{"id":3644,"date":"2012-01-05T08:56:01","date_gmt":"2012-01-05T13:56:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3644"},"modified":"2012-01-05T08:56:01","modified_gmt":"2012-01-05T13:56:01","slug":"ask-boswell-1312-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3644","title":{"rendered":"Ask Boswell 1\/3\/12 edition"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Fielder-to-the-Nats rumors just won't die. Photo unknown via baltimoresportsreport.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Happy New Year!\u00a0 Here’s Tom Boswell<\/strong>‘s weekly Monday chat done today Tuesday 1\/3\/12<\/a>. With the Redskins season mercifully over, I’d expect a bunch of questions related to post mortem-ing the team, but there’s also been a flurry of baseball moves.<\/p>\n

Of the baseball questions he took, here’s how I’d have answered them.\u00a0 As always, questions are edited for clarity and I write my own answer prior to reading his.<\/p>\n

Q: Hey Bos, I don’t think the Nationals should sign him for top dollar. I don’t even think they should sign him for the right price and years. BUT, I think the Nats would be foolish not to CONSIDER signing him for the right price and years.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A: That’s crazy; for the right price and years, Prince Fielder <\/strong>is one of the best 10 hitters in the game.\u00a0 This team needs offense, not more pitching.\u00a0 It needs a big bopper in the middle of the order (ala Adam Dunn<\/strong>) and lineup protection for Zimmerman<\/strong> and Werth<\/strong>.\u00a0 Its no coincidence that Zimmerman’s two best offensive seasons were with Dunn protecting him in the 4-hole, nor that our best offensive season in years came in 2009 with our 3-4-5 hitters all successful.\u00a0 Now; do I want Fielder for 8-10 years?\u00a0 No; nor does anyone else apparently.\u00a0 Boswell intimates that the (cheap) Lerners are choosing between Fielder and Zimmerman.\u00a0 He just can’t get off his ridiculous column of last week<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: What are your thoughts on the Gio Gonzalez trade? It seems like it was a pretty high cost to give up both Cole and Peacock.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A: I’ve posted my thoughts in this same space<\/a>.\u00a0 Short version: I like the trade for who we got based on our prospects not entirely fulfilling their promise.\u00a0 Boswell says the trade should work for both sides but also talks about how difficult it was to get approval for the trade and the symbolism involved.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: So, are the Nats in on Fielder or not? Did Boras and Fielder meet with Rizzo and the Lerners in DC? What about a long term, Matt Moore type deal for Zimmermann (Jordan)? Who penciled in at CF?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A: So many questions.\u00a0 My guesses: Nats are in on Fielder since the years may be dropping.\u00a0 Boras definitely met with Rizzo\/Lerners.\u00a0 Its pre-mature to sign Zimmermann to a Moore deal (that deal may still backfire for Tampa; he’s only thrown a few MLB innings), and Mike Cameron <\/strong>is your opening day CFer.\u00a0\u00a0 Boswell doesn’t answer any of these questions, but gives out a great link at jdland.com<\/a> pertaining to the removal of the eye-sore gravel factory!<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: Why go for Gonzalez and not go for Fielder? You’re either all-in or not.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A: A fair question; I think the team looked at its 2012 rotation and saw weakness at the back end, as well as some innings limitations throughout, and thought it needed a guy who they could count on for innings.\u00a0 Initially it was Buerhle<\/strong> but they got out bid, and lucky for them they ended up with a better player.\u00a0 The prospects we gave up were significant … but then again, there’s a lot of people who say “there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect.”\u00a0 Meaning, they’re high risk, high reward.\u00a0 We traded 3 guys who may never amount to anything for a guy in Gonzalez who we KNOW what he is, right now. Boswell does some “big body” slugger analysis and seems to be talking himself into Fielder<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Are the Nats really crazy (my opinion) enough to bring Bryce Harper up before May and risk losing him a year early to free agency? Granted a center field of Roger Bernadina and Mike Cameron or a similar right-handed batter is less than compelling, but what’s six weeks or so in the grand scheme of things? Basing so much of their strategy on Werth being the centerfielder for the season or more (not that he isn’t capable, a gamer, and all that) also seems high risk. What are the smart moves here?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A: Well put question.\u00a0 I agree; 6 weeks over the course of 7 years is nothing, especially since it saves the team millions and millions<\/a> by keeping Harper in the minors.\u00a0 I’m ok starting the season with Cameron in center, Werth in right and Harper in AA.\u00a0 Likewise, I’m also ok starting with Werth in center, a FA to be named in right, with an eye towards Harper in July.\u00a0 Boswell agrees, but can’t help himself and does a ton of WAR analysis on young players.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: For those of us who read your stuff regularly and respect what you have to say, you owe us an explanation. What happened between your chat on December 19 and your column published less than 48 hours later that caused you to so radically change your view from “Rizzo has the authority to make to make deals” to “the cheapo Lerners just don’t get it.” And please don’t insult the intelligence of your readers by trying to say the two positions were totally consistent.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A: Wow.\u00a0 Demanding a complete mea culpa from this ridiculous column<\/a> (see my reaction to it<\/a>).\u00a0 Lets see what he says: Boswell says the facts changed between his chat and his column and then the deal. <\/em><\/p>\n

Q: With the issues of the other NL east teams (some of which are pretty arguable in the question), does Fielder make the Nats a contender for the next 3 years?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A: Undoubtedly yes.\u00a0 Mark Zuckerman<\/strong> did a nice little WAR analysis<\/a>, showing how, without any more moves, the team could very well be a 90-91 win team in 2012.\u00a0\u00a0 With Fielder, we’d be closer to a 96 win team most likely.\u00a0 Boswell agrees w\/ the question, saying though that he thought the team wouldn’t contend til 2013. <\/em><\/p>\n

Q:Who is the Nats CF in 2013?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A: Who possibly knows.\u00a0 Upton<\/strong> will be a FA.\u00a0 So will Michael Bourn<\/strong>.\u00a0 Harper could (should?) be playing CF; he’s athletic enough and it would greatly enhance his value.\u00a0 Werth can man RF for the time being and then we can find a bopper to play LF if Morse moves to 1b.\u00a0 Or we buy Fielder, Morse stays in LF for a while and you’re set.\u00a0 Boswell says Werth only goes to CF if Harper comes up… but I think it should be the reverse frankly.<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Final word<\/strong><\/em>: there was a fantastic piece of analysis phrased in the form of a question, where a chatter did a good piece of investigative work and discovered that Oakland’s foul grounds perhaps costs Gonzalez 6-13 runs over the course of his career, or a run every 15th start or so.\u00a0 Further proof in my mind that Oakland’s park effects are overstated.\u00a0 Its a must read.\u00a0 About 60% down in the chat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Happy New Year!\u00a0 Here’s Tom Boswell‘s weekly Monday chat done today Tuesday 1\/3\/12. With the Redskins season mercifully over, I’d expect a bunch of questions related to post mortem-ing the team, but there’s also been a flurry of baseball moves. Of the baseball questions he took, here’s how I’d have answered them.\u00a0 As always, questions […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5,534],"tags":[139,17,188,35,164,385,115,43,339,301,229,175,578,129,183,167,36,180,366,125],"class_list":["post-3644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nonnatsbaseball","category-natsgeneral","category-weekly-news","tag-adam-dunn","tag-aj-cole","tag-bj-upton","tag-brad-peacock","tag-bryce-harper","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-jayson-werth","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-mark-buehrle","tag-mark-zuckerman","tag-matt-moore","tag-michael-bourn","tag-mike-cameron","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-prince-fielder","tag-roger-bernadina","tag-ryan-zimmerman","tag-scott-boras","tag-ted-lerner","tag-tom-boswell"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3644"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3644\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3660,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3644\/revisions\/3660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}