{"id":2825,"date":"2011-11-02T09:17:38","date_gmt":"2011-11-02T13:17:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2825"},"modified":"2013-08-29T13:51:42","modified_gmt":"2013-08-29T17:51:42","slug":"2011-fa-market-analysis-and-predictions-for-starting-pitching","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2825","title":{"rendered":"2011 FA Market Analysis and Predictions for Starting Pitching"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_2836\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/wilsonCJ-307aj101310-chris-omera-AP-livesportsdb.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2836\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-2836\" title=\"wilsonCJ-307aj101310 chris omera AP livesportsdb.com\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/wilsonCJ-307aj101310-chris-omera-AP-livesportsdb.com_-300x210.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"210\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/wilsonCJ-307aj101310-chris-omera-AP-livesportsdb.com_-300x210.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/wilsonCJ-307aj101310-chris-omera-AP-livesportsdb.com_.jpg 307w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-2836\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Is CJ Wilson worth a 9 figure contract this off season? We&#8217;ll see. Photo Chris O&#8217;Meara\/AP via livesportsdb.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>As the World Series ends, and as clubs start exercising (or more importantly, declining) player options, the FA market for starting pitching is starting to really take shape this off season.<\/p>\n<p>The Nats don&#8217;t &#8220;need&#8221; Starting Pitching as they have in the past, but a quality veteran starting pitcher would certainly be preferred to the question marks that we might have if we used the likes of <strong>Ross Detwiler<\/strong>, <strong>Tommy Milone<\/strong> or <strong>Brad Peacock<\/strong> as a 5th starter in 2012.<\/p>\n<p>Lets take a look at the starters on the market, put in some predictions as to what kind of money they&#8217;re going to get, and discuss whether or not the Nats should (or might) pursue them.\u00a0 For reference, here&#8217;s a list of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2010\/03\/2012-mlb-free-agents.html\">2012 FAs<\/a> from mlbtraderumors, as well as the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2011\/09\/2010-11-reverse-engineered-elias-rankings.html\">Elias rankings<\/a> as of the end of the 2011 season.\u00a0 Remember, thanks to their end of the season run, the Nats 1st round pick is NOT protected and would be forfeited if they signed a type-A free agent.\u00a0 So the FA types will be of importance when talking about each of the pitchers below.<\/p>\n<p>Category: Aces (or nearly Aces) and Type-A starters.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>CC Sabathia<\/strong> seems certain to opt-out of his remaining Yankee contract and will almost certainly re-up with the team.\u00a0 <strong>11\/1\/11<\/strong>: <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/new-york\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/7175711\/new-york-yankees-cc-sabathia-reach-five-year-122m-deal\">he has done just that<\/a>.\u00a0 5yrs, $122M, fewer years honestly than I thought he&#8217;d demand.\u00a0 He raises his AAV from $23M in the last deal to $24.4M and gets one additional guaranteed year.\u00a0 The structure of the deal pays him $23M\/year for the first four years, then $25M the last.\u00a0 There&#8217;s an option for 2017 at $25M that he most likely makes if he stays healthy.<\/li>\n<li><strong>CJ Wilson<\/strong> is also a type-A FA and seems set on testing the market.\u00a0 I would too if I were Wilson; I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s an ace but he&#8217;s certainly going to be paid like one.\u00a0 He seems set to get an <strong>AJ Burnett<\/strong> type deal (5yrs $85M) or perhaps more.\u00a0 I hope the Nats don&#8217;t over-spend and get him.\u00a0 I&#8217;d guess he heads to Boston; his free-spirit personal seems to fit with that franchise and the team just got a shock bit of news that <strong>John Lackey<\/strong>, despite how bad he was in 2011, is <a href=\"http:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/mlb\/news?slug=ap-redsox-lackeysurgery\">out for the entirety of 2012<\/a> with Tommy John surgery.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Roy Oswalt<\/strong> had his team option for $16M bought out on 10\/25\/11, but I&#8217;m guessing this is just a procedural move to re-sign him and keep the &#8220;big 4&#8221; together for a few more years.\u00a0 Oswalt&#8217;s on the wrong side of 30 and had a rough season of declining stats and missed starts, but still slots in as the best #4 starter in baseball and certainly didn&#8217;t come to Philadelphia for anything less than a World Series shot.\u00a0 I&#8217;d guess he re-ups for 3 years, $36M with the Phillies.\u00a0 Other pundits disagree and see him moving back to Texas to take over Wilson&#8217;s #1 spot on the Rangers rotation.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Edwin Jackson<\/strong>: another guy whose post season performances seem certain to hurt his FA prospects.\u00a0 Big arm, good numbers, right age (only 28 hitting free agency), but a propensity to get hit hard and often.\u00a0 <strong>Mike Rizzo <\/strong>loves him, tried to trade <strong>Adam Dunn <\/strong>for him in 2010, and it wouldn&#8217;t be a stretch to see the Nats go after him again.\u00a0 Look for him signing with the Nats for 3 years and $28M.\u00a0 Unless a pitching-starved big-money team like Boston or New York offers him a ton more than that.\u00a0 I&#8217;m not really in favor of this deal for the Nats, but wouldn&#8217;t be surprised to see it happen.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yu Darvish<\/strong>: as I <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2774\">opined here<\/a>, I really do hope that the Nats do not spend fools money after Darvish.\u00a0 A posting fee in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2011\/10\/agents-predict-darvish-posting-fee-contract.html\">$40-$50M range<\/a>, then at least that amount to sign the guy.\u00a0 I know he&#8217;s got great numbers in Japan.\u00a0 So did Dice-K.\u00a0 There&#8217;s a halfway decent chance he doesn&#8217;t even get posted this year, so all ink spilled over Darvish could be moot.\u00a0 Baseball Prospectus put out a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballprospectus.com\/article.php?articleid=15379\">great article about Darvish<\/a>, including lots of analysis and links to others who share the same concerns that I do.\u00a0 If you&#8217;re in the &#8220;pro-Yu&#8221; camp there&#8217;s a couple good articles on places like fangraphs that support your case.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Category: Mid-rotation\/decent starting options.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Mark Buehrle<\/strong> is hitting the FA market, but i&#8217;d be shocked if he leaves Chicago at this point in his career.\u00a0 I&#8217;m sure he&#8217;ll take a team friendly deal that extends his career out 3-4 more years, at which point he may very well retire a one-franchise guy with a surprisingly high number of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/buehrma01.shtml\">career wins<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Hiroki Kuroda<\/strong> just finished off a sneaky-good season, going <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/k\/kurodhi01.shtml\">13-16 with a 3.07 era<\/a>.\u00a0 The problem is that he&#8217;s 36 and had a ton of innings on his arm in the Nippon league prior to getting here.\u00a0 He&#8217;d be a risk.\u00a0 The Dodgers franchise is a mess but its the only team he&#8217;s known, and I&#8217;d guess he wants to stay on the west coast.\u00a0 I&#8217;d guess he gets a decent 2-year deal from Seattle if the Dodgers can&#8217;t find the money.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Javier Vazquez<\/strong> looked washed up during last year&#8217;s FA market analysis, having lost 3-4 mph on his fastball and getting shelled in NY.\u00a0 However, he had a great <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/v\/vazquja01.shtml\">bounce-back season<\/a> in Miami and i&#8217;d guess he re-ups there for the new season and new stadium.\u00a0 However, there&#8217;s word out there that he <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2011\/10\/mlbtr-live-chat-3.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader\">may retire<\/a>.\u00a0 Hard to see a guy who just put in a decent, comeback season retire though, especially if guaranteed money is thrown around.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Category: Aging\/Back of the Rotation starters<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Bruce Chen<\/strong> has very quietly put together <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/c\/chenbr01.shtml\">two pretty good seasons<\/a> for the Royals all things considered, but will be 35 and may see a precipitous drop in production.\u00a0 He&#8217;s not any better than the options the Nats face now, when you consider price and productivity.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Freddie Garcia<\/strong> had a revelation of a season for the Yankees; I&#8217;d think he stays there as insurance for 2012.\u00a0\u00a0 Still hard to believe the Yankees won 97 games giving no less than 51 starts to Garcia and Colon.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bartolo Colon<\/strong> is in the same boat as Garcia, but is 38 to his 34 and may be cut loose to find another team willing to give him a shot with his stem-cell enhanced shoulder.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Joel Pineiro<\/strong> has never stayed healthy long enough to reach his potential, and he just laid an egg in his contract year in LA.\u00a0 I&#8217;d be surprised if he got anything more than a 1yr $5M deal.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Aaron Harang<\/strong>: beware the veteran pitcher who goes to San Diego and suddenly looks like a #2 starter.\u00a0 2011 numbers: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/h\/haranaa01.shtml\">14-7, 3.64 era<\/a>.\u00a0 Home\/Away splits?\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/split.cgi?id=haranaa01&amp;year=2011&amp;t=p\">3.05 era at home, 4.70 on the road<\/a>.\u00a0 I&#8217;m sure he&#8217;ll get some money, somewhere for a back-of-the-rotation job.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Livan Hernandez<\/strong> reportedly offered to move to the bullpen for the Nats, in order to stay here.\u00a0 Unfortunately he pitched so poorly, and takes so long to warm up, that using him in extended relief really isn&#8217;t much of an option.\u00a0 My guess is that Livan returns to his roots in Miami as the Marlins&#8217; 5th starter on the cheap and enjoys one more spin around the league.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jason Marquis<\/strong>, in a remarkable sense of timing by the Nats, was traded for <strong>Zack Walters<\/strong> and then promptly <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.sbnation.com\/2011\/8\/14\/2363050\/jason-marquis-injury-diamondbacks-leg\">broke his leg<\/a>.\u00a0 Its too bad for Marquis, who clearly was using 2011 to regain some market value for his free agency this off-season.\u00a0 At this point he certainly won&#8217;t be getting any 2year deals for 8 figures.\u00a0 I&#8217;d guess he gets a 1yr $4M deal with some incentives, if that.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Chien-Ming Wang<\/strong>, by virtue of being in THIS section and not the next, has already had a successful 2011.\u00a0 He is what he is right now; a guy trying to reclaim former glory and his former sinking fastball, and a guy who looks like a #4 starter who has capabilities of improving as he gets more and more innings into his repaired shoulder.\u00a0 My guess is that he repays the Nats for nursing him back to health while providing him millions in salary and signs for a 2-year deal worth roughly $6-7M overall.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tim Wakefield<\/strong>; I would have predicted him to possibly hang up the spikes until news of Lackey&#8217;s injury and Dice-K&#8217;s question mark.\u00a0 Wakefield&#8217;s stats have <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/w\/wakefti01.shtml\">really declined<\/a> the past two years, but Boston seems in need of a back of the rotation guarantee that Wakefield&#8217;s $4M standing salary can fill, cheaply.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brad Penny<\/strong>, <strong>Jeff Francis<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>Paul Maholm, Chris Capuano<\/strong>, <strong>Vicente Padilla<\/strong>, <strong>Rodrigo Lopez<\/strong>, <strong>Zack Duke<\/strong>, <strong>Aaron Cook, Kevin Milwood, Dontrelle Willis<\/strong> and anyone else not already mentioned: all of these guys were either so mediocre in 2011, went unsigned in 2011, or are so old, that i&#8217;d be surprised if more than just a few of them got major league deals for 2012.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Category: Reclamation Projects\/Injury recovery guys.\u00a0 The Nats have a history of pursuing former glory with recovering stars.\u00a0 Would they try it again?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Adam Wainwright<\/strong>: his injury in spring training 2011 amazingly didn&#8217;t really cost the Cardinals, who marched right into the World Series without their #2 starter.\u00a0 Wainwright&#8217;s injury couldn&#8217;t have been worsely timed in terms of his contract options; St Louis dodges a major payroll bullet by being able to opt out of millions of dollars of guaranteed money.\u00a0 But Wainwright is free to look elsewhere.\u00a0 Will he?\u00a0 Doubtful: i&#8217;d guess he signs a one-year incentive-laden contract with St. Louis aimed towards regaining his career.\u00a0 <strong>10\/26\/11 update<\/strong>: the team <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2011\/10\/cardinals-exercised-wainwrights-options-.html\">exercised its options<\/a> on Wainwright, meaning he&#8217;s off the market.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Justin Duchscherer<\/strong>: had some <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/d\/duchsju01.shtml\">lights out seasons<\/a>, but missed all of 2009 and 2011 with injury.\u00a0 Will anyone take a flier on him?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Chris Young<\/strong> and his 6&#8242; 10&#8243; faster-than-it-seems fastball only got 4 starts (2 against the Nats) before getting shoulder surgery.\u00a0 Seems to run in the NY Mets family (see <strong>Santana, Johan<\/strong>).\u00a0 It wasn&#8217;t as bad a surgery as it could have been, and he should return for 2012.\u00a0 He&#8217;s now missed games in 4 straight seasons and its buyer-beware.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jon Garland<\/strong> had <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.sbnation.com\/2011\/6\/3\/2205546\/jon-garland-injury-news-los-angeles-dodgers\">season-ending surgery<\/a> in July after just 9 starts, but when healthy is a 105 ERA+ guy, a 4th starter who can eat innings and be solid.\u00a0 He had <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/g\/garlajo01.shtml\">great durability<\/a> up until this injury, having not missed a start since 2002.\u00a0 But now its not clear if he&#8217;ll even be ready for 2012.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ben Sheets<\/strong> is in almost the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/s\/sheetbe01.shtml\">identical spot<\/a> as Duchscherer; ironically both have a history of pitching in Oakland.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rich Harden<\/strong>; mr Day Game split (or Mr. Unreliable Injury guy, if you play fantasy baseball) just finished yet another unproductive season with a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/h\/harderi01.shtml\">5+ ERA pitching<\/a> in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball.\u00a0 He seems set for a minor league contract for one last flier at a comeback.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Eric Bedard<\/strong> wasn&#8217;t half bad for Boston down the stretch, with a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/bedarer01.shtml\">9.0 k\/9 rate<\/a> on the season.\u00a0 But at the end of the season he was yanked early in two critical games and i&#8217;d bet the team won&#8217;t be willing to roll the dice with him again.\u00a0 We&#8217;ll see who overpays for his injury-plagued services in 2012.\u00a0 With Boston&#8217;s sudden shortage of starters, look for Bedard to resign in Boston and start the year as Boston&#8217;s #4.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brandon Webb<\/strong>: got some looks in spring training 2011, including from the Nats, but then went under the knife yet again.\u00a0 You can usually come back from TJ surgery.\u00a0 Shoulders are tougher.\u00a0 He may be done.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Predictions:\u00a0 I&#8217;d guess the Nats throw their name in the mix for Wilson but get scared off by his price tag.\u00a0 Maybe we&#8217;ll post a respectable figure for Darvish.\u00a0 But Rizzo goes hard after Jackson and we get him.\u00a0 Meanwhile Rizzo also signs one of these injury reclamation projects to a nominal guaranteed contract to see what pans out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the World Series ends, and as clubs start exercising (or more importantly, declining) player options, the FA market for starting pitching is starting to really take shape this off season. The Nats don&#8217;t &#8220;need&#8221; Starting Pitching as they have in the past, but a quality veteran starting pitcher would certainly be preferred to the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[345,139,346,343,351,35,353,342,47,37,349,53,253,1300,321,340,42,341,344,348,350,347,41,339,129,211,51,297,226,853,34,300],"class_list":["post-2825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-aaron-harang","tag-adam-dunn","tag-adam-wainwright","tag-bartolo-colon","tag-ben-sheets","tag-brad-peacock","tag-brandon-webb","tag-bruce-chen","tag-cc-sabathia","tag-chien-ming-wang","tag-chris-young","tag-cj-wilson","tag-edwin-jackson","tag-erik-bedard","tag-freddie-garcia","tag-hiroki-kuroda","tag-jason-marquis","tag-javier-vazquez","tag-joel-pineiro","tag-johan-santana","tag-jon-garland","tag-justin-duchscherer","tag-livan-hernandez","tag-mark-buehrle","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-rich-harden","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-roy-oswalt","tag-tim-wakefield","tag-tommy-john","tag-tommy-milone","tag-yu-darvish"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2825","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2825"}],"version-history":[{"count":21,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2825\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7390,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2825\/revisions\/7390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}