{"id":18057,"date":"2023-06-19T13:22:34","date_gmt":"2023-06-19T17:22:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=18057"},"modified":"2023-06-19T13:22:34","modified_gmt":"2023-06-19T17:22:34","slug":"fangraphs-nats-top-31-prospect-list","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=18057","title":{"rendered":"Fangraphs Nats Top 31 prospect list"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/henry-cole-via-mlb.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/henry-cole-via-mlb.com_-1024x512.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18058\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/henry-cole-via-mlb.com_-1024x512.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/henry-cole-via-mlb.com_-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/henry-cole-via-mlb.com_-768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/henry-cole-via-mlb.com_.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Cole Henry unleasing another pitch, hoping he doesn&#8217;t incur another arm injury.  Photo via mlb.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll take a quick break from CWS to talk about prospect rankings.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, believe it or not, the final major pundit in the prospect ranking space has finally dropped its &#8220;preseason ranking&#8221; list for the Nats.  <strong>Kiley McDaniel<\/strong> and Fangraphs released their pre-season Nats top 31 list last week (its 31 instead of a more normal number because they drive the notable prospects by their internal &#8220;Future Value&#8221; rating, and the Nats happened to have exactly 31 guys meet the threshold; other teams had many more or far fewer).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.fangraphs.com\/washington-nationals-top-31-prospects-2023\/\">McDaniel&#8217;s list is &#8230; well, its different<\/a>.  I&#8217;d say that more than half his rankings are what i&#8217;d describe as wild deviations from the rest of the industry.  Lets get into it.   Here&#8217;s his full list:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<table id=\"tablepress-113\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-113\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1\">\n\t<th class=\"column-1\">Fangraphs Rank<\/th><th class=\"column-2\">Last Name<\/th><th class=\"column-3\">First Name<\/th><th class=\"column-4\">Position<\/th><th class=\"column-5\">Yr<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody class=\"row-striping row-hover\">\n<tr class=\"row-2\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">1<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Wood<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">James<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (Corner)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2021 2nd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">House<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Brady<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">SS\/3B<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2021 1st<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-4\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">3<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Cavalli<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Cade<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2020 1st<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-5\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">4<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Vaquero<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Cristian<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2022 IFA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-6\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">5<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Henry<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Cole<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2020 2nd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-7\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">6<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Millas<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Drew<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">C<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2019 7th<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-8\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">7<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Hassell III<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Robert<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2020 1st<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-9\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">8<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Susana<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jarlin<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2022 IFA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-10\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">9<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Baker<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Darren<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">2B<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2021 10th<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-11\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">10<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Lile<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Daylen<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2021 2nd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-12\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">11<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Green<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Elijah<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2022 1st<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-13\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">12<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Rutledge<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jackson<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2019 1st<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-14\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">13<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Bennett<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jake<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2022 2nd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-15\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">14<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Irvin<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jake<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2018 4th<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-16\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">15<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Cruz<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Armando<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">SS<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2021 IFA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-17\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">16<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Acevedo<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Andy<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2023 IFA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-18\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">17<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Pineda<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Israel<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">C<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2016 IFA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-19\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">18<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Shuman<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Seth<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2019 6th<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-20\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">19<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Ward<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Thad<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2018 5th<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-21\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">20<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Brzykcy<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Zach<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Reliever)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2020 NDFA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-22\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">21<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Alu<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jake<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">3B<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2019 24th<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-23\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">22<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Lipscomb<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Trey<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">3B<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2022 3rd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-24\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">23<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">White<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">T.J.<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (Corner)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2021 5th<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-25\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">24<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Saenz<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Dustin<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2021 4th<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-26\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">25<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Willingham<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Amos<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (reliever)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-27\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">26<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Parker<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Mitchell<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2020 5th<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-28\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">27<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Cate<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Tim<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2018 2nd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-29\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">28<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Ferrer<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jose<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP (Reliever)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2017 IFA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-30\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">29<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">De La Rosa<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jeremy<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (Corner)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2018 IFA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-31\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">30<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Ramirez<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Aldo<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2018 IFA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-32\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">31<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Cox<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Brenner<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">2022 4th<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n<p>So, commentary from the top:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The top of his list is ok: Wood, House, Cavalli, even given Cavalli&#8217;s TJ.<\/li><li>Vaquero at #4: we havn&#8217;t seen a rating this high for Vaquero since before the Soto trade pumped up the system with actual, real prospects and not bonus-dollar-amount prospects.  This is just ridiculously speculative.  <\/li><li>Cole Henry at #5 really puts a ton of stock into him recovering fully from TOS, which (ahem Stephen Strasburg) is just not a guarantee.  Early reports on Henry are good, but so far in his collegiate and pro career he&#8217;s presenting as incredibly delicate.<\/li><li>Here&#8217;s where it starts getting weird: Drew frigging Millas is at #6, AHEAD of Robert Hassell.  You know where MLBpipeline had Millas?  30th.  Baseball America?  25th.  Prospects1500?  38th.  Keith Law? Not even mentioned in his top 30.  I mean, i get that he&#8217;s done well so far this year, but this was supposed to be a pre-season list, and the dude hit .211 in AA last year.  Furthermore, he&#8217;s projecting as a backup catcher at the MLB level!  I don&#8217;t get it.<\/li><li>Darren Baker getting some deserved love, up at #9 when many shops don&#8217;t even rank him.<\/li><li>Daylen Lile at #10.  He hit .219 in rookie ball two years ago then missed all of 2022 with TJ, but he&#8217;s #10 in the system ahead of a guy in Elijah Green that some pundits have at #2.  <\/li><li>Green at #11.  Crazy low, as was Hassell.<\/li><li>No love for Jake Bennett, dropping him out of top 10 to #13.  I&#8217;m thinking his 2023 performance so far will correct that going forward.<\/li><li>Andy Acevedo, the next in a long line of Nats prospects ranked highly b\/c they got a lot of money in the IFA signing window despite nobody knowing a thing about them.  Tell me; why is a 16yr old prospect in the DSL more highly ranked, ever, than a college guy whos in AAA?  I honestly wonder why anyone who&#8217;s never even made it to a domestic league is ranked, ever.<\/li><li>Seth Shuman gets some love at #18, though i&#8217;m not sure why.  He had lesser numbers than a guy like Parker at the same level, and is out for the entirety of 2023, but he&#8217;s ranked higher.<\/li><li>TJ White dumped to #23 when most shops have him at #10.  Did we not count 2022 for White?<\/li><li>Dustin Saenz ranked at #24 when nobody else is ranking him at all.  Interesting, especially since he&#8217;s lighting it up right now (finally) and may get promoted soon.<\/li><li>A first time for Amos Willingham to get ranked anywhere; this 17th rounder from 2019 has started 2023 on a roll, being basically unhittable in AA and earning a promotion to AAA.  <\/li><li>Tim Cate hanging on at #27, an odd choice given the other rankings here.<\/li><li>Lastly, Jeremy De La Rosa, a stalwart in the top 10, comes in at #29.  It seems to be because fangraphs has given the guy like a 20  hit tool.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Notable Omissions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Andry Lara: outside the top 31, Generally in the 12-15 range on other lists.  I mean, I get it; the guy hasn&#8217;t performed in either low-A or high-A.  He&#8217;s also 20; if he was from the US he&#8217;d be a sophomore pitching in a regional right now, not in high-A.<\/li><li>Roismir Quintana: outside their top 31, usually in the 15-18 range.  He was on the FCL all star team last  year, but apparently has been squeezed out of the low-A OF and is playing 1B this year.  A 6&#8217;1&#8243; 1B only bat better hit the tar out of the ball, and he hasn&#8217;t.<\/li><li>Matt Cronin: Outside top 31 on fangraphs, usually at least mentioned in the low 20s elsewhere.  I guess lefty relievers don&#8217;t get a ton of prospect love.<\/li><li>Jared McKenzie: Not a huge omission, just noting that others have  him in their mid 20s.<\/li><li>Gerardo Carrillo; how far this guy has fallen, from AA starter prospect to a full season injury early in 2023.  Not sure what it was, but it smells like TJ.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>So, at long last, that&#8217;s the end of the Nats prospect rankings for the season.  Here&#8217;s a link to each list:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.fangraphs.com\/washington-nationals-top-31-prospects-2023\/\"><strong><em>Fangraphs\/Longenhagen Nats top 31 6\/6\/23<\/em><\/strong><\/a> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/prospectdigest.com\/washington-nationals-top-10-prospects-for-2023\/\"><strong><em>ProspectsDigest\/Werner 4\/11\/23 top 10<\/em><\/strong><\/a> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/prospects\/nationals\/\"><strong><em>MLBpipeline Nats top 30 2\/28\/23<\/em><\/strong><\/a> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.prospectslive.com\/prospects-live\/washington-nationals-2023-top-30-prospects\"><strong><em>ProspectsLive nats top30 2\/20\/23<\/em><\/strong><\/a> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/washington-nationals-top-prospects-2023-james-wood-leads-system-full-of-returns-from-team-gutting\/\"><strong><em>RJ Anderson\/CBSsports Nats prospects 2\/6\/23<\/em><\/strong><\/a> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/theathletic.com\/4140789\/2023\/02\/06\/nationals-top-20-prospect-farm-system-ranked\/\"><strong><em>Keith Law Nats top 20 2\/6\/23<\/em><\/strong><\/a> <\/li><li>BA Handbook Jan 2023 (no link, print only)<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.prospects1500.com\/nl-east\/nationals\/washington-nationals-top-50-prospects-2022\/\"><strong><em>Prospects1500\/Caleb Sanders 2023 top 50 1\/20\/23<\/em><\/strong><\/a> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/bleacherreport.com\/articles\/10063144-updated-farm-system-rankings-for-the-2023-mlb-season\"><strong><em>Bleacherreport Joel Reuter Jan 2023<\/em><\/strong><\/a> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseballprospectus.com\/prospects\/article\/79718\/2023-prospects-washington-nationals-prospect-list\/\"><strong><em>BaseballProspectus\/Jarrett Seidler Nats top10 1\/11\/23<\/em><\/strong><\/a> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/stories\/2023-washington-nationals-top-mlb-prospects\/\"><strong><em>BA top 10 12\/1\/22<\/em><\/strong><\/a> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/prospect361.com\/2022\/11\/25\/2023-washington-nationals-top-15-prospects\/\"><strong><em>Prospect361\/Rich Wilson Nov2022 top 15 11\/25\/22<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;ll take a quick break from CWS to talk about prospect rankings. So, believe it or not, the final major pundit in the prospect ranking space has finally dropped its &#8220;preseason ranking&#8221; list for the Nats. Kiley McDaniel and Fangraphs released their pre-season Nats top 31 list last week (its 31 instead of a more [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18057"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18057\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18084,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18057\/revisions\/18084"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}