{"id":2657,"date":"2011-10-04T09:44:54","date_gmt":"2011-10-04T13:44:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2657"},"modified":"2011-10-04T09:44:54","modified_gmt":"2011-10-04T13:44:54","slug":"roster-construction-of-the-playoff-teams-and-the-nats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2657","title":{"rendered":"Roster Construction of the Playoff teams (and the Nats)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_2663\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/GrandersonCurtis-unknown-via-baseballsblackheritage.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2663\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-2663 \" title=\"*Apr 07 - 00:05*\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/GrandersonCurtis-unknown-via-baseballsblackheritage.com_-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/GrandersonCurtis-unknown-via-baseballsblackheritage.com_-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/GrandersonCurtis-unknown-via-baseballsblackheritage.com_.jpg 485w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2663\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Curtis Granderson was in the middle of a trade that affected 3 of the 8 playoff contenders.  Photo unknown credit via baseballsblackheritage.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>One of my pet projects over the years has been to analyze the Roster construction methods that successful teams use, in order to determine if there&#8217;s any trends or patterns to be had (some of the <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0Aoe2S6_m1TendHM2aDRUd3l0ZjhydXlmRGpJMGZuVkE&amp;hl=en_US#gid=0\">2010 rosters are here in this Google spreadsheet<\/a>).\u00a0 Now that we&#8217;ve got our 8 playoff teams set for the 2011 season, here&#8217;s a quick run down on the way these teams arrived at their core rosters.<\/p>\n<p>In the <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0Aoe2S6_m1TendDNvc1MwX0NvcVRxMUgya0hjNTlqVlE&amp;hl=en_US#gid=0\">2011 spreadsheet<\/a> (available online via the links section along the right hand side of the blog, with sections cut-n-pasted below), I&#8217;m only looking at the core of the roster: the starting 8 out-field players, the 5 man rotation, the setup and closer, and (if in the American League) the DH.\u00a0 So each team has either 15 or 16 players categorized.\u00a0 The player acquisition is broken down one of four ways:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><em><strong>Draft<\/strong><\/em>: The player is with the original team that drafted him.\u00a0 In the case of international free agents, if they&#8217;re signed as prospects they are considered in this category as well (i.e., <strong>Ichiro Suzuki<\/strong> is not a developed player, but an international Free Agent).\u00a0 It could be better defined as &#8220;Club developed players.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Traded MLBers<\/strong><\/em>: The player was acquired by the team by virtue of trading an established MLB player.\u00a0 Most of the time these days, this means the player was acquired as a prospect (since most trades seem to be of the prospect-for-established player kind).<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Traded Prospects<\/strong>: <\/em>The player was acquired by the team by virtue of trading prospects.\u00a0 This is essentially the reverse of #2.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>FA<\/strong><\/em>: The player was acquired in free agency.\u00a0 This category also includes two other types of acquisitions: waiver claims and cash purchases.\u00a0 These three categories are lumped together since all three indicate that a team has acquired a player with zero outlay in terms of development or prospects.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a breakdown of your 8 playoff teams:<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"521\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"55\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"86\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"108\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"70\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"90\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"85\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"27\"><\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr height=\"40\">\n<td width=\"55\" height=\"40\">Season<\/td>\n<td width=\"86\">Team<\/td>\n<td width=\"108\">Drafted\/Developed<\/td>\n<td width=\"70\">Traded Prospects<\/td>\n<td width=\"90\">Traded MLBs<\/td>\n<td width=\"85\">FA\/Waivers<\/td>\n<td width=\"27\">Ttl<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">2011<\/td>\n<td>NYY<\/td>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">2011<\/td>\n<td>Tampa Bay<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">2011<\/td>\n<td>Texas<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">2011<\/td>\n<td>Detroit<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">2011<\/td>\n<td>Philadephia<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">2011<\/td>\n<td>St Louis<\/td>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">2011<\/td>\n<td>Milwaukee<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">2011<\/td>\n<td>Arizona<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>A couple of quick notes on these numbers:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>One of Texas&#8217; &#8220;drafted&#8221; players was a Rule-5 Draftee (Ogando).\u00a0\u00a0 Likewise, Philadelphia has one rule-5 draftee as well (Victorino). \u00a0 I probably should re-classify rule5 draftees as FA acquisitions, but for now it counts in the draft.<\/li>\n<li>Just in case anyone forgot, the <strong>Mark Teixeira<\/strong> trade netted Texas their #2 pitcher (Harrison), their starting SS (Andrus), their closer (Feliz) and Boston&#8217;s current starting catcher (Saltalamacchia).\u00a0 This is lesson 1-A in why teams should really rethink deadline deals.\u00a0 Imagine if Atlanta still had all these guys..<\/li>\n<li>Tampa&#8217;s roster did NOT include <strong>Matt Moore<\/strong> initially but it wouldn&#8217;t have changed this analysis; all 5 of Tampa&#8217;s primary starters this year were Drafted and developed in house, as was Moore.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>From looking at this data, and looking at some of the ways other near-playoff teams have built, there&#8217;s some clear strategies for building rosters.\u00a0 I&#8217;ll summarize them as follows:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Method #1: <em><strong>Build from within 100%<\/strong><\/em>: (Tampa Bay).\u00a0 Tampa&#8217;s current owners bit the bullet, started over from scratch in terms of the MLB roster, invested in player development and now have a perennial playoff team with the lowest payroll in the majors.\u00a0 9 of their core 16 players were developed in house, with another 3 acquired by flipping veterans for prospects.\u00a0 They augmented their core with 4 fringe FAs (Kotchman, Damon, Peralta and Farnsworth) to complete the squad.\u00a0 Note those four FAs are playing 1B, DH, setup and closer.<\/li>\n<li>Method #2: <em><strong>Ride your developed Core and use your prospects to acquire big names<\/strong>: <\/em>(Philadelphia, Milwaukee): 3\/5ths of Philly&#8217;s vaunted SP core was acquired through prospect trades (Halladay and Oswalt) or through free agency (Lee).\u00a0\u00a0 They also burned high-end prospects on Hunter Pence to fill the RF hole left by the departing Jayson Werth.\u00a0 They may now be a big payroll player, but lots of that payroll is spent to lock-up home-grown players, giving the team credit where credit is due for building from within.\u00a0 Meanwhile Milwaukee went all-in this year, burning their own prospects to acquire Greinke, Marcum, Bentacourt, K-Rod and even bit-player Nyjer Morgan.\u00a0\u00a0 These guys add to an excellent crop of home-grown players (Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart and Gallardo) that will slowly start to break up over the next few years, likely leaving Milwaukee thread-bare and in last place for a while.\u00a0 So be it; they made the playoffs this year and still look strong for 2012.<\/li>\n<li>Method #3: <em><strong>Go Young and grow up strong<\/strong><\/em> (Arizona, Texas): both these teams went on a trading spree, flipping established major leaguers for up and coming talent.\u00a0 Now they&#8217;re starting to see the benefits of this talent.\u00a0 In Arizona&#8217;s case, they&#8217;re young, cheap and cost contained.\u00a0 Texas added $30M of payroll from last year and will continue to rise as local TV deals start to pour money into their coffers.<\/li>\n<li>Method #4: <em><strong>Spend what it takes to win<\/strong><\/em>: (New York, St Louis, Detroit).\u00a0 Clearly the Yankees are in this boat, with their $200M payroll.\u00a0 They have 7 home-grown players, but three of them (Jeter, Posada, Rivera) have been around for 15+ years.\u00a0 When they retire, look for more FA acquisitions to back-fill.\u00a0 Detroit may not seem like they&#8217;re in the Yankee&#8217;s category, but make no mistake they&#8217;re a big payroll player.\u00a0 They also made a very shrewd trade and acquired 3 core guys (Jackson, Scherzer, Coke) in the 3-team trade involving (among others) Curtis Granderson, Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson.\u00a0\u00a0 Lastly the Cardinals; they bought their two biggest hitters not named Pujols (Holliday, Berkman) in the FA market, they bought their ace starter (Carpenter) and two other starters.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a quick look at some other targeted teams, to see how they fit into my four construction theories above:<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"508\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"128\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"108\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"70\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"90\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"85\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"27\"><\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr height=\"40\">\n<td width=\"128\" height=\"40\">Team<\/td>\n<td width=\"108\">Drafted\/Developed<\/td>\n<td width=\"70\">Traded Prospects<\/td>\n<td width=\"90\">Traded MLBs<\/td>\n<td width=\"85\">FA\/Waivers<\/td>\n<td width=\"27\">Ttl<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Boston Red Sox<\/td>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Atlanta<\/td>\n<td>10<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">New York Mets<\/td>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Florida Marlins<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Kansas City Royals<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Seattle Mariners<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Boston<\/strong>: they&#8217;re a combination of <em><strong>Method #2<\/strong><\/em> (trade prospects for stars) method and the &#8220;spend what it takes&#8221; <em><strong>method #4<\/strong><\/em>.\u00a0 They can afford to basically do both since they&#8217;re rolling in cash and have a fantastic player development system.\u00a0 What has to really burn <strong>Theo Epstein<\/strong> though is just how badly they&#8217;ve done in the FA market; their 6 FAs of the core are: Scutaro, Crawford, Drew, Ortiz, Lackey and Wakefield.\u00a0 Scutaro was bought to replace another FA shortstop, Crawford had a rough first season, Drew puts up good numbers but you&#8217;ll definitely hear about his lack of clutch play, and Lackey has just been a disaster.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Atlanta<\/strong>: Amazingly, they&#8217;re in <em><strong>Method #1<\/strong><\/em> mode and even have more home grown players than the Tampa Bay Rays.\u00a0 They depend on exactly one FA in their core 15 players (Derek Lowe, who is clearly replaceable from within from one of several rising starter prospects the team has).\u00a0 Atlanta&#8217;s entire pitching core is home grown, young and cost contained.\u00a0 This is the nightmare NL east executives keep having at night; <a href=\"https:\/\/spreadsheets.google.com\/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dEpLMUV5NDlubmF0YmpGQ21FYW1lOGc&amp;output=html\">after 2012<\/a> they&#8217;ll shed most of their payroll but have more-than-able replacements for the most part, putting them in position to be the team to beat for a while.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NY Mets<\/strong>: They&#8217;re attempting to be in <em><strong>Method #4<\/strong><\/em> but have shown themselves to be so incompetent on the FA market that they were one of the worst under-performing teams by payroll this year.\u00a0 The numbers above (7 home grown, 7 FAs) would look more skewed if one took into account the lost years of <strong>Johan Santana<\/strong> and <strong>Oliver Perez<\/strong>, two more failed FAs in their arsenal.\u00a0 The Mets that took the field towards the end of the season looked more like a AAA team than a team with a $140M payroll.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Florida<\/strong>: seems like they&#8217;re perpetually in <em><strong>Method #3<\/strong><\/em> mode, but not for the same reasons as Texas.\u00a0 Florida routinely trades away its rising veterans to save a buck, not necessarily to try to win.\u00a0 They&#8217;ve cruised along for years pocketing untold millions in revenue sharing while barely trying to improve on the field.\u00a0 Dumping <strong>Cody Ross<\/strong> on a waiver claim just to save a few million in salary?\u00a0 Par for the course.\u00a0 Demoting Logan Morrison because you didn&#8217;t like something he said on twitter?\u00a0 Sure.\u00a0 Releasing a respected player in Mike Cameron over something petty?\u00a0 No surprise.\u00a0 Bud Selig should have a tough time looking at himself in the mirror for gifting this franchise to Loria and his snake partners.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kansas City<\/strong> is one of the few teams in <em><strong>Method #1<\/strong><\/em> mode right now; they&#8217;ve got no less than 9 spots filled with developed players, most of them rookies or near rookies this year.\u00a0 If these guys pan out like they should, KC could be a monster.\u00a0 They still need more pitching to develop though; their track record developing pitchers isn&#8217;t nearly as good as the positional player development.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Seattle<\/strong> is transitioning to <em><strong>Method #3<\/strong><\/em> as we speak.\u00a0 They&#8217;ve acquired guys like Smoak, League, Vargas, and Carp by trading off established vets in an effort to go younger and cheaper.\u00a0 They&#8217;ve also got a fantastic young core of starting pitchers to build on and a rookie-of-the-year candidate in Dustin Ackley.\u00a0 They may be a force to be reckon with once Suzuki hangs them up and they can replace his spot and payroll with someone younger and better.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Lastly, here&#8217;s three looks at your Washington Nationals.<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"603\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"223\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"108\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"70\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"90\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"85\"><\/col>\n<col width=\"27\"><\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr height=\"40\">\n<td width=\"223\" height=\"40\">Team<\/td>\n<td width=\"108\">Drafted\/Developed<\/td>\n<td width=\"70\">Traded Prospects<\/td>\n<td width=\"90\">Traded MLBs<\/td>\n<td width=\"85\">FA\/Waivers<\/td>\n<td width=\"27\">Ttl<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Wash (2011 opening day)<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Wash (primary Roster for   season)<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr height=\"20\">\n<td height=\"20\">Wash (end of season)<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>The opening day roster (line 1) depended on stop-gap FA signings (LaRoche, Pudge, Ankiel, Marquis) but also featured a strong core of home-grown players.\u00a0 The core of the season (line 2) though saw LaRoche on the DL, Pudge on the bench and an all-FA outfield of Nix, Ankiel and Werth.\u00a0 This should tell you what you need to know in terms of how the Nationals are developing outfielders lately.\u00a0 We&#8217;ll likely be in the same boat next year as well, until Harper arrives and\/or Rendon either moves to LF himself or forces someone else out there.\u00a0 However, the bulk of the team that went 17-10 in September (and, more tellingly, 16-7 after Livan was shut down for the season) was (per line 3) heavily home grown, especially on the pitching corps.\u00a0 Our best 2012 starting 5 could all very well be drafted and developed in house in the last 5 years.<\/p>\n<p>So what &#8220;method&#8221; does the Nats fall into?\u00a0 They are trying to be the next <em><strong>Method #2<\/strong><\/em> team to make it big, following clearly in the footsteps of Philadelphia, building from within but not afraid to spend money when its needed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of my pet projects over the years has been to analyze the Roster construction methods that successful teams use, in order to determine if there&#8217;s any trends or patterns to be had (some of the 2010 rosters are here in this Google spreadsheet).\u00a0 Now that we&#8217;ve got our 8 playoff teams set for the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nonnatsbaseball","category-natsgeneral"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2657","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2657"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2657\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2714,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2657\/revisions\/2714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}