{"id":2386,"date":"2011-09-16T08:37:41","date_gmt":"2011-09-16T12:37:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2386"},"modified":"2011-09-25T01:12:25","modified_gmt":"2011-09-25T05:12:25","slug":"nats-rotation-cycle-30-goodbadsoso","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2386","title":{"rendered":"Nats Rotation Cycle #30: good\/bad\/soso"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_2472\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/peacockbrad_display_image_bleacherreport.com_2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2472\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-2472\" title=\"peacockbrad_display_image_bleacherreport.com\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/peacockbrad_display_image_bleacherreport.com_2-300x168.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"168\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/peacockbrad_display_image_bleacherreport.com_2-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/peacockbrad_display_image_bleacherreport.com_2.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2472\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Brad Peacock gets his first turn in the rotation.  Photo via bleacherreport.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>A reminder; the rotation is now Milone-Lannan-Strasburg-Detwiler-Wang after Detwiler got skipped when the last Dodger game was cancelled.\u00a0\u00a0 Plus we&#8217;ve found out that Brad Peacock will get a start at the end of this cycle, so this is a 6-man review.\u00a0 We may be in a 6-man rotation the rest of the way as well.<\/p>\n<p>Good<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Brad Peacock<\/strong>&#8216;s debut mlb start resulted in 5 scoreless innings and a win on 9\/14.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2464\">Here&#8217;s much more analysis<\/a> on the performance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bad<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>An ugly loss on 9\/10 (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_09_10_houmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">box\/gamer<\/a>) from <strong>John Lannan<\/strong>, the one remaining rotational hold over from the beginning of the season.\u00a0 2 1\/3 innings, 8 hits, 6 runs (4 earned) to raise his season Era from 3.48 to 3.65.\u00a0 Luckily the team has about a dozen relievers to pick up the slack now, and 5 guys combined to finish the game.\u00a0 Of those 5, only <strong>Collin Balester<\/strong> impressed, pitching two clean innings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Mediocre\/Inconclusive<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Tom Milone<\/strong> (or, as found out on Saturday, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.masnsports.com\/the_goessling_game\/2011\/09\/tommy-milone-making-a-name-for-himself-with-nationals.html\">Tommy Milone<\/a>&#8220;) didn&#8217;t &#8220;appear&#8221; to be pitching badly in his 9\/9 start (<a href=\"http:\/\/washington.nationals.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_09_09_houmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was\">box\/gamer<\/a>), but by the time he got yanked in the 6th it seemed to be &#8220;death by paper cuts.&#8221;\u00a0 He gave up 3 runs on 8 hits, had 3 Ks and (of course) zero walks in his tenure.\u00a0 89 pitches, 64 of them strikes.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brooksbaseball.net\/pfxVB\/pfx.php?month=9&amp;day=9&amp;year=2011&amp;game=gid_2011_09_09_houmlb_wasmlb_1%2F&amp;pitchSel=543548&amp;prevGame=gid_2011_09_09_houmlb_wasmlb_1%2F&amp;prevDate=99\">Pitch F\/X<\/a> is still struggling to properly classify his pitches, as were the Masn announcers, who routinely were claiming his cutter is the same speed as his fastball.\u00a0 In reality he throws his four-seamer between 88-90 with good movement, and his cutter comes in at about 86.\u00a0 He mostly as a 2-pitch pitcher last night, fastball and change-up, with five big curves thrown in and just a handful of cutters.\u00a0 He really struggled to get his cutter on-target, but did get a great bat-snapping cutter for a weak grounder early on.\u00a0 He worked the corners really well, but got punished when he missed over the plate.\u00a0 A couple of guys flailed on curves and outside pitches for weak hits (hence my &#8220;paper cut&#8221; comment), and he was victimized each time a lead-off hitter got on base (3 innings with first batter retired?\u00a0 0 runs.\u00a0 3 innings with the lead-off hitter getting on base?\u00a0 Scored each time).\u00a0 Milone definitely works the corners well though, and throws a ton of strikes.\u00a0 I continue to wonder if he will be a Greg Maddox-type pitcher (i.e., someone who doesn&#8217;t throw amazingly hard but has such great control and movement) or if he&#8217;ll flame out into a 4-A type starter, great in the minors but without good enough stuff to be successful in the majors.\u00a0 We need more starts, more evidence.<\/li>\n<li>Wunderkid <strong>Stephen Strasburg<\/strong>&#8216;s 2nd start back was troubling against the Astros on 9\/11 (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_09_11_houmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">box\/gamer<\/a>).\u00a0 From the first pitch (a 94-mph fast ball) he <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brooksbaseball.net\/pfxVB\/pfx.php?month=9&amp;day=11&amp;year=2011&amp;game=gid_2011_09_11_houmlb_wasmlb_1%2F&amp;pitchSel=544931&amp;prevGame=gid_2011_09_11_houmlb_wasmlb_1%2F&amp;prevDate=911\">clearly didn&#8217;t have the velocity<\/a> that he featured in his first start (to say nothing of his 2010 velocity).\u00a0 The Astros worked him for 30+ pitches in the first inning, and he was sitting at 57 pitches through 3 complete innings before getting the safety hook from the dugout.\u00a0 He seemed to be struggling with the control of his 2-seamer and wasn&#8217;t throwing his curve nearly as much as he needed to.\u00a0 On the plus side, his change-up was fantastic, and was directly responsible for 3 of his 4 Ks on the day.\u00a0 And, he really only gave up one hard-hit ball (a liner to right field for an out).\u00a0 Final line: 3ip, 3 hits and one run.\u00a0 The next day, he talked about his lack of velocity, noting that his mechanics were &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/nationals-journal\/post\/stephen-strasburg-looking-forward-to-the-grind-explains-his-momentary-drop-in-velocity\/2011\/09\/12\/gIQAhiUqNK_blog.html?wprss=nationals-journal\">on and off<\/a>.&#8221;\u00a0 Lets hope its that and not something more serious.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ross Detwiler<\/strong> looked great early on 9\/12 (<a href=\"http:\/\/washington.nationals.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_09_12_wasmlb_nynmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was\">box\/gamer<\/a>), giving up just a hit and a walk through five complete, then getting the first two outs in the 6th before unraveling in the 6th.\u00a0 Two quick walks and then two hits ended his night and spoiled an otherwise good looking night.\u00a0 Final line: 5 2\/3, 3 hits, 2 runs and 3 walks.\u00a0 His <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/d\/detwiro01.shtml\">ERA on the season<\/a> now sits at 3.76, but his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/winss.aspx?team=Nationals&amp;pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2011&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2011\">FIP<\/a> stands nearly a point higher (though to be fair his xFIP is nearly in line with his ERA, a good sign for the longer term).\u00a0 In any case, each decent start we see in September makes me feel better about the likely fact that Detwiler&#8217;s going to make the 2012 rotation.<\/li>\n<li>Another start, another piece of the <strong>Chien-Ming Wang<\/strong> puzzle.\u00a0 He went 5 innings on 9\/13 (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_09_13_wasmlb_nynmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">box\/gamer<\/a>), scattering 5 hits through 4 before giving up a 2-run single in the 5th.\u00a0 On the night: 5ip, 9 hits, 2 runs.\u00a0 The improvement this time around was the clean first inning (he had a 12.75 ERA in the first innings of his games this year).\u00a0\u00a0 He was only on 72 pitches when he was pinch hit for in the top of the 6th and could have easily gone 8 complete if the team had any sort of lead.<\/li>\n<li>Sometimes its the little things that make a difference; apparently <strong>Sean Burnett<\/strong>&#8216;s turn-around this season was due to changing his rubber location.\u00a0 According to an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/nationals-journal\/post\/sean-burnett-moved-across-the-rubber-and-changed-his-season\/2011\/09\/14\/gIQAdpHoSK_blog.html?wprss=nationals-journal\">excellent piece<\/a> by <strong>Adam Kilgore<\/strong>, Burnett moved towards the first base side of the rubber about 18 inches.\u00a0 Results?\u00a0 As of July 19th he had a 5.67 era.\u00a0 Since the move he has a 1.37 era.\u00a0 Yeah, that&#8217;s a great adjustment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Starter Trends<\/p>\n<p>2nd half only:<br \/>\nMilone\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0bad,soso<br \/>\nLannan\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0good,good,bad,soso,good,bad,bad,good,soso,good,bad<br \/>\nStrasburg\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0great,soso<br \/>\nDetwiler\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0soso,soso,good,good,bad,bad,soso<br \/>\nWang\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0bad,bad,great,soso,soso,good,bad,soso,soso<br \/>\nPeacock\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0good<\/p>\n<p>Relievers of Note and other News<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The cancellation of the 9\/8 Dodgers game means the team will <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/news\/article.jsp?ymd=20110909&amp;content_id=24438882&amp;notebook_id=24438888&amp;vkey=notebook_was&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">flip-flop<\/a> Wang and Detwiler&#8217;s next starts so that everyone continues on normal rest.<\/li>\n<li>Wang, like every other FA that&#8217;s not necessarily entirely going to be in demand this off-season, has said he <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/news\/article.jsp?ymd=20110909&amp;content_id=24438882&amp;notebook_id=24438886&amp;vkey=notebook_was&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">wants to come back<\/a> to his current team.\u00a0\u00a0 See my thoughts on the team&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2186\">lack of a club option<\/a> on him here.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brad Peacock<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/news\/article.jsp?ymd=20110910&amp;content_id=24498702&amp;notebook_id=24502556&amp;vkey=notebook_was&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">will get a start this week in NY<\/a>, possibly putting the whole staff into a 6-man rotation.\u00a0 Perhaps he&#8217;ll replace Lannan in the rotation to give the Nats a completely new rotation versus opening day.\u00a0 More likely is that he&#8217;ll fit in between regular starters to give the team a 6-man rotation.\u00a0 Can&#8217;t wait to see him stretched out to see his full arsenal of pitches.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Garrett Mock<\/strong> was outrighted to AAA after passing through waivers, meaning that he passed through waivers without another claim (similarly to what happened earlier in the year with Chico in December of last year).\u00a0 On the positive; he stays in the system on the off chance that 2011 was a complete outlier and he can turn around the ship.\u00a0 On the negative; a guy with a plus fastball but who has proven time and again that he can&#8217;t produce consistent results stays in the system to provide continual tempting of the club management (the leader of whom Rizzo has a soft spot for him, having drafted him while working in Arizona).\u00a0 Lets hope he doesn&#8217;t take the job of someone more deserving.<\/li>\n<li>Here&#8217;s <strong>Doug Slaten<\/strong>&#8216;s 9\/13 appearance: two batters, one walk and one HBP.\u00a0 Is anyone surprised by this?\u00a0 Why is this guy still getting the ball?\u00a0 Hasn&#8217;t he shown enough failures as a loogy and in middle relief to show the team everything they need to know going forward?<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/reversestandings\/\">Reverse draft standings update<\/a>: As of 9\/13 the team is projected to draft 12th overall in the 2012 rule-4 draft.\u00a0 With a bad run of form we could easily rise to #8.\u00a0 The 2012 draft is considered to be much weaker than 2011, but there&#8217;s still talent to be found.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/nationals-journal\/post\/nationals-release-2012-schedule\/2011\/09\/14\/gIQABuI0RK_blog.html?wprss=nationals-journal\">2012 preliminary schedules<\/a> have been released and the Nats get the AL east next year!\u00a0 Away to Boston and Toronto, home dates against the Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays.\u00a0 I&#8217;ll predict now that the Saturday Yankees game will break the attendance record at the stadium.\u00a0 Or come darn close to it.<\/li>\n<li>About 5 questions into <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/sportsnation\/chat\/_\/id\/40188\/mlb-insider-keith-law\">Keith Law&#8217;s chat on thursday 9\/15\/11<\/a> (insider only), someone asked him about Peacock and Milone&#8217;s debuts.\u00a0 His opinions thus far mirror mine: Milone may be a 4-A starter and Peacock may end up a reliever.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A reminder; the rotation is now Milone-Lannan-Strasburg-Detwiler-Wang after Detwiler got skipped when the last Dodger game was cancelled.\u00a0\u00a0 Plus we&#8217;ve found out that Brad Peacock will get a start at the end of this cycle, so this is a 6-man review.\u00a0 We may be in a 6-man rotation the rest of the way as well. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,12],"tags":[111,35,37,101,80,90,39,110,51,108,38,34],"class_list":["post-2386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-natsrotationreview","tag-adam-kilgore","tag-brad-peacock","tag-chien-ming-wang","tag-collin-balester","tag-doug-slaten","tag-garrett-mock","tag-john-lannan","tag-keith-law","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-sean-burnett","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-tommy-milone"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2386"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2386\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2477,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2386\/revisions\/2477"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}