{"id":3509,"date":"2011-12-23T08:47:46","date_gmt":"2011-12-23T13:47:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3509"},"modified":"2011-12-23T08:47:46","modified_gmt":"2011-12-23T13:47:46","slug":"gio-gonzalez-big-trade-big-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3509","title":{"rendered":"Gio Gonzalez: Big Trade, Big Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nats go all-in for Gonzalez. Is it worth the cost? Photo Jed Jacobsohn\/Getty Images via nydailynews.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Well, the rumors turned out to be true.\u00a0 The Nats today traded four major prospects for Oakland’s Gio Gonzalez<\/strong>.\u00a0 Early reactions from fans on MLBtraderumors<\/a> were all over the road; some said this will give Washington the Wild Card in 2012, others said Oakland fleeced Rizzo on the deal.\u00a0 Predictably, Keith Law<\/strong> said that the Nationals over-paid<\/a> in terms of prospects, calling AJ Cole <\/strong>the gem of the deal but paying little attention to the other three players.\u00a0 Law is obsessed with ceiling arms and would rather have a projected #1 in Low-A versus a bird-in-hand guy like Peacock who has already debuted, so you have to take his opinion with a grain of salt.<\/p>\n

First things first, how good do you think Gonzalez really is?\u00a0 Without having done major analysis of the guy, I’ve considered him in the past to be one of a slew of “#2 pitchers” on Oakland’s rotation.\u00a0 He’s put in two straight solid seasons<\/a> pitching in Oakland, but we all know that Oakland’s a pitcher’s park with massive foul grounds that turn souvenirs into outs.\u00a0 However, even I was surprised when checking the Park Effects of Oakland; it only rates as a 97 or 98 in the Park effect<\/a> measurements on baseball-reference.com for the last couple of years.\u00a0 By comparison, San Diego’s Petco Park (notoriously the best pitcher’s park in the league) was a 92\/100.\u00a0 Other known pitcher’s parks in San Francisco, Tampa, Anaheim and Seattle all scored well below Oakland’s park this year.\u00a0 So, maybe the Oakland effect is over-stated by the media.<\/p>\n

A quick glance at Gonzalez’s 2011 splits<\/a> give me a bit more to go on; yes he was good in Oakland (10-5 with a 2.70 era) but he was more than servicable away (6-7, 3.62 era).\u00a0 When he’s winning, he’s fantastic (1.37 ERA in 16 wins), but his ERA in his no-decisions was BETTER than in his wins (1.09 in 4 no decisions), indicating that he had a few unlucky no-decisions and could have been a 20-game winner with a bit better run support.\u00a0 Looking a bit deeper at his advanced pitching stats<\/a> shows that there’s nothing surprising; he’s got a normal BABIP of .287, his Fip was a pretty good 3.64 last year, and his xFIP was just slightly higher at 3.73.\u00a0 All good signs; there’s nothing that really indicates that his conventional numbers were really “lucky” in any way.<\/p>\n

He’s a low ERA, so-so WHIP (1.32 last year), high walk, high strikeout lefty arm that should benefit from coming to the NL.\u00a0 Simple as that.\u00a0 He’s going to put guys on base and depends on a good defense to bail him out, but he also strikes out a ton of guys and can get himself out of jams.<\/p>\n

One last thing that is a huge plus on Gonzalez; he’s under team control for FOUR more years.\u00a0 He’s heading into his first arbitration year this spring, is going to be a super-2, meaning the club controls him THROUGH 2015.\u00a0 Honestly, when you look at the cost of our prospects given up, a lot of that has to do with this fact here.\u00a0 A strong young guy who isn’t hitting FA for years to come?\u00a0 That’s pretty valuable in this league.<\/p>\n

Ok, I’ve talked myself into being excited to see this guy in our rotation.\u00a0 Now, can I stomach the prospect loss?\u00a0 Here’s the four guys we sent over.<\/p>\n