{"id":2176,"date":"2011-08-19T08:33:32","date_gmt":"2011-08-19T12:33:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2176"},"modified":"2012-11-15T10:36:57","modified_gmt":"2012-11-15T15:36:57","slug":"my-answers-to-boswells-chat-questions-81511-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2176","title":{"rendered":"My answers to Boswell’s chat questions 8\/15\/11 edition"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tom Boswell<\/strong> must have been on vacation; he hasn’t done a chat in weeks.\u00a0 Well, he caught up and more on August 15th’s version<\/a>.\u00a0 Here’s how i’d have answered the questions he took.\u00a0 As always, the “questions” posed are edited here for levity and clarity, and I write my “answer” before reading his.<\/p>\n

Q: Why is Espinosa struggling at the plate?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Probably because the league’s pitchers are adjusting to him the 2nd time around.\u00a0 Plus, there’s a lot of at-bats for advance scouts to learn from and formulate plans of attack.\u00a0 This is a constant adjustment cycle that hitters and pitchers do throughout the year and throughout their careers.\u00a0 There could also be a normal rookie fatigue factor; you play 30 games in a HS season, 60-or so games in a college season, around 70 games in a short-season minor league, and around 140 games in a full-season minor league.\u00a0 To say nothing of the incredible jump in talent from even AAA to the majors.\u00a0 So, some regression is to be expected as the season winds down.\u00a0 Boswell agrees with the adjustments angle and gives some tips for Espinosa to follow.\u00a0 I hope he was reading the chat \ud83d\ude42<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: Will the Nats get to 77 victories?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: With a .479 winning percentage as of 8\/15\/11, that puts them on a pace for 77 wins (rounding down since they’re one game ahead of their pythagorean won-loss record).\u00a0 I would say that the team will likely fail to reach that threshold though; September is going to see debut starts given to guys who have never seen the majors, and the transition is usually pretty tough.\u00a0 I see a few extra losses thrown in there to bring down our win totals to the 73-74 range.\u00a0\u00a0 Boswell sticks by his pre-season prediction of 75.\u00a0 Its looking like a good prediction<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: How has Davey Johnson performed so far?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: I’d say he’s been awful.\u00a0 Even given that Riggleman’s record was improved by a winning streak, the numbers are clear.\u00a0 Riggleman was .500 with this team, Johnson is 17-24 (as of 8\/15\/11).\u00a0 I think he’s poorly managed the bullpen and is poorly handling his starters.\u00a0 On more than one occasion he’s let a starting pitcher make the 3rd out in the 6th, only to yank him one walk or one hit into the 7th.\u00a0 This makes no sense to me!\u00a0 Why give away that at-bat and that out (remember; you only get 27 outs in a game) especially if there’s runners on base and you still have hitters off the bench.\u00a0 What was the point of “strengthening the bench” if you never use those hitters?\u00a0 Grr.\u00a0\u00a0 Boswell agrees with me somewhat, and notes that Johnson quickly ended the lineup manipulations under Riggleman.\u00a0 I’m not going to kill Riggleman for trying those lineup mods; they did lead to a very hot streak for this team.\u00a0 Another interesting fact; the team has given up 10+ runs 6 times so far under Johnson but only twice before that under Riggleman; why is that?\u00a0 The implication seemed to be that Riggleman was over-using Storen and Clippard.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: Will Purke sign by the deadline?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: I didn’t think so: I was wrong<\/a>.\u00a0 Boswell had no answer, just said he’d be watching at midnight on 8\/15\/11<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Should MLB allow close\/controversial plays to be replayed on the scoreboard?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Good question: right now presumably these plays are NOT shown on scoreboards to prevent further fan-distress and histronics from the argumentative players and managers.\u00a0 So, clearly when a play is not shown on the board the tacit message sent to all who are watching is, “oh they’re not showing the play so the umps must have blown it.”\u00a0 It doesn’t seem to really cause that much grief in the NFL, which plays replays instantly (since they have 35 seconds to kill after every play).\u00a0 So I think MLB should just show replays of all plays and not editorialize.\u00a0 Boswell seems to agree<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: In 2013, what are the chances that this is the lineup we see every day: Ramos, Morse, Rendon, Espinosa, Zimmerman, Harper, CF, Werth?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Pretty close in my estimation.\u00a0 We don’t have positions listed but the implication is that Harper is playing LF, Morse 1B and Rendon 2nd.\u00a0 2013 may be a tad too early for Rendon; it may be a safer bet to put Lombardozzi at leadoff\/2nd.\u00a0 I think Harper should be trained as a center fielder.\u00a0 Rendon should be able to transition to LF if need be, but it may be a waste of his abilities.\u00a0 Otherwise this looks pretty close.\u00a0 Boswell says there’s a pretty good chance, talks about Rendon a bit then gets more digs into Desmond despite his not being named here<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Is there any significant relationship between payroll outlay (Nats 9th from bottom) and w\/l record (14th from bottom)?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: (links to use here: list of payroll by team<\/a>, and the current MLB standings 1-30<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0 Nats are, as of 8\/16\/11 18th in W\/L and22nd in total payroll.<\/p>\n

There is definitely a relationship in general between payroll and won\/loss records; I don’t think its a coincidence that the 3 highest payrolls (NYY, Boston, Philadelphia) are also the 3 best teams.\u00a0 However that middle ground is where the direct correlation breaks down.\u00a0 The Chicago Cubs have the 6th highest payroll and are 27th in won\/losses.\u00a0 Meanwhile the Tampa Bay Rays are 29th in payroll but have the 9th best record playing in the AL East.\u00a0 This middle ground is where teams can use superior General Managers, superior scouting and overall organizational improvements to be better than they appear.\u00a0 With respect to the Nationals current positions, I’ll say two things.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Yes we’re clearly doing “better” than our payroll would indicate, a sign that Rizzo is getting good value for his contract dollars.<\/li>\n
  2. Its despicable that a team with owners as wealthy as the Lerners, playing in a $600M stadium that was given to the team, and playing in the wealthiest per-capita area with a top 8 population center in the country isn’t spending more on this team.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Q: Is Batting Average not that good of a stat to use to judge hitters?\u00a0 (in the context of Jayson Werth’s .226 value)
    \n<\/strong><\/p>\n

    A: Batting Average needs context, yes.\u00a0 A well-hit line drive directly at a 3rd baseman is really a better hit ball than a weak tweener ground ball that gets through for a hit.\u00a0\u00a0 If looking at the BA, you really should look at the BABIP (which for Werth<\/a> is now .281 on the season, decent and closer to league norms than earlier, but still below his career .314) and his breakdowns of line drives<\/a>, grounders and flyballs.\u00a0 Here we see that Werth’s LD% is about on a par with his season last year, but his fly balls are way down.\u00a0 Makes sense; more of his flyballs were turning into homers at the cozy Philadelphia park.\u00a0 The stat I really use the most is OPS+, which normalizes the OPS (on base percentage plus slugging) to the league averages and is read more or less as a percentage value as compared to MLB average.\u00a0 Werth’s number there is currently 98, meaning his OPS is about 2% worse than the league norm.\u00a0 Now, this isn’t great (he’s being paid like on of the top 10 players in the league and was 5th in the NL in OPS+<\/a> last year), but it isn’t Adam Dunn.\u00a0 Boswell points out that Werth’s slugging % is down and that he’ll be here til the next president is in office.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Q: Was Strasburg an injury waiting to happen?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    A: Unknown; the injury he suffered (to his elbow) was NOT the injury that all these inverted-W and\/or shoulder loading freaks drone on and on about.\u00a0 So, until Strasburg’s shoulder blows out (as Prior’s did), we won’t know.\u00a0\u00a0 Boswell agrees<\/em><\/p>\n

    Q: What is going on with Zimmerman’s throwing motion?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    A: Looks to me like the team has tried to address his biggest problem; making the un-pressured throw accurately.\u00a0 It happens; you get a ball, have all the time in the world, and fire a ball over your first baseman’s head.\u00a0 Then it gets into your head and you’re in trouble.\u00a0 If this weird motion works (and it certainly seems to) then more power to him.\u00a0 You’ll notice, by the way, that he never makes a throwing error when pressured or on the run.\u00a0 At least not that I can remember.\u00a0 Boswell Agrees<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    Q: Should\/Will the Nats go after Jose Reyes this off season?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    A: Should they?\u00a0 I don’t think so; depends on if they think Desmond has any future or if they can move over Espinosa and call up Lombardozzi.\u00a0 It’d be foolish to spend $12M\/year on a leadoff hitter who is only slightly better than your $440k\/year in-house options.\u00a0 Will they?\u00a0 We’ll see.\u00a0\u00a0 Boswell thinks they shouldn’t and lists a few more good reasons<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    Q: Would you trade all the National’s young pitchers for the Orioles’?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    A: No.\u00a0 Way.\u00a0 Baltimore has a habit of destroying young arms lately.\u00a0 And I like the upside of our slew of prospects versus theirs.\u00a0 Boswell says no way<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    Q: Zimm\/Morse\/Werth in 2012 vs Zimm\/Dunn\/Willingham in 2010?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    A: Offense only?\u00a0 You take the latter.\u00a0 That was three guys with OPS’s in the 140s back to back to back.\u00a0 Werth did it in his contract year but not before or since really.\u00a0 Morse is a breakout guy this year; can he continue?\u00a0 Can Zimmerman stay healthy?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Tom Boswell must have been on vacation; he hasn’t done a chat in weeks.\u00a0 Well, he caught up and more on August 15th’s version.\u00a0 Here’s how i’d have answered the questions he took.\u00a0 As always, the “questions” posed are edited here for levity and clarity, and I write my “answer” before reading his. Q: Why […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,5],"tags":[139,185,164,135,137,115,113,580,613,166,136,129,36,142,125,147],"class_list":["post-2176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chatmailbag-responses","category-natsgeneral","tag-adam-dunn","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-bryce-harper","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-davey-johnson","tag-jayson-werth","tag-jose-reyes","tag-josh-willingham","tag-mark-prior","tag-matthew-purke","tag-michael-morse","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-ryan-zimmerman","tag-steve-lombardozzi","tag-tom-boswell","tag-wilson-ramos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2176"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2176\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5211,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2176\/revisions\/5211"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}