{"id":2464,"date":"2011-09-15T11:16:29","date_gmt":"2011-09-15T15:16:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2464"},"modified":"2011-09-25T01:13:40","modified_gmt":"2011-09-25T05:13:40","slug":"thoughts-on-brad-peacocks-debut-start","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2464","title":{"rendered":"Thoughts on Brad Peacock&#8217;s debut start"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_2467\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/peacockbrad_debutstart.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2467\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-2467\" title=\"peacockbrad_debutstart\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/peacockbrad_debutstart-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/peacockbrad_debutstart-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/peacockbrad_debutstart.jpg 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2467\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Brad Peacock fires in another fastball during his debut start last night.  (Photo by Christopher Pasatieri\/Getty Images via sbnation.com)<\/p><\/div>\n<p>As a fan of the team, its always neat to see shots of the parents of an up and coming rookie and to listen to the in-game interviews done by Masn&#8217;s <strong>Debbie Taylor<\/strong>.\u00a0 <strong>Collin Balester<\/strong>&#8216;s dad was wearing a big hawaiian shirt and was clearly telling his entire section &#8220;that&#8217;s my son&#8221; while pointing at the field.\u00a0 <strong>Craig Stammen<\/strong>&#8216;s parents were a bit more reserved and mentioned their faith while praising their son&#8217;s performance.\u00a0 Last night, <strong>Brad Peacock<\/strong>&#8216;s dad (a retired cop) was jubilant (if ill-dressed for the occasion) but gave a great mid-inning interview while holding Brad&#8217;s son on his lap.\u00a0 That kind of stuff reminds you about something you often forget about when following a team of highly-paid athletes; these guys are people too.\u00a0 They have families, they have priorities, hopes and dreams, and their parents root for them just like your own parents rooted for you when you were a kid.\u00a0 Anyway&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Last night 9\/14, Brad Peacock got his first major league start against the Mets, in New York (<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_09_14_wasmlb_nynmlb_1&amp;mode=recap_away&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">box\/gamer<\/a>).\u00a0 Though I posted some thoughts on his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2311\">MLB debut a week ago<\/a>, it was clearly not the most optimal debut for a rookie starter (brought in with runners on base and pitching from the stretch against an MVP candidate).\u00a0 Last night is a much better indication of what kind of pitcher Peacock may be and what his capabilities are setting up hitters multiple times and working deeper into games.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Game Summary<\/strong>: On the night Peacock&#8217;s line was great: 5ip, 0 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks.\u00a0 He had a wild pitch that *maybe* should have been caught by <strong>Jesus Flores <\/strong>but which didn&#8217;t hurt him.<\/p>\n<p>Early on in the game, Peacock was clearly not getting calls when he  missed his spots.\u00a0 He had more than a few calls that were clearly in the  &#8220;K zone&#8221; graphic that MASN uses, but he had missed the target that  Flores set up for him.\u00a0 One of the two hits he gave up was to\u00a0<strong> Reyes<\/strong>, who  he clearly had struck out but didn&#8217;t get the call at the knees.\u00a0 When  he did give up harder-hit balls it was usually on pitches that he missed  his location.\u00a0 On more than a few occasions he missed out over the  plate badly, but the velocity and\/or movement on the pitch usually  bailed him out, getting popups for foul balls.<\/p>\n<p>After cruising through 3 no-hit innings (only blemish was a 2-out  walk to the opposing pitcher), he gave up a decently struck single and  then suddenly struggled to find the plate.\u00a0 He had two walks and a wild  pitch in the 4th to load the bases before getting a harmless popout.\u00a0 He  was more in control in the 5th, getting a nifty play out of <strong>Desmond <\/strong>and  a one-pitch out from the opposing pitcher before having Reyes struck  out (as mentioned before) but giving up the single before retiring <strong> Tejada <\/strong>on a liner to <strong>Werth<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Velocity<\/strong>: His fastball peaked at 95.1mph early, then he seemed to settle into a pattern of low-90s heat.\u00a0 On the night he averaged 92.77mph on the 4-seamer.\u00a0\u00a0 This average MPH was a bit lower than during his MLB debut last week (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.brooksbaseball.net\/pfxVB\/pfx.php?month=9&amp;day=6&amp;year=2011&amp;game=gid_2011_09_06_lanmlb_wasmlb_1%2F&amp;pitchSel=502748&amp;prevGame=gid_2011_09_06_lanmlb_wasmlb_1%2F&amp;prevDate=96\">pitch f\/x for his debut here<\/a>, where he averaged 94.15 and peaked at 95.8) and the commentators noted that Peacock&#8217;s velocity will average lower in starts than in relief efforts.\u00a0 I&#8217;m not sure I believe that necessarily.\u00a0 This team&#8217;s approach with its harder throwing starters has clearly been pitching to contact and working deeper into games at the expense of a couple MPH and a few strikeouts.\u00a0 Was that what we saw last night?\u00a0 Or was Peacock just tired from the adrenaline rush of his first start?\u00a0 Or was an average of 94 versus 92 what we should expect during starts?\u00a0 Everything we&#8217;ve heard from his stellar minor league season mentions a 95mph fastball, and you would have to think that implies a 95 average, not one 95mph heater every now and again while sitting consistently 92.\u00a0 Yes, relievers can generally throw harder, since they go max-effort for an inning as opposed to having to protect their arm for 100 pitches over 6 innings, but it would be nice to know what to expect out of a starter.<\/p>\n<p>Whatever the speed is on his fastball, the delta between it and his change-up is fantastic.\u00a0 He threw a ton of change-ups (21 out of 94 pitches) and relied on it heavily.\u00a0 His curve more often than not either bounced or started outside and kept on moving outside.\u00a0 I&#8217;m not sure I ever saw an inside curve-ball attempt.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pitch Counts<\/strong>: Through 5 complete innings\u00a0 he was sitting at 94 pitches, needing 31 just to get through the fourth, and clearly his night was over.\u00a0 94 pitches on the night, 61 for strikes for a pretty good strike\/ball ratio.\u00a0\u00a0 However, 94 pitches to complete 5 innings is rather inefficient, especially for someone who only got two Ks on the night.\u00a0 Lots of these strikes were foul balls, raising his pitch count and driving him from the game early.\u00a0 He will need to find a way to avoid 30-pitch innings and 10-pitch at bats, and will need to work on getting through 6 or 7 innings on that same number of pitches.<\/p>\n<p><strong>GO\/AO Ratios<\/strong>: More concerning was the very high ratio of air-outs versus ground-ball outs.\u00a0 Of the 15 outs he recorded:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>9 were fly balls or line drives to the outfield<\/li>\n<li>2 were pop-ups caught in foul territory<\/li>\n<li>2 were groundballs<\/li>\n<li>2 were strikeouts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(side note\/complaint: the official box score lists ground-outs\/fly-outs ratio as 2\/6.\u00a0 How do they possibly arrive at this ratio?\u00a0 11 of his 15 outs were recorded via balls caught before they hit the ground, whether they were fly balls or pop ups.\u00a0\u00a0 I assume they don&#8217;t count foul-ball pop ups as &#8220;fly ball outs,&#8221; but do they not count the 3 fly-ball outs recorded that were more &#8220;line drive&#8221; than fly out?\u00a0 At least they got the 2 ground-ball outs correctly tabulated).<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s an air-out to ground-out ratio of 11\/2.\u00a0 That&#8217;s downright scary.\u00a0 Conventional wisdom will tell you that a standard number of fly-ball outs turn into home-runs for normal pitchers, and &#8220;fly ball&#8221; pitchers therefore get tagged with a number of additional runs over their ground-ball pitcher compatriots.\u00a0 This is one of the tenants of the xFIP stat (trying to adjust for &#8220;expected&#8221; FIP versus actual FIP by standardizing for typical fly-ball to home-run ratios) and sure enough Peacock&#8217;s Xfip sits at a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/winss.aspx?team=Nationals&amp;pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2011&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2011\">monstrous 6.25<\/a> right now despite an ERA of 1.42.\u00a0\u00a0 Of course, we are talking about small sample sizes, and we&#8217;d need more information to really draw any conclusions going forward.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Repertoire<\/strong>: Peacock again showed that right now he&#8217;s a 2 and a half pitch hurler (here&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brooksbaseball.net\/pfxVB\/pfx.php?month=9&amp;day=14&amp;year=2011&amp;game=gid_2011_09_14_wasmlb_nynmlb_1%2F&amp;pitchSel=502748&amp;prevGame=gid_2011_09_14_wasmlb_nynmlb_1%2F&amp;prevDate=914\">pitch f\/x data<\/a> on the night).\u00a0 He featured a four-seam fastball that he relied on  heavily, throwing it nearly 2\/3s of the time, moving it inside and  outside against hitters.\u00a0 He has a pretty good change up that features a  10-mph difference from the fastball and that he commands pretty well  and isn&#8217;t afraid to throw at any count.\u00a0 And he has a big overhand  &#8220;knuckle-curve&#8221; that features pretty true 12-6 movement but which he  doesn&#8217;t command nearly as well (he threw 13 last night, only 5 for  strikes, but one was an absolute beauty to Satin to get one of his two  K&#8217;s on the night).<\/p>\n<p>As has been noted by other scouting reports I&#8217;ve read, Peacock really needs to work on his curve and develop a 4th pitch if he wants to be a successful MLB pitcher.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t perceive his 4-seamer to have enough movement to rely upon (think of <strong>Roy Halladay<\/strong> or <strong>Greg Maddux<\/strong>, both of whom had such great natural movement on their fastballs that they didn&#8217;t really &#8220;need&#8221; to develop their secondary pitches), and he clearly needs to work on his curve-ball command.\u00a0 The over-hand throwing motion kind of precludes him from considering a cutter (perhaps) or from adding a slider to his arsenal.\u00a0 He probably doesn&#8217;t use a 2-seamer because he&#8217;s not getting much movement on his 4-seamer now.\u00a0 The overhand motion does lend it self to a couple of pitches he could try: a split-fingered fastball could come in a few mph slower than his current fastball but should exhibit sinking behavior similar to a 2-seam fastball.\u00a0 Or a forkball could be a good pitch that tumbles and drops but which could be thrown a bit harder than a straight change.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong>: I think he had a nice outing but had some clear areas of concern.\u00a0 I am not sure he can stick as a MLB starter based on what i&#8217;m seeing, but could easily be a later innings relief guy (think <strong>Joel Hanrahan<\/strong>, and his conversion from 5-inning high ERA starter to effective closer).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As a fan of the team, its always neat to see shots of the parents of an up and coming rookie and to listen to the in-game interviews done by Masn&#8217;s Debbie Taylor.\u00a0 Collin Balester&#8216;s dad was wearing a big hawaiian shirt and was clearly telling his entire section &#8220;that&#8217;s my son&#8221; while pointing at [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[35,101,98,120,114,115,112,121,113,119],"class_list":["post-2464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-brad-peacock","tag-collin-balester","tag-craig-stammen","tag-greg-maddux","tag-ian-desmond","tag-jayson-werth","tag-jesus-flores","tag-joel-hanrahan","tag-jose-reyes","tag-roy-halladay"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2464"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2464\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2573,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2464\/revisions\/2573"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}