{"id":3927,"date":"2012-03-01T11:55:55","date_gmt":"2012-03-01T15:55:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3927"},"modified":"2013-08-29T13:50:52","modified_gmt":"2013-08-29T17:50:52","slug":"updated-minor-league-rotation-predictions-for-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3927","title":{"rendered":"Updated Minor League Rotation Predictions for 2012"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Solis’ TJ surgery news thins our already-too-thin starting pitching minor league depth. Photo via Natsinsider blog\/Mark Zuckerman<\/p><\/div>\n

With Spring Training in full swing, most of the focus is on the Nationals 25-man roster and who may or may not make it.\u00a0 Even with the additions to the major league roster, our minor league starter development is still incredibly important to this team for the long run.\u00a0 Despite having Strasburg<\/strong>, Zimmermann<\/strong> and Gonzalez<\/strong> each locked up for many years (roughly, 2016, 2016 and 2018 respectively with options exercised), the rest of the rotation is not exactly set in stone for the long run.\u00a0 Wang<\/strong> and Jackson<\/strong> are on one-year FA contracts and Lannan<\/strong> doesn’t seem a lock to be tendered this coming off season (where he’ll face arbitration for the third time and, if he stays here and puts in 30 starts, could be in line for something close to $8M in 2013).\u00a0 That is, if Lannan is still even with the team in a year’s time (he seems surplus to requirements right now and may be a trade candidate).<\/p>\n

Even more importantly, three key starters in our farm system went the other way for Gonzalez.\u00a0 Our 2012 AAA starter safety net of Milone <\/strong>and Peacock <\/strong>is now set to be the 4th and 5th starter in Oakland, and our most electric younger arm (Cole<\/strong>) is now one of Billy Beane<\/strong>‘s best prospects.<\/p>\n

That being said, lets talk about what the 2012 minor league rotations may look like, and where interest may lie with up and coming arms.\u00a0 Experienced readers will note that, by and large, I only focus on minor league starters.\u00a0 That is because, for the very large part, that pitchers rise up in the minors as starters and only get converted to be relievers upon failing as starters.\u00a0 If you look at our current bullpen; Clippard, Rodriguez, Burnett, Gorzelanny, Detwiler <\/strong>and Lidge <\/strong>are all former starters, converted to being relievers either because of poor performance or for physical reasons.\u00a0 Only Storen <\/strong>has grown up entirely as a reliever.\u00a0 Therefore, the odds of a guy who is already pitching in relief in the lower minors rising up to be a part of the MLB bullpen is relatively slim.\u00a0 Loogies?\u00a0 Another matter, but still a difficult path (just ask someone like Josh Smoker<\/strong>).\u00a0 Therefore, I tend to focus on Starters with occasional lip service given to closers per level and other relievers who are pitching their way into promotions.<\/p>\n

Luke Erickson<\/strong> has posted some predictions (for AAA<\/a>, AA<\/a>, high-A<\/a> and low-A<\/a>), I put in an updated guess<\/a> on Syracuse’s rotation post Gonzalez trade, and I had a series of posts at the end of last season wrapping up each level with predictions for 2012.\u00a0 From all those posts, here’s my preliminary guesses on the rotations for the minor league rotations:<\/p>\n