{"id":3346,"date":"2011-12-12T08:14:58","date_gmt":"2011-12-12T13:14:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3346"},"modified":"2022-11-17T10:02:10","modified_gmt":"2022-11-17T15:02:10","slug":"nats-non-tender-deadline-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3346","title":{"rendered":"Non-Tender deadline 2011 decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Is Gorzelanny going to be tendered? Find out today. Photo via Nats.<\/p><\/div>\n

The next big date on the MLB offseason calendar<\/a> happens today, Monday December 12th.  This is the “Non-Tender Deadline,” or the last day for teams to tender 2012 contracts to players under reserve.  In english, this means that all the Nats arbitration eligible players must be “tendered” a 2012 contract by this date or else they become immediate free agents.<\/p>\n

Here’s a list of the Nationals that are arbitration eligible this off-season, their 2011 salary and an estimate of what they would cost for 2012 if offered arbitration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/td>\nCurrent or 2011 Contract<\/td>\n2011<\/td>\n2012<\/td>\n2012 guess<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Clippard, Tyler<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.443M (11)<\/td>\n$443,000<\/td>\nArb 1<\/td>\n$1,700,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Flores, Jesus<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.75M (11)<\/td>\n$750,000<\/td>\nArb 3<\/td>\n$800,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gorzelanny, Tom<\/td>\n1 yr\/$2.1M (11)<\/td>\n$2,100,000<\/td>\nArb 3<\/td>\n$2,800,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lannan, John<\/td>\n1yr\/2.75M (11)<\/td>\n$2,750,000<\/td>\nArb 2<\/td>\n$4,500,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Morse, Michael<\/td>\n1 yr\/$1.05M (11)<\/td>\n$1,050,000<\/td>\nArb 2<\/td>\n$3,900,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Slaten, Doug<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.695M; (11)<\/td>\n$695,000<\/td>\nArb 3<\/td>\n$900,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zimmermann, Jordan<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.415M (11)<\/td>\n$415,000<\/td>\nArb 1<\/td>\n$1,800,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Both Tyler Clippard<\/strong> and Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong> achieved “super-2” status, meaning they’ll get a 4th arbitration year down the road.  Contrary to other reports, Roger Bernadina<\/strong> did NOT qualify for this super-2 status, despite being right on the borderline of service days.  The above salary guesses are partly taken from mlbtraderumors.com analysis and partly adjusted to what I think the player would really earn.<\/p>\n

Side note on the way to estimate\/guess the salaries: For those with three years of arbitration, the salary achieved is usually a representation of an eventual percent of the FA salary would be for the player, based on the arbitration year.  These percentages are usually 40% of FA value for the first year of arbitration, 60% for second and 80% for third year.  Thus, using John Lannan<\/strong> as an example, his first year Arbitration salary was $2.75M, meaning that his 100% FA salary value would be $6.875M\/year.  After his good 2011 season though, I’m estimating his 100% value to be $7.5M\/year, or exactly what we paid Jason Marquis<\/strong> per year, which puts his 2012 arbitration figure at the $4.5M estimate.<\/p>\n

So, what should the Nats do with these arbitration cases?<\/p>\n

To me, five of these seven cases are straight-forward; you absolutely tender Clippard, Flores<\/strong>, Lannan, Morse<\/strong> and Zimmerman.  MASN’s Pete Kerzel<\/strong> posted his thoughts<\/a> on this same topic over the weekend and seemed to indicate there would be a question as to whether we would tender Flores; that’s crazy talk.  In a league where quality catchers are a scarcity and with Flores tearing up the Venezeulan Winter League<\/a> right now, there’s no reason to think the team would possibly lose him.  After all, we just put a journeyman AAA catcher Jhonatan Solano<\/strong> on the 40-man specifically to keep HIM from being poached.  Also, I hear rumblings that Lannan may be non-tendered under the theory that he’s not providing value worth what he’s going to be paid (roughly $4.8-$4.9M); again I think that’s misguided.  He’s a solid pitcher who gives good innings from the left hand side, and he’s only been improving since he earned a spot in the rotation.  He’s never missed a start due to injury, and if not for the first half of 2010 (when he lost his way and was demoted) he’d have a sub 4.00 career ERA, a rarity in this league.  Replacing him on the open market would absolutely cost more than he’s set to earn next year.  Plus, with any decent run support (the Nats averaged only 3.6 runs\/game in games when he started in 2011) he’d probably have a much better W\/L record.<\/p>\n

That leaves Gorzelanny<\/strong> and Slaten<\/strong>.  Case by case.<\/p>\n

1. Doug Slaten<\/strong>.  Here’s a list of pertinent stats<\/a> for Slaten’s 2011 season as the primary LOOGY out of our pen:<\/p>\n