th Quartile (median) &#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">21.09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">75th Quartile &#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">22.39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">oldest&#8211;&gt;<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">28.04<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>That&#8217;s right; there&#8217;s a kid who is 16 years, 10 months playing pro ball in the GCL league.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t know about you, but there&#8217;s something wrong to me to have children that young playing a pro sport.\u00a0 Anyway.<\/p>\n<p>We don&#8217;t really know at this point who the GCL starters are, but here&#8217;s the GCL Nationals squad as of 6\/24\/11:<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"468\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"93\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"145\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"87\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"57\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"86\"><\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td width=\"93\" height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td width=\"145\">Gregory Baez<\/td>\n<td width=\"87\">5\/5\/1992<\/td>\n<td width=\"57\">19.13<\/td>\n<td width=\"86\">Really Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Matt Chico<\/td>\n<td>6\/10\/1983<\/td>\n<td>28.04<\/td>\n<td>Really Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Kenneth Ferrer<\/td>\n<td>12\/13\/1989<\/td>\n<td>21.53<\/td>\n<td>Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Tyler Hanks<\/td>\n<td>3\/19\/1990<\/td>\n<td>21.26<\/td>\n<td>Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Ben Hawkins<\/td>\n<td>11\/4\/1989<\/td>\n<td>21.63<\/td>\n<td>Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Inocencio Heredia<\/td>\n<td>12\/11\/1991<\/td>\n<td>19.53<\/td>\n<td>Really Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Mark Herrera<\/td>\n<td>3\/11\/1990<\/td>\n<td>21.29<\/td>\n<td>Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Nathan Karns<\/td>\n<td>11\/25\/1987<\/td>\n<td>23.58<\/td>\n<td>Really Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Brandon King<\/td>\n<td>11\/14\/1990<\/td>\n<td>20.61<\/td>\n<td>Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Bobby Lucas<\/td>\n<td>8\/12\/1987<\/td>\n<td>23.87<\/td>\n<td>Really Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Anthony Marcelino<\/td>\n<td>1\/21\/1993<\/td>\n<td>18.42<\/td>\n<td>Really Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Christopher McKenzie<\/td>\n<td>12\/6\/1989<\/td>\n<td>21.55<\/td>\n<td>Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Christian Meza<\/td>\n<td>8\/3\/1990<\/td>\n<td>20.89<\/td>\n<td>Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Adalberto Mieses<\/td>\n<td>1\/1\/1990<\/td>\n<td>21.48<\/td>\n<td>Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Andy Santana<\/td>\n<td>12\/5\/1990<\/td>\n<td>20.55<\/td>\n<td>Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Todd Simko<\/td>\n<td>12\/5\/1988<\/td>\n<td>22.55<\/td>\n<td>Really Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">GCL Nationals<\/td>\n<td>Jason Smith<\/td>\n<td>8\/7\/1990<\/td>\n<td>20.88<\/td>\n<td>Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Just for the Record, rehabbing Matt Chico is the oldest player in the GCL by nearly three years.<\/p>\n<p>I see a lot of &#8220;olds&#8221; and &#8220;really olds&#8221; for this level.\u00a0 We know that Nathan Karns has struggled with injury ever since his 2009 drafting, so he&#8217;s understantable.\u00a0 Bobby Lucas JUST signed a few days ago (our 2011 27th rounder) and played at a weak Div-1 team, so he makes sense in the GCL to see what he has.\u00a0 Likewise with Todd Simko, our 2011 21st round pick.\u00a0 So, Lets wait and see if these guys earn quick promotions to short-A to play with their contemporaries.\u00a0 Remember, we drafted so many arms it is going to be difficult to find spots for all of them.<\/p>\n<p>Other 2011 &#8220;old&#8221; draftees on this squad include Ferrer and Hawkins.\u00a0 Mieses is a DSL grad who pitched well in 2010 in a starting role.\u00a0 Meanwhile, Hanks and Herrera were 2010 juco draftees and slightly &#8220;old&#8221; for the level.\u00a0 Lastly McKenzie was with Hagerstown but had three horrific starts in a row early in the season and was put back in Extended Spring.\u00a0 Unfortunately for him, his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.minorleaguebaseball.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=571936\">first GCL outing<\/a> was not good either; 4 hits and 3 walks in a third of an inning, resulting in 7 runs and an ERA of 126.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is a statistical look at the relative ages of our debut Short-A and Rookie league pitching staffs, as compared to the rest of their league, for the purposes of giving future context to the performances of our staff as the season progresses.\u00a0 I initially did this for all the full-season minor league affiliates in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-minorspitching"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1800","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1800"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1800\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1813,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1800\/revisions\/1813"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1800"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1800"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1800"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}