{"id":2035,"date":"2011-09-03T09:01:43","date_gmt":"2011-09-03T13:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2035"},"modified":"2011-09-25T10:16:30","modified_gmt":"2011-09-25T14:16:30","slug":"what-to-do-with-livan-hernandez","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2035","title":{"rendered":"What to do with Livan Hernandez?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_2037\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/hernandezLivan-via-prorumors.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2037\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-2037\" title=\"NATIONALS CARDINALS\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/hernandezLivan-via-prorumors.com_-300x229.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"229\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/hernandezLivan-via-prorumors.com_-300x229.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/hernandezLivan-via-prorumors.com_.jpg 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2037\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Is Livan&#39;s time in Washington coming to an end?  Photo AP\/Tom Gannam via prorumors.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong>Livan Hernandez<\/strong> holds a special place in the hearts and history of the Washington Nationals.\u00a0 He pitched our first game as a franchise.\u00a0 He&#8217;s been our opening day starter four times (including in 2011).\u00a0 And he continues to pitch reasonably well despite a fastball that&#8217;s barely good enough for some adult leagues in the area.\u00a0 He&#8217;s on an incredibly cheap contract for a veteran of his capabilities (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlbcontracts.blogspot.com\/2005\/01\/washington-nationals_01.html\">$1M base for 2011<\/a> with some performance bonuses) and you know pretty much what you get from him year-to-year (roughly a .500 record, roughly 9 to 12 wins, a career 4.37 era).\u00a0 From a salary perspective, he&#8217;s one of the best FA bargains out there (assuming he ends the season with 8 wins, a FA figure of $125,000 per win is fantastic in an age when teams try to get FA pitching at $1m\/win.\u00a0 See my &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=263\">Contract value for FA pitcher<\/a>&#8221; post from last October, which I&#8217;ll update this off season with 2011&#8217;s season results and new signings).<\/p>\n<p>However, in the 2nd half his &#8220;mood swings&#8221; on the mound have become problematic.\u00a0 His <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/gl.cgi?id=hernali01&amp;t=p&amp;year=2011\">starts<\/a> dating to May 30th he&#8217;s as likely to give up 2 runs in 7 innings as he is to give up 6 in 5.\u00a0\u00a0 In my trends his line reads basically good-bad-good-bad-good-bad.\u00a0 In all these games lately where he&#8217;s given up a large parcel of runs, it is in fewer than 5 innings pitched, meaning the game is basically out of hand before it is halfway done and the bullpen has to pick up a hefty workload of 4-5 innings each time.\u00a0 The team today has essentially announced that after his Sunday 9\/4 start he&#8217;s being <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/blog\/nationals-watch\/2011\/sep\/3\/livan-hernandez-starts-nationals-sunday-future-aft\/\">shut down for the season<\/a>, in favor of younger pitchers (read, <strong>Brad Peacock<\/strong>).<\/p>\n<p>What should we do with him for 2012?\u00a0 The Nats blogosphere has weighed in on the topic in the recent past, with opinions <a href=\"http:\/\/natsbaseball.blogspot.com\/2011\/08\/disregarding-livan.html\">pro-<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.capitolbaseball.com\/2011\/08\/livan-is-done-and-there-are-lots-of.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CapitolBaseball+%28Capitol+Baseball%29&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader\">anti-<\/a> Livan.<\/p>\n<p>The answer however may have come to the team almost by accident on 8\/30.\u00a0 In a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.masnsports.com\/the_goessling_game\/2011\/08\/where-does-livan-hernandez-fit-in-the-nationals-future.html\">post-game interview<\/a> after beating the Braves, Livan mentioned more or less that:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>He wants to stay with the team (&#8230; of course, every veteran FA says this.\u00a0 Its on page one of the FA-to-be playbook).<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s willing to be a long reliever, knowing the team has a ton of young starters coming in.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Really?\u00a0 A guy who <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/h\/hernali01-pitch.shtml\">hasn&#8217;t missed a start<\/a> since he got into the league is willing to be a long-man\/spot starter on this team?\u00a0\u00a0 If that&#8217;s the case then I&#8217;m 100% for bringing him back.\u00a0 In this scenario:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Johnson has his long-man out of the pen that he really hasn&#8217;t had all season (Gorzelanny may seem like he fits the bill, but clearly the team is down on him).<\/li>\n<li>Livan can compete for a starter role in the spring and may very well earn a spot on merit anyway.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s great backup insurance for the inevitable injuries and spot starts.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;ll be cheap; he was on $1M this year and probably won&#8217;t be much more expensive next year (for <a href=\"https:\/\/spreadsheets.google.com\/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dDdfMjIxSE9MY2tnSzZUeTVKYUVncWc&amp;output=html\">comparison purposes<\/a>, <strong>Todd Coffey<\/strong> earned 1.35M this year and was so bad that we couldn&#8217;t even flip him at the trade deadline for a low minor leaguer).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I think Livan can effectively fill the <strong>Miguel Batista<\/strong> role of 2010, a role that this team never really replaced for the 2011 season.\u00a0 And his veteran presence in the clubhouse and bullpen.\u00a0 I hope he stays around.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Livan Hernandez holds a special place in the hearts and history of the Washington Nationals.\u00a0 He pitched our first game as a franchise.\u00a0 He&#8217;s been our opening day starter four times (including in 2011).\u00a0 And he continues to pitch reasonably well despite a fastball that&#8217;s barely good enough for some adult leagues in the area.\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[35,41,173,172],"class_list":["post-2035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-brad-peacock","tag-livan-hernandez","tag-miguel-batista","tag-todd-coffey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2035"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2035\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2292,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2035\/revisions\/2292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2035"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}