{"id":3052,"date":"2011-11-23T09:12:20","date_gmt":"2011-11-23T14:12:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3052"},"modified":"2017-09-21T15:20:00","modified_gmt":"2017-09-21T19:20:00","slug":"end-of-season-award-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3052","title":{"rendered":"End of Season 2011 Award Review"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here&#8217;s a wrap up of the end of season awards.\u00a0 I <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1948\">posted my predictions here<\/a> (albeit without MLB comeback player of the year predictions, since those came out very early in the off-season).<\/p>\n<p>Final results: For the 2nd year running, I went 8-for-8 in predicting the BBWAA awards.\u00a0\u00a0 But I will say this; predicting these awards going forward will be more difficult, as more modern baseball writers will depend more and more on advanced stats to decided these awards.\u00a0 Meanwhile, I was only 1-for-4 in predicting the Sporting News &#8220;unofficial&#8221; award add-ons for GM and Comeback player (and I pretty much disagree with all I was wrong about :-).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AL MVP:\u00a0 Prediction: <strong>Justin Verlander<\/strong>.\u00a0 Winner: <a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/2011\/baseball\/mlb\/11\/21\/al.mvp.verlander.bautista.ellsbury.ap\/index.html\">Verlander<\/a>.\u00a0 Ellsbury 2nd, Bautista 3rd.<\/li>\n<li>AL Cy Young: Prediction: <strong>Justin Verlander. <\/strong>Winner<strong>: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/2011\/baseball\/mlb\/11\/15\/al.cy.young.justin.verlander.ap\/index.html\">Verlander, unanimously<\/a>.\u00a0 Weaver 2nd, Shields 3rd.<\/li>\n<li>AL Rookie of the Year: Prediction: <strong>Jeremy Hellickson. <\/strong>Winner: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tampabay.com\/sports\/baseball\/rays\/article1201656.ece\">Hellickson rather easily<\/a>.\u00a0 Trumbo 2nd, Hosmer 3rd.<\/li>\n<li>AL Mgr: Prediction: <strong>Joe Maddon<\/strong>.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/content.usatoday.com\/communities\/dailypitch\/post\/2011\/11\/kirk-gibson-joe-maddon-named-managers-of-the-year\/1?csp=34sports&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+UsatodaycomSports-TopStories+%28Sports+-+Top+Stories%29&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader\">Winner: Maddon<\/a>.\u00a0 Leyland 2nd, Washington 3rd.<\/li>\n<li>Sporting News AL GM: Prediction: <strong>Andrew Friedman<\/strong>.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freep.com\/article\/20111116\/SPORTS02\/111116004\/Dave-Dombrowski-co-winner-Sporting-News-Executive-Year-award?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CSports%7Cs\">Winner: Dave Dombrowski<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Sporting News AL Comeback player of the Year.\u00a0 Prediction: <strong>Bartolo Colon<\/strong>.\u00a0 Winner: <a href=\"http:\/\/aol.sportingnews.com\/mlb\/feed\/2011-09\/mlb-awards\/story\/sporting-news-2011-mlb-awards-al-and-nl-comeback-players-of-the-year\"><strong>Jacoby Ellsbury<\/strong><\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>NL MVP: Prediction:<strong> Ryan Braun.<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/2011\/baseball\/mlb\/11\/22\/nl.mvp.braun.kemp.ap\/index.html\">Winner: Braun<\/a>.\u00a0 Kemp 2nd, Fielder 3rd.<\/li>\n<li>NL Cy Young: Prediction: <strong>Clayton Kershaw<\/strong>.\u00a0 Winner: <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/los-angeles\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/7246696\/los-angeles-dodgers-clayton-kershaw-wins-nl-cy-young\">Kershaw handily<\/a>.\u00a0 Halladay 2nd, Lee 3rd.<\/li>\n<li>NL Rookie: Prediction: <strong>Craig Kimbrel<\/strong>.\u00a0 Winner: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/sports\/nationals\/braves-closer-kimbrel-unanimous-pick-as-nl-rookie-of-the-year-rays-hellickson-wins-al-award\/2011\/11\/15\/gIQAdHgoNN_story.html\">Kimbrel unanimously<\/a>.\u00a0 Freeman 2nd, Worley 3rd.<\/li>\n<li>NL Mgr: Prediction: <strong>Kirk Gibson<\/strong>.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/content.usatoday.com\/communities\/dailypitch\/post\/2011\/11\/kirk-gibson-joe-maddon-named-managers-of-the-year\/1?csp=34sports&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+UsatodaycomSports-TopStories+%28Sports+-+Top+Stories%29&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader\">Winner: Gibson<\/a><strong>.<\/strong> Roenicke 2nd, LaRussa 3rd.<\/li>\n<li>Sporting News NL GM:Prediction:<strong> Doug Melvin<\/strong>.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freep.com\/article\/20111116\/SPORTS02\/111116004\/Dave-Dombrowski-co-winner-Sporting-News-Executive-Year-award?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CSports%7Cs\">Winner: Melvin<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Sporting News NL Comeback player of the year.\u00a0 Prediction: <strong>Ryan Vogelsong<\/strong>.\u00a0 Winner: <a href=\"http:\/\/aol.sportingnews.com\/mlb\/feed\/2011-09\/mlb-awards\/story\/sporting-news-2011-mlb-awards-al-and-nl-comeback-players-of-the-year\"><strong>Lance Berkman<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Discussion (here&#8217;s a link to all the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/awards\/awards_2011.shtml\">2011 post-season voting with totals<\/a> from Baseball-Reference.com).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>AL MVP<\/strong>: Verlander as predicted.\u00a0 Not because I think he&#8217;s the MVP (see my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2547\">rant about Pitchers winning the MVP <\/a>here), but because he won the voting.\u00a0 I think this kind of winner will gradually fade as more modern, stats-aware voters pour into the BBWAA and start &#8220;improving&#8221; the vote.\u00a0 The same goes for Cy Youngs as well; see commentary for the NL Cy Young award.\u00a0 That being said, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.boston.com\/sports\/baseball\/redsox\/extras\/extra_bases\/2011\/11\/explaining_my_m.html\">this voter&#8217;s explanation<\/a> perfectly sums up what I would have guessed would have happened.\u00a0 And this guy, <a href=\"http:\/\/rangersblog.dallasnews.com\/archives\/2011\/11\/justin-verlander-wins-mvp-one.html\">who voted <strong>Michael Young<\/strong> first<\/a>, Verlander 2nd, Ellsbury 5th and Bautista 7th should really have his voting credentials questioned.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Cy Young<\/strong>: no surprise on the winner, or 2nd or 3rd place really.\u00a0 I was surprised that <strong>Josh Beckett<\/strong> didn&#8217;t fare better.\u00a0 Perhaps it was because of his injury later in the season.\u00a0 His WAR should have put him in the top 5.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Rookie<\/strong>: Again, no surprise winner here.\u00a0 Hellickson proved his value with a sparkling 2010 late season call-up, just as <strong>Matt Moore <\/strong>did this year for Tampa.\u00a0 This award looked to be <strong>Michael Pineda<\/strong>&#8216;s at the all-star break.\u00a0 He finishes 5th.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Manager<\/strong>: Maddon won pretty handily; no surprise here.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Comeback Player of the Year<\/strong>: when you put Ellsbury&#8217;s season into context, he certainly out-performed any reasonable expectation of his abilities.\u00a0 He wasn&#8217;t exactly a slouch in 2009, but he certainly wasn&#8217;t a 30-home run talent either.\u00a0 I guessed Colon just based on the fact that he was basically <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/c\/colonba01.shtml\">out of baseball<\/a> before the Yankees signed him.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Executive: <\/strong>Perhaps the voters have tired of the tight-rope act going on in Tampa.\u00a0 Dombrowski&#8217;s FA signings were sublime, but his mid-season trade for <strong>Doug Fister<\/strong> probably won over the voters, who watched the Tigers improve 14 games and win the AL Central.\u00a0 I question the award though; Detroit already had a massive payroll and established players in most positions.\u00a0 Tampa made the playoffs in a year they slashed payroll by 40% in the AL east.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>NL MVP<\/strong>: another award that will be roundly criticized by Sabre-nerds, since Kemp had a slightly better statistical season.\u00a0 However I agree 100% with <strong>Mark Zuckerman<\/strong>&#8216;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.natsinsider.com\/2011\/11\/my-nl-mvp-ballot.html\">reasoning<\/a>.\u00a0 The MVP is the best player on a playoff team, unless a player on a non-playoff team has an other-worldly season.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL Cy Young<\/strong>: Even I was surprised at the overwhelming win; 27 of 32 first place votes.\u00a0 Halladay the easy 2nd place winner, though we&#8217;re bound to hear stat-heads whining that Halladay had the more impactful season.\u00a0 Interesting that <strong>Ian Kennedy<\/strong> garnered one first place vote; thankfully it didn&#8217;t factor into any of the eventual results, because anyone who thought Kennedy&#8217;s season was better than the first three pitchers was crazy.\u00a0 I think the Kershaw vote was predictable if only because Halladay already has a Cy Young to his credit, and voters wanted to give the award to someone new.\u00a0 Predictably, <strong>Keith Law<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/mlb\/blog\/_\/name\/law_keith\/id\/7246693\/revealing-my-national-leahue-cy-young-ballot\">voted against the majority<\/a> in a major award category, as he&#8217;s done the past few years.\u00a0 I say predictably because Law represents the stat-heavy minded voter that, while probably correct in their voting way, does not represent the majority of current voters and thus made the predictability of this award relatively straight forward.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s <strong>Amanda Comak<\/strong>&#8216;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/blog\/nationals-watch\/2011\/nov\/17\/breaking-down-one-writers-ballot-nl-cy-young\/\">vote and explanation<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL Rookie<\/strong>: Again, no surprise that Kimbrel won unanimously, as most older voters notoriously over-rate closers.\u00a0 But there wasn&#8217;t a better choice than Kimbrel after his dominant season.\u00a0 Atlanta shows how good a franchise they have been in developing talent lately with 1st and 2nd place in this competition, to go with the excellent <strong>Brandon Beachy<\/strong>.\u00a0 Watch out next year for <strong>Julio Teheran<\/strong> and <strong>Arodys Vizcaino<\/strong> to be early ROY candidates.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL Comeback Player<\/strong>:\u00a0 No offense to Berkman&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/berkmla01.shtml\">incredible offensive season<\/a>, but its not as if he was exactly chopped liver prior to 2011. Vogelsong hadn&#8217;t <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/v\/vogelry01.shtml\">appeared in the majors<\/a> since 2006!\u00a0 Vogelsong was one of this year&#8217;s great feel-good stories, stuck in the minors for years and then putting up a fantastic season covering for the injured <strong>Barry Zito<\/strong> at the age of 33.\u00a0 The players showed why they can&#8217;t be trusted to vote properly; Vogelsong is the definition of a comeback player.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL Executive<\/strong>: Melvin&#8217;s all-in approach for 2011 worked, and he was rewarded for it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"_mcePaste\" style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 252px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\">http:\/\/www.freep.com\/article\/20111116\/SPORTS02\/111116004\/Dave-Dombrowski-co-winner-Sporting-News-Executive-Year-award?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CSports%7Cs<strong>:<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here&#8217;s a wrap up of the end of season awards.\u00a0 I posted my predictions here (albeit without MLB comeback player of the year predictions, since those came out very early in the off-season). Final results: For the 2nd year running, I went 8-for-8 in predicting the BBWAA awards.\u00a0\u00a0 But I will say this; predicting these [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2667,6,5],"tags":[140,471,209,343,230,426,246,961,469,241,432,415,187,243,281,49,406,239,467,419,404,50,1913,44,110,431,338,409,301,145,229,408,287,183,284,304,119,388,468,283,429],"class_list":["post-3052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-awards","category-nonnatsbaseball","category-natsgeneral","tag-amanda-comak","tag-arodys-vizcaino","tag-barry-zito","tag-bartolo-colon","tag-brandon-beachy","tag-clayton-kershaw","tag-cliff-lee","tag-craig-kimbrel","tag-don-dombrowski","tag-doug-fister","tag-doug-melvin","tag-eric-hosmer","tag-freddie-freeman","tag-ian-kennedy","tag-jacoby-ellsbury","tag-james-shields","tag-jered-weaver","tag-jeremy-hellickson","tag-jim-leyland","tag-joe-maddon","tag-jose-bautista","tag-josh-beckett","tag-julio-teheran","tag-justin-verlander","tag-keith-law","tag-kirk-gibson","tag-lance-berkman","tag-mark-trumbo","tag-mark-zuckerman","tag-matt-kemp","tag-matt-moore","tag-michael-pineda","tag-michael-young","tag-prince-fielder","tag-ron-roenicke","tag-ron-washington","tag-roy-halladay","tag-ryan-braun","tag-ryan-vogelsong","tag-tony-larussa","tag-vance-worley"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3052","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3052"}],"version-history":[{"count":28,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3052\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14412,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3052\/revisions\/14412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3052"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3052"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3052"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}