{"id":1895,"date":"2011-07-09T15:54:20","date_gmt":"2011-07-09T19:54:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1895"},"modified":"2012-11-15T14:18:28","modified_gmt":"2012-11-15T19:18:28","slug":"nats-rotation-cycle-18-goodbadsoso","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1895","title":{"rendered":"Nats Rotation Cycle #18: good\/bad\/soso"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1954\" style=\"width: 262px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/MarquisJason_DrewHallowell_GettyImages_bleacherreport.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1954\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1954\" title=\"MarquisJason_DrewHallowell_GettyImages_bleacherreport.com\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/MarquisJason_DrewHallowell_GettyImages_bleacherreport.com_-252x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"252\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/MarquisJason_DrewHallowell_GettyImages_bleacherreport.com_-252x300.jpg 252w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/MarquisJason_DrewHallowell_GettyImages_bleacherreport.com_.jpg 421w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 252px) 100vw, 252px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1954\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Is Marquis hurting his trade value?  Photo Drew Hallowell\/Getty Images<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The 18th Rotation cycle will be interesting; a day-night doubleheader, then two straight day games for a team that plays most of its games at night, may prove challenging for the Nats, especially considering that the Cubs are completely used to playing day games.\u00a0 This review will include 6 games, since we&#8217;ll need an extra pitcher by virtue of the saturday double-header.<\/p>\n<p>Good<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Livan Hernandez<\/strong> pitched a typically crafty game in the 7\/2 day-game (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_02_pitmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">box\/gamer<\/a>), allowing 2 runs on 6 hits in 7 complete innings with a couple of walks and 6 strikeouts.\u00a0 He left with a ND.<\/li>\n<li><strong>John Lannan<\/strong> pitched pretty well in the 7\/2 night-cap (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_02_pitmlb_wasmlb_2&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">box\/gamer<\/a>), going 7 innings, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits.\u00a0 He walked no-one but only struck out one batter.\u00a0 He sat at 80 pitches upon his removal in a Loss situation.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ross Detwiler<\/strong>&#8216;s first MLB start since last September went pretty well on 7\/5 (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_05_chnmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">box\/gamer<\/a>).\u00a0 5 1\/3, 4 hits, 2 runs (both on a 2-run homer in his final inning), 0 walks and 1 strikeout (he also hit a batter).\u00a0\u00a0 He was only at 78 pitchers mid-way through the 6th when Johnson went to his bullpen immediately after the 2-run homer.\u00a0 The 3-2 lead held on for the win however.\u00a0 For me a very good appearance for Detwiler (in contrast to Maya&#8217;s 4 starts up here).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bad<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Jason Marquis<\/strong> was shelled for 7 runs (6 earned) on 8 hits while only retiring four batters on 7\/3 (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_03_pitmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">box\/gamer<\/a>) and game more reminiscent of his performances in the beginning of last year pre-surgery.\u00a0\u00a0 After a fantastic May and early June, Marquis has now gotten more or less pounded in 3 of his last 5 starts and his trade value has to be plummeting by the week.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Mediocre\/Inconclusive<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong> certainly wasn&#8217;t helped by some &#8220;questionable&#8221; defense, including a routine fly ball that fell to earth and scored two runs instead of ending an inning, in 7\/4&#8217;s scorching win over Chicago (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_04_chnmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">box\/gamer<\/a>).\u00a0 The play in question is yet another piece of evidence why ERAs are misleading; instead of getting a quality start, Zimmerman&#8217;s line on the day goes 6ip, 8hits, 4runs, 1 walk and 5 Ks.\u00a0\u00a0 If that line reads 6ip, 7hits, 2 runs, 1 walk and 5Ks it looks a lot better right?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tom Gorzelanny<\/strong> fell victim (again) to the long ball against the cubs on 7\/6 (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_06_chnmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">box\/gamer<\/a>), giving up 4 runs in 6 innings on two bombs given up to <strong>Carlos Pena<\/strong> and <strong>Aramis Ramirez<\/strong>.\u00a0 Both were no-doubters on bad mistakes over the plate.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Luckily the cardiac kids pulled out a victory later on in the game.\u00a0 Gorzelanny has now given up FOURTEEN homers in 77 innings over 13 starts.\u00a0 One every 5.5 innings, or just about one per start.\u00a0 The league average (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/leagues\/MLB\/2011-standard-pitching.shtml\">per b-r.com anyway<\/a>) is 18 per 180 innings or one every 10 innings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Starter Trends<\/p>\n<p>Relievers of Note and other News<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Chien-Ming Wang<\/strong> threw his 2nd rehab start on 7\/2, this time in high-A for Potomac.\u00a0 As <strong>Adam Kilgore<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/nationals-journal\/post\/chien-ming-wang-throws-four-scoreless-innings-for-potomac-nationals\/2011\/07\/02\/AGtV2qvH_blog.html?wprss=nationals-journal\">reports<\/a>, he pitched 4 scoreless inning, allowing 1 hit and 2 walks.\u00a0 He reportedly hit 91mph, which is great news.\u00a0 I pulled the Pitch f\/x data from Wang&#8217;s 2007 season prior to his injury to try to get a feel for what he was capable of back then.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brooksbaseball.net\/pfxVB\/pfx.php?month=6&amp;day=6&amp;year=2007&amp;game=gid_2007_06_06_nyamlb_chamlb_1%2F&amp;pitchSel=425426&amp;prevGame=gid_2007_06_06_nyamlb_chamlb_1%2F&amp;prevDate=66\">the data<\/a> from June 6th, 2007, one of Wang&#8217;s best games that season.\u00a0 Average fastball of 94, peaks of 97, with great separation between his fastball and his change-up.\u00a0 I didn&#8217;t realize he threw that hard (if you believe the Pitch f\/x data; it is spotty that early in the system&#8217;s history).\u00a0 If the goal is to get his speed back to 94-97, he&#8217;s got a long way to go.<\/li>\n<li>After seemingly turning the page on his struggles this season, <strong>Sean Burnett<\/strong> has failed in his last two outings, including blowing 7\/2&#8217;s game with a poor 8th inning.\u00a0 The team is in desperate need of lefty relievers through-out the system, so its doubtful that Burnett&#8217;s job is in immediate jeopardy.\u00a0 However the acquisition of <strong>JC Romero<\/strong> last week plus the possible conversion of former MLB starter <strong>Matt Chico<\/strong> to a reliever (he&#8217;s currently rehabbing in the GCL and has been alternating between starting and relief appearances) seem to indicate the team is exploring its loogy options.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tyler Clippard<\/strong> is the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/nationals-journal\/post\/tyler-clippard-chosen-to-the-2011-all-star-game\/2011\/07\/03\/AGqPVVwH_blog.html?wprss=nationals-journal\">Nationals lone 2011 all-star<\/a> (Pending <strong>Michael Morse<\/strong>&#8216;s runoff vote), a validation of his dominance over the past couple years in a non-closer role.\u00a0 Some may have an issue with Clippard&#8217;s selection, but in a league that mandates at least one representative from each team he&#8217;s as good as picking Morse, Storen or Espinosa in my book.<\/li>\n<li>Not that he&#8217;s a National, but <strong>Kerry Wood<\/strong> certainly looked out of sorts on 7\/4.\u00a0 1ip, 3 walks, 3 Ks, a hit batsman, a wild pitch and a blown save.\u00a0 Ironically, most of this was done without anyone warming up in the bullpen, and only after Wood walked in the tying run in the 8th did the cubs manager scramble to get someone up.\u00a0 Awful managing on the day, frankly.\u00a0 The first batter Woods airmailed 4 pitches to should have been enough evidence.<\/li>\n<li>The day after his good spot start, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.natsinsider.com\/2011\/07\/zimmermann-to-start-sun-detwiler-to-pen.html\">Johnson announced that Detwiler<\/a> would be staying on the MLB roster and replaces <strong>Collin Balester<\/strong> for the time being.\u00a0 This is in line with Johnson&#8217;s previously stated desire to have a 6th starter\/long man in the bullpen.\u00a0 But the usage of Detwiler remains to be seen.\u00a0 Per Zuckerman&#8217;s article, Johnson will try to use Detwiler only every 4th-5th day (as a starter would do) and perhaps use him in a single inning situation during his &#8220;throw&#8221; days in between starts.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Craig Heist<\/strong> of WTOP <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/#!\/cheist\/status\/89051957456674817\">tweeted<\/a> (h\/t to <strong>Craig Calcaterra<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/hardballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2011\/07\/07\/report-the-yankees-have-a-strong-interest-in-sean-burnett\/comment-page-1\/#comment-159413\">here<\/a>) that the Yankees are interested in <strong>Sean Burnett<\/strong>.\u00a0 This gives me an &#8220;a-ha&#8221; moment, since I was at the 7\/4 game and ran into a Yankees scout who was  trying to be incognito.\u00a0\u00a0  At the time, I couldn\u2019t  figure out who on either team the Yankees may have been looking at; the  starters that day were Zimmermann (untouchable) and Coleman  (replaceable). Our biggest trade chips are Marquis and a bunch of under-performing vets.\u00a0 The Cubs are filled with overpaid, under-performing guys on large contracts. The Nats have almost nothing in the way of lefty relievers in the  organization right now; we\u2019d be hard pressed to move Burnett despite his  struggles this year.\u00a0 Would we be selling low on Burnett based on his struggles in 2011?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"_mcePaste\" style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 217px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\">http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_07_02_pitmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 18th Rotation cycle will be interesting; a day-night doubleheader, then two straight day games for a team that plays most of its games at night, may prove challenging for the Nats, especially considering that the Cubs are completely used to playing day games.\u00a0 This review will include 6 games, since we&#8217;ll need an extra [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,12],"tags":[111,1231,362,37,101,454,1232,137,42,105,39,43,515,41,87,136,51,108,176,128],"class_list":["post-1895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-natsrotationreview","tag-adam-kilgore","tag-aramis-ramirez","tag-carlos-pena","tag-chien-ming-wang","tag-collin-balester","tag-craig-calcaterra","tag-craig-heist","tag-davey-johnson","tag-jason-marquis","tag-jc-romero","tag-john-lannan","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-kerry-wood","tag-livan-hernandez","tag-matt-chico","tag-michael-morse","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-sean-burnett","tag-tom-gorzelanny","tag-tyler-clippard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1895"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1895\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1978,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1895\/revisions\/1978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}