{"id":279,"date":"2010-11-07T09:35:19","date_gmt":"2010-11-07T14:35:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=279"},"modified":"2013-04-23T14:19:07","modified_gmt":"2013-04-23T18:19:07","slug":"what-will-dunn-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=279","title":{"rendered":"What will Dunn do? (updated)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Photo by Doug Benc\/Getty Images North America<\/p><\/div>\n

As posted by other bloggers today, October 28th 2010, (especially in this post here on the Nationals Enquirer<\/a> which rather eloquently titles their posting with the obvious consequence of Dunn’s Elias rating), the Nats dodged a huge bullet and will be fully compensated if Adam Dunn <\/strong>decides to leave via free agency (that is well, unless they do the unthinkable and fail to offer him Arbitration).\u00a0 The official Elias Rankings<\/a> came out and previous estimates on Dunn were slightly low (resulting in panicked posts<\/a> by yours truly and others about his being a type B free agent and thus making our entire mis-handling of the contract extension even more egregiously bad).<\/p>\n

Now, based on the rules of compensation (as explained in the Kilgore’s Nats Journal blog posting today<\/a>), the first 18 picks of the 2011 draft are protected (usually first 15 but there’s a few compensation picks in there from failed draft picks in 2010).\u00a0 So, IF Dunn is leaving (and the prevaling opinion seems to lean that way despite all realistic arguments against it…), what the Nats now root for is a team in the “bottom” half of the first round to be the signing team.\u00a0 If this happens, we’ll get their 1st rounder AND a supplemental pick.\u00a0 Otherwise we’re looking at the supplemental pick plus the signing team’s 2nd rounder.\u00a0 That’s not nearly as nice of a haul frankly.<\/p>\n

The first round draft order for 2011 goes like this<\/a>, thanks to mlbtraderumors.com<\/p>\n

Here’s the thing though; if Dunn is going to leave, then he needs to go to a team that:<\/p>\n

a) Needs a first baseman and<\/p>\n

b) Is REALISTICALLY in the market for Free Agents in general, and<\/p>\n

c) Makes more sense for him to leave the Nationals for.\u00a0 As in, why would he go from one last place team to another, unless the Nats insultingly refuse to offer him anything more than a 2yr deal.<\/p>\n

Here’s a quick rundown on NL teams and their 1st basemen situation.\u00a0 We focus first on the NL because of Dunn’s repeated statements that he’s not interested in becoming a full time DH.<\/p>\n