{"id":18091,"date":"2023-06-28T14:49:20","date_gmt":"2023-06-28T18:49:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=18091"},"modified":"2023-06-28T14:49:20","modified_gmt":"2023-06-28T18:49:20","slug":"baseball-america-nats-top-30-mid-season-check-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=18091","title":{"rendered":"Baseball America Nats top 30 mid-season check in"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/House-Brady-via-primetimesportstalk.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/House-Brady-via-primetimesportstalk.com_.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17188\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/House-Brady-via-primetimesportstalk.com_.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/House-Brady-via-primetimesportstalk.com_-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>House working his way back up the rankings.  Photo via primetimesportstalk.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Now that we&#8217;re past CWS, but not yet to the draft, lets clear out some psots. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If a major prospect scouting shop publishes a top 30 list, you know i&#8217;m all over it.  On June 15th, BA did so for our team.  Here&#8217;s an analysis of the list, looking at players who rose\/fell against BA&#8217;s list in January, as well as how BA&#8217;s rankings for a player may be out of whack with the general consensus by all the major shops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s the Mid-Season BA top 30 list in order:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<table id=\"tablepress-114\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-114\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1\">\n\t<th class=\"column-1\">BA Rank 6\/15\/23<\/th><th class=\"column-2\">Last Name<\/th><th class=\"column-3\">First Name<\/th><th class=\"column-4\">Position<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody class=\"row-striping row-hover\">\n<tr class=\"row-2\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">1<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Wood<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">James<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (Corner)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Hassell III<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Robert<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-4\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">3<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">House<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Brady<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">SS\/3B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-5\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">4<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Green<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Elijah<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-6\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">5<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Cavalli<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Cade<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-7\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">6<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Rutledge<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jackson<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-8\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">7<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Vaquero<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Cristian<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-9\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">8<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Bennett<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jake<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP (Starter)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-10\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">9<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Susana<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jarlin<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-11\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">10<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">De La Rosa<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jeremy<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (Corner)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-12\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">11<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Lile<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Daylen<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-13\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">12<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">White<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">T.J.<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (Corner)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-14\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">13<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Henry<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Cole<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-15\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">14<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Cruz<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Armando<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">SS<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-16\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">15<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Lara<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Andry<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-17\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">16<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Irvin<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jake<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Starter)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-18\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">17<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Lipscomb<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Trey<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">3B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-19\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">18<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Ferrer<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jose<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP (Reliever)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-20\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">19<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Pineda<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Israel<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">C<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-21\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">20<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Brzykcy<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Zach<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP (Reliever)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-22\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">21<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Alu<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jake<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">3B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-23\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">22<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Quintana<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Roismar<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-24\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">23<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Millas<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Drew<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">C<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-25\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">24<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Parker<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Mitchell<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP (Starter)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-26\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">25<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Cronin<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Matt<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP (Reliever)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-27\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">26<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Saenz<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Dustin<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP (Starter)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-28\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">27<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Young<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jacob<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-29\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">28<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Baker<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Darren<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">2B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-30\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">29<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Acevedo<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Andy<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-31\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">30<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Solano<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Edwin<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">SS<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<!-- #tablepress-114 from cache -->\n\n\n<p>Now, here&#8217;s some observations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Same top 2 for BA as in January, and confirming that Wood may be the best player we got in the whole post-World Series dumping.  He&#8217;s settled a bit since his AA promotion, but still has an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.milb.com\/player\/james-wood-695578\">OPS north of .800 in AA<\/a> at age 20.  <\/li><li>They&#8217;ve elevated House a couple spots, and they have him  higher than anyone else had him this spring at #3.  Why?  Because he forced his way into High-A a couple of weeks ago and looks recovered from back and wrist issues.  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.milb.com\/player\/brady-house-691781\">2023 OPS so far<\/a>: .829.  not bad.<\/li><li>Big Riser: Rutledge; #9 in January, #6 now and in stark contrast to other shops, one of which has him all the way down at #17.  And who can blame them?  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.milb.com\/player\/jackson-rutledge-671131\">So far in 2023<\/a>; 11 starts, 3.18 ERA, 1.11 whip in AA.  Last year in Low-A: 20 starts, 4.90 ERA, 1.39 whip.  I mean, who would have predicted that you&#8217;d take a guy who couldn&#8217;t get guys out in Low-A, bump him up two levels, and suddenly he&#8217;s a top prospect again?<\/li><li>Jake Bennett bumped up 3 spots from #11 to #8.  It was probably dumb to start the guy in low-A as a 2nd round pick from a major conference with CWS experience &#8230; and rightfully so, he dominated it in April and early May.  Lets hope he pushes for another promotion and ends the season in AA.<\/li><li>Daylen Lile: what is going on here?  BA had him at #27 in January, basically a non-prospect, now he&#8217;s #11 in the system.  A true CF with some power and a ton of speed (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.milb.com\/player\/daylen-lile-695734\">18 SBs in 19 attempts<\/a>) and he&#8217;s hitting in low-A; he needs a promotion.  But where will he go?  High-A has 40-man player De La Rosa in CF, AA has Hassell, AAA has Alex Call.  In this humble opinion, the Nats could (finally) cut bait on Antuna, who is hitting f*cking .151 in High-A after getting outrighted off the 40-man and it confounds me why he still plays, so as to make some room for Lile or Green, both of whom may need to be promoted soon.<\/li><li>Cole Henry treads water at #13, a bit lower than other shops.  Its a &#8220;show me&#8221; season for Henry, to see if he&#8217;s recovered from a major shoulder issue.  My hops are not high.<\/li><li>BA has bumped up Jake Irvin, rightfully so.  He may be posting a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/teams\/WSN\/2023.shtml\">5.25 ERA in the majors<\/a>, but at least he&#8217;s in the Majors &#8230; which, remember, is the entire point of prospects.  Should Irvin be ranked higher than guys like Susana (#9) or Lara (#15), who can&#8217;t get guys out in the bus league?  Yes he should. <\/li><li>Trey Lipscomb gets a bump up a few spots.  He&#8217;s quietly made his way to AA a year after being drafted &#8230; think about this?  Lipscomb was a 3rd rounder last  year and is in AA, but Bennett was a 2nd rounder and is in High-A.  Why?  Lipscomb may be in AA due to positional scarcity; he&#8217;s not earning it at the plate with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.milb.com\/player\/trey-lipscomb-702358\">sub-700 OPS figure<\/a> right now, and he may very well trade spots with House in a few weeks when Brady needs to get moved up and play 3B.<\/li><li>#21 Jake Alu gets back onto the rankings after being dropped out of the top 30.  #21 seems about right for a 4-A corner infielder\/outfielder type.<\/li><li>Quintana dumped 5 spots, and rightfully so.  He&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.milb.com\/player\/roismar-quintana-692453?stats=career-r-fielding-minors&amp;year=2023\">struggling in Low-A<\/a>, and they&#8217;ve moved him to be a 1B\/DH type.  Not good; he&#8217;s gonna have to really hit to move forward as a 1B only guy.<\/li><li>Mitchell Parker has taken a nose-dive, from #14 in Jan to #24 today.  Rightfully so; he&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.milb.com\/player\/mitchell-parker-680730\">finally getting hit<\/a> after succeeding in Low and High-A in the last couple of years.  I think this was an inevitability; scouts never favored the guy, who seemed to be getting outs mostly due to deception and a funky delivery.  in AA, he&#8217;s been exposed so far.  One of 2 things happens from here: he either &#8220;figures out the level&#8221; in early 2024 and keeps on moving, or he&#8217;s relegated to be &#8220;funky lefty out of the pen&#8221; guy, a role that might get him to the majors faster.<\/li><li>Matt Cronin also dumped a ton of spots, from #18 in January to #25, and rightly so; he&#8217;s getting shelled in AAA as a 25-yr old lefty bullpen arm.  Word of caution; if they&#8217;re a reliever in college &#8230; they better be a really, really good reliever to count on them going forward.<\/li><li>Dustin Saenz pops onto the list at #26 after not being ranked by practically anyone for a while, on the strength of his dominating low-A and getting moved to Wilmington.  Unfortunately, he was already too old for low-A, made one start in high-A and got shelled.  We&#8217;ll see where he goes from here.<\/li><li>Jacob Young also resurrecting his prospect career, popping in at #27.  the 2021 7th rounder without a ton of prospect cred hit .300 in high-A and got moved up to AA, where he&#8217;s sharing an OF with two of our best prospects in Hassell and Wood.  He&#8217;s only 23, and he&#8217;s got some speed even if he&#8217;s undersized.  Should be interesting to see where he goes.<\/li><li>Another guy without much prospect love pops in at #28: Darren Baker.  I mean, the guy is now in AAA, starting at 24, hitting .300.  I&#8217;m not sure why he&#8217;s not a higher-ranked prospect honestly.  Maybe b\/c he&#8217;s got a limited ceiling as a utility 2B guy in the majors.<\/li><li>The last two guys ranked were the top 2 prospects from the 2023 IFA class, Andy Acevedo and Edwin Solano.  I call these types of prospects, &#8220;Call me in 3 years if\/when they show up in Florida.&#8221;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Jan 2023 top 30 players now off the list:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>#16 Thad Ward: probably has exhausted his rookie status at this point.<\/li><li>#23 Evan Lee: what happened to this guy?  Went from AFL darling to 40-man to a lefty reliever who <a href=\"https:\/\/www.milb.com\/player\/evan-lee-681885\">can&#8217;t get guys out in AA<\/a> at age 26.<\/li><li>#26 Gerardo Carrillo; Maybe we over-rated this guy all along.  Ok, maybe *I* overrated this guy all along.  Initially he presented as a more important player in the big Scherzer\/Turner trade; we got back Grey, Ruiz, Carrillo, and Casey.  Clearly Ruiz and Grey were the prizes, Casey a utility throw in (who&#8217;s now 27 in AA hitting .201), and we have Carrillo, who has never really shown he can get guys out above A Ball and is on the season-ending DL list right now.<\/li><li>#28 Tim Cate: BA was one of the last  hold-outs on the Tim Cate prospect bandwagon in January, now even they can&#8217;t find room.<\/li><li>#29 Aldo Ramirez: 8 good starts for Low-A in 2021, and he hasn&#8217;t pitched since.  Missed all of 2022, still on the 60-day dl halfway through 2023.  Will he ever come back?<\/li><li>#30 Will Frizzell, the Mr. Irrelevant of the Jan 2023 list.  The team over-promoted him in the off season, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.milb.com\/player\/will-frizzell-676155\">quickly exposed him in AA as he hit .155<\/a>, now he&#8217;s back in High-A where he should have been, hitting a healthy .889 OPS figure.  Problem is &#8230; he&#8217;s been a full time DH this entire year, not even taking the field at 1B.  Unless he&#8217;s posting a thousand OPS figure, its hard to be a prospect like that.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Other Notable names not ranked:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Brenner Cox: not every prospect shop likes him, and he couldn&#8217;t even come close to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.milb.com\/player\/brenner-cox-702685\">cutting it in Low-A this year<\/a>.  Might be a wasted prep 4th rounder.<\/li><li>Jared MacKenzie: he hit .400 in low-A last year, true CF.  He&#8217;s not bad.  Would you put him above a 1B only guy who&#8217;s the same age but in a lower league?  Probably.<\/li><li>Seth Shuman: Looked great in High-A until a sudden season ending injury (which screams TJ); no wonder he&#8217;s not on the fringes of the top 30.<\/li><li>Samuel Infante, Brandon Boissiere, Jackson Cluff: what happened to these guys?<\/li><li>Yasel Antuna: just kidding.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Now that we&#8217;re past CWS, but not yet to the draft, lets clear out some psots. If a major prospect scouting shop publishes a top 30 list, you know i&#8217;m all over it. On June 15th, BA did so for our team. Here&#8217;s an analysis of the list, looking at players who rose\/fell against BA&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4324],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-prospects"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18091","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18091"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18091\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18113,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18091\/revisions\/18113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18091"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18091"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18091"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}