{"id":3690,"date":"2012-01-11T10:22:04","date_gmt":"2012-01-11T15:22:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3690"},"modified":"2013-01-13T11:06:31","modified_gmt":"2013-01-13T16:06:31","slug":"ask-boswell-1912-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3690","title":{"rendered":"Ask Boswell 1\/9\/12 edition"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Tired of Prince Fielder rumors yet? Photo: AP\/Morry Gash<\/p><\/div>\n

Here’s Tom Boswell<\/strong>‘s weekly Monday chat on 11\/28\/11.\u00a0 Of the baseball questions he took, here’s how I’d have answered them.\u00a0 With the Wizard’s 0-8 start there’s a lot of kvetching about NBA.<\/p>\n

As always, questions are edited for clarity and I write my own answer prior to reading his.<\/p>\n

Q: What is your “take” on Ross Detwiler and could he become a better pitcher than Gio Gonzalez?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A: My “take” on Ross Detwiler<\/strong> is that he’s too frail to stay healthy long enough to be counted on for heavy-duty innings, and that he throws too much across his body to get his breaking stuff to work properly.\u00a0 Now, throwing across your body isn’t a bad thing (see Johnson, Randy<\/strong>) but Detwiler’s never been consistent long enough to be anything more than an emergency\/late season starter for this team.\u00a0 Can he be better than Gio Gonzalez<\/strong>?\u00a0 Not really; Gonzalez is only a year older but has 60 more MLB starts, an all-star appearance and the talent to win 20 games in the AL.\u00a0 If Detwiler was really that promising … we wouldn’t have acquired Gonzalez in the first place.\u00a0 Boswell says the team likes Detwiler, but Johnson likes a lefty heavy rotation in this division.\u00a0 But the team already has 5 starters signed to major league contracts, so I can’t see how Detwiler wins anything more than a bullpen spot<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Is Prince Fielder really coming here?\u00a0 Why is there so little market for him?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A: I’ll answer the 2nd part first; there’s so little market for Prince Fielder<\/strong> for several reasons.<\/p>\n

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  1. If you look at the top payroll clubs<\/a>, basically every team either has a long-term 1B commitment (names like Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Paul Konerko, Justin Morneau, <\/strong>and Miguel Cabrera<\/strong>) or is dealing with topped-out payroll or financial issues (Mets, Giants, Dodgers) that are preventing them from purchasing a big-money star.\u00a0 So lots of your usual suspects are out.\u00a0 He’s left trying to convince mostly 2nd-tier payroll clubs to spend like first tier clubs.<\/li>\n
  2. His agent Scott Boras<\/strong> is generally the “lets wait and try to build a crescendo of rumors” type of agent.\u00a0 It has clearly worked in the past … but it doesn’t seem to be working now.\u00a0 I think Boras’ strategy has run its course to a certain extent and teams are wary of the “mystery team” in on these major players.<\/li>\n
  3. Fielder isn’t exactly an adonis of a physical specimen.\u00a0 He’s got a bad body, hasn’t really shown that he can control his weight, and has a pretty good barometer of his future physical condition in the form of his MLB playing father Cecil Fielder<\/strong>.\u00a0 Prince may be young and may clearly be a top5 hitter in the league, but teams are not going to want to put up 8\u00a0 year commitments for a player who may be washed up by the time he’s 34.\u00a0 To make matters worse, Prince is a below-average first baseman AND only a handful of teams have available money and available DH spots.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Frankly, I think Prince needs to sign a shorter term deal with high AAV, get a team like the Nats to commit and then re-hit the FA market at age 30-31 when he’ll still have value.<\/p>\n

    Now, is he coming to the Nats?\u00a0 If I was Mike Rizzo<\/strong> i’d sign him in a heartbeat for 3yrs\/$75M.\u00a0 I’d balk at an 8-year deal.\u00a0 But, the rumors persist and have been swirling for more than 2 weeks.\u00a0 So where there’s heat, there’s likely fire.\u00a0 Boswell says that the key date is Jan 18th, the day that the Rangers either sign or cut bait on Yu Darvish<\/strong>.\u00a0 If the Rangers suddenly have $120M that they didn’t think they’d have yesterday, they will sign Fielder<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    Q: Baseball is set to announce their HOf inductees for 2012 today. Anyone you feel strongly about that should get in? What are your thoughts on Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: (note that I’m writing this BEFORE the 3pm announcement, so by the time you read this we’ll know who got in and who didn’t)<\/p>\n

    Who I believe WILL get elected: Barry Larkin<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Who I believe SHOULD be in the Hall<\/a>: Jeff Bagwell, Jack Morris, Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, Mark McGwire, Edgar Martinez.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    What do I think about Murphy <\/strong>and Mattingly<\/strong>?\u00a0 Both suffer from more or less the same issue: they were both great players for very short amounts of time.\u00a0 Murphy was a better player all in all than we remembered and for four seasons (82-86) was probably THE best player in the game.\u00a0 Mattingly retired at 33 and was solid but had the same 4-year excellence followed by less flashy seasons.\u00a0 They’re good players who weren’t transcendent enough to get their own plaques in Cooperstown.\u00a0 Boswell mostly agrees with the above<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    Q: What do you think of this scenario: Fielder signs elsewhere, LaRoche starts out hot, we flip him to Tampa for Upton as Harper takes over in RF and Morse moves to 1B. <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: Sounds great.\u00a0 Except that this scenario really only serves the perfect world desires of the Nationals.\u00a0 In reality LaRoche <\/strong>is a slow starter and we may really hear the boo-birds early.\u00a0 Morse <\/strong>was great in 2011 but most predict a sliding back.\u00a0 Harper <\/strong>probably needs some MLB adjustment time.\u00a0 We’ll see what happens.\u00a0 Boswell likes this scenario. <\/strong>Sure, who wouldn’t?\u00a0 But it does sound a bit too convenient.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Q: Is there ANY chance Boras goes for something like 3yrs\/$75mil for Prince?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: Yeah, I think there is a chance, as described above.\u00a0 He’ll push for longer though until the last possible minute, so this won’t play out for a while and we’ll continue to hear rumors for weeks.\u00a0 Boswell says it’ll “never happen.”\u00a0 And lays out a doomsday payroll scenario for the team.\u00a0 Which I don’t entirely buy; we’ve been at $60-65M in payroll for 6 years … despite being in a very wealthy market.\u00a0 At some point, this team will be good, will draw fans to the park and will increase revenues.\u00a0 And the payroll should rise to reflect that.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Q: Where are the Nats finding the (approximately) 60 runs they’ll need to add (assuming pitching stays constant) in order to go from 80 to 90 wins?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: A good question.\u00a0 Some from Zimmerman<\/strong>, some from LaRoche, some from natural improvements from Desmond, Espinosa<\/strong>, and Ramos<\/strong>, and some from a rebound year from Werth<\/strong>.\u00a0 That’s a LOT of assumpions.\u00a0 Fielder would *really* help in the run creation department (he created 35 more runs than Morse last year … that’d be 5-6 wins all by himself).\u00a0 Boswell echos much of the above<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    Q: Where do you (as an assumed HoFame voter) draw the line between admitted and suspected when it comes to steroids and the HOF?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: If it were me, I’d go based on existing evidence.\u00a0 That’s all you can do.\u00a0 And the Mitchell Report is not really “evidence,” but more heresay and he said-she said.\u00a0 So Palmeiro<\/strong> and McGwire<\/strong> have some warts.\u00a0 Bagwell<\/strong> does not and it is generally unfair to lump him into the steroid-poster boy club.\u00a0 Boswell agrees with the above … too bad he doesn’t have a vote to defend year after year.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Q: Given what we\u00a0 now know about the Steroid era, is there any reason to suspect Cal Ripken of using?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: (The allegation also being that Ripken <\/strong>was friends with Brady Anderson<\/strong>, whose 50 homer season seems awfully suspicious in hind-sight).\u00a0 Nobody’s ever said a word about Ripken and PEDs.\u00a0 You have to think he was well aware of his legacy the closer he got to 2130 games.\u00a0 I’d be shocked if he was shown to be a user.\u00a0 Him and Derek Jeter<\/strong> would be probably the two most shocking PED revelations in the history of the game, if they turned out to be true.\u00a0 Boswell doesn’t think Ripken profiled to a typical user<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    Q: Why isn’t there more narrative about how the Werth contract is really killing this team, when considering the future payroll implications of having Werth, Zimmerman and Fielder potentially signed to long term, $20M+ AAV contracts?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: I’m sure it is internally.\u00a0 It certainly is everywhere else in the blogosphere.\u00a0 The Werth contract is pretty indefensible, certainly was at the time it was signed and is even more so now.\u00a0 I just hope the guy has a bounce back season and really contributes.<\/p>\n

    Q: How does the TV money rise so much in the MASN deal?\u00a0 Aren’t viewer numbers abhorrent?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: Good question.\u00a0 I don’t know.\u00a0 Boswell has the answer; the contract is tied not to revenues or ad money, but to comparable RSN sizes in other markets.\u00a0 And right now Houston and Dallas (our two closest sized cities) get 2-3 TIMES the money out of their RSNs.\u00a0 I cackle at watching Angelos have to write checks to the Nats, but really wish they’d cancel the contract altogether.\u00a0 I hate the fact that we’re enriching Angelos day after day.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Q: Why do the HoFame voters suddenly agree to induct a player?\u00a0 If he’s good enough on the first ballot, he should be good enough on any ballot.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: Because there’s a cache to being a “First Ballot Hall of Famer” and LOTS of voters exclude guys on the first vote as a result.\u00a0 There’s never been a unanimous selection, and there never will be.\u00a0 But there’s plenty of guys who were very good players who got in on #2 or #3 ballot.\u00a0 Guys like Blyleven<\/strong> and Rice<\/strong> who languish for a decade on the ballot are rare.\u00a0 Boswell agrees<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    Q: Is Toronto a more likely landing spot for Fielder, since they were all-in for Darvish and lost out?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: Makes sense frankly.\u00a0 They could be sensing weakness in the Boston and Yankees lack of activity this off-season … Boswell says it makes sense but makes a good point; does Fielder want to commit to Toronto, knowing they’ll get outspent year after year by Boston and New York?\u00a0 Does he commit to a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since the divisions split?\u00a0 Would you?
    \n<\/em><\/p>\n

    Q: How similar is Harper’s call-up situation to Mickey Mantle’s situation?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: Not very.\u00a0 Completely different baseball climates.\u00a0 Harper has his millions already, and there’s very specific service time implications.\u00a0 Mantle played under the reserve clause, there was no service time issues, no arbitration, no free agency.\u00a0 So the Yankees could do whatever they wanted with him year after year.\u00a0 Boswell doesn’t really comment<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    Q: Does Fielder make sense if the Nats are planning on building a cost-controlled dynasty?\u00a0 The 1998 yankees didn’t have any 30-homer players, let alone a big bopper at $25M\/year.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    A: Fair.\u00a0 Lots of Nats bloggers keep coming back to the payroll implications of Werth, extending Zimmerman and buying Fielder.\u00a0 And they’re fair.\u00a0 That doesn’t even talk about what to do with other big-time stars we have to deal with potentially.\u00a0 But i’ll respond by saying this; we don’t KNOW what the owner’s payroll limits are.\u00a0 All we have to go by is the past payroll figures.\u00a0 What if this team is just biding its time before blowing out payroll to $120M?\u00a0 Boswell says this is well put and signs off.<\/em><\/p>\n


    \n<\/em><\/p>\n


    \n<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n


    \n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Here’s Tom Boswell‘s weekly Monday chat on 11\/28\/11.\u00a0 Of the baseball questions he took, here’s how I’d have answered them.\u00a0 With the Wizard’s 0-8 start there’s a lot of kvetching about NBA. As always, questions are edited for clarity and I write my own answer prior to reading his. Q: What is your “take” on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,14,1390,5],"tags":[184,403,123,574,572,188,682,164,681,678,679,135,137,354,656,606,385,114,575,115,576,683,677,667,674,136,161,405,129,676,183,646,374,51,675,36,180,573,125,147,300],"class_list":["post-3690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nonnatsbaseball","category-chatmailbag-responses","category-hall-of-fame","category-natsgeneral","tag-adam-laroche","tag-adrian-gonzalez","tag-albert-pujols","tag-barry-larkin","tag-bert-blyleven","tag-bj-upton","tag-brady-anderson","tag-bryce-harper","tag-cal-ripken","tag-cecil-fielder","tag-dale-murphy","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-davey-johnson","tag-derek-jeter","tag-don-mattingly","tag-edgar-martinez","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-ian-desmond","tag-jack-morris","tag-jayson-werth","tag-jeff-bagwell","tag-jim-rice","tag-justin-morneau","tag-mark-mcgwire","tag-mark-teixeira","tag-michael-morse","tag-mickey-mantle","tag-miguel-cabrera","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-paul-konerko","tag-prince-fielder","tag-rafael-palmeiro","tag-randy-johnson","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-ryan-howard","tag-ryan-zimmerman","tag-scott-boras","tag-tim-raines","tag-tom-boswell","tag-wilson-ramos","tag-yu-darvish"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3690"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3690\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5155,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3690\/revisions\/5155"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}