{"id":3959,"date":"2012-03-07T14:39:33","date_gmt":"2012-03-07T19:39:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3959"},"modified":"2012-03-08T10:13:46","modified_gmt":"2012-03-08T15:13:46","slug":"ask-boswell-3512","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3959","title":{"rendered":"Ask Boswell 3\/5\/12"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here’s Tom Boswell<\/strong>‘s weekly Monday chat from 3\/5\/12<\/a>.\u00a0 Of the baseball questions he took, here’s how I’d have answered them.\u00a0 While lots of questions pertained to the recent Gregg Williams<\/strong> “bounty” issues and whether or not the Redskins partook during his time here, the starting of spring training has got Nats fans pretty excited.<\/p>\n

As always, questions are edited for clarity and I write my own answer prior to reading his.<\/p>\n

Q: What do you think the Nats w\/l record will be? \u00a0Can they win 90 games?<\/span><\/p>\n

A: For a team that won 80 last year (though their pythagorean W\/L record was slightly worse), I don’t think its a stretch to assume they can improve another 10 games. \u00a0Mark Zuckerman<\/strong> did a nice little WAR analysis and showed that full seasons from Zimmerman<\/strong>, LaRoche<\/strong> and Strasburg<\/strong>, along with the new additions of Gonzalez<\/strong> and Jackson<\/strong> *should* give the team at least another 10 wins, perhaps a bit more. \u00a0That’s assuming basically that everyone else performs at the same levels they did last year, and it assumes that the WAR stat directly translates to wins on the field. \u00a0In reality, you have to plan for some people to step up while others step back. \u00a0Can we assume that Morse<\/strong> will hit 30 homers again? \u00a0Its a tough one to assume; he could break a leg and suddenly our offense is in tatters.<\/p>\n

That’s why I’ve been a bit more conservative, predicting 8 more wins for this team and have them at 88-74 with this squad. \u00a0If the team is in the WC hunt, and they augment the offense, or if Harper<\/strong> comes up and produces … suddenly that’s a 90-91 win team. \u00a0Boswell didn’t really answer this question, just went off on Strasburg tangents<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Who is your opening day starter?<\/span><\/p>\n

A: barring injury it has to be Strasburg. \u00a0I think your initial 5-man rotation goes like this, in this order: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann<\/strong>, Jackson and Wang<\/strong>. \u00a0This gives you a decent righty-lefty matchup at the top. \u00a0Perhaps you replace Wang with Lannan<\/strong> and have Jackson go out 5th to get a true R-L-R-L-R rotation. \u00a0Or perhaps Davey Johnson<\/strong> doesn’t care about lefty\/righty matchups. \u00a0I’m more interested to see who the home opener starter is, since it happens 7 games into the season. \u00a0Right now it looks to be Gonzalez, which would be great, but early season rain-outs can greatly affect rotation orders. \u00a0Boswell says Strasburg but had a good caveat; if its 30 degrees and snowing in Chicago on opening day Strasburg probably won’t go.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: Where is this team’s Lenny Dykstra-esque scrappy mean streak player?<\/span><\/p>\n

A: Honestly, the Mets-to-Nats comparisons may not ever bee 100%. \u00a0 I don’t see a Dykstra<\/strong> type on this roster. \u00a0Mostly because this roster still does not have a center fielder\/lead off type, which is exactly what Dykstra was. \u00a0Boswell says that Werth may still fill this role<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Why didn’t the team keep Bixler and Nix?<\/span><\/p>\n

A: Bixler <\/strong>is a good question; for reasons unknown the team designated him for assignment in the off-season while still possessing 40-man room (inexplicably; they did this a number of times, losing Kimball<\/strong> at one point but also losing two decent players in the Rule 5 draft). \u00a0 Nix they probably thought was replaceable on the FA market … or at least obtainable for cheap. \u00a0There does always seem to be a number of halfway decent corner outfielders on the market who are available for less than what Nix got. \u00a0Boswell says Nix’s 2yr contract was the problem … the Nats want flexibility for 2014. \u00a0No mention of Bixler<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: If Tyler Clippard is our “MVP,” why isn’t he being paid more?<\/span><\/p>\n

A: Two reasons; clearly the questioner doesn’t understand the whole arbitration process. \u00a0Just because Clippard<\/strong> is our best pitches doesn’t equate to him being the highest paid player. \u00a0Veterans always make more than pre-arb guys; don’t forget the players belong to a Union, and Union members reward longevitiy. \u00a0Secondly; Clippard unfortunately is a commodity player; he’s a non-closer reliever who doesn’t rack up saves and thus won’t ever be compensated like a Jonathan Papelbon<\/strong> or a Mariano Rivera<\/strong>, despite his value to the team. \u00a0Its an unfair world in some respects, and I just hope that the Nats do him right and keep paying him while he’s productive for the team. \u00a0Boswell mirrors my two thoughts but then also says that relievers are starting to become aware of newer stats like WPA that value Clippard highly (1st in the NL last year, above big name starters like Roy Halladay<\/strong>).<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: What are your thoughts on the extra wild card?<\/span><\/p>\n

A: Baseball purists may whine and complain, but the modern professional sports scene in this country, fortunately or unfortunately, places a ton of emphasis on playoffs versus regular season accomplishment. \u00a0Even with these two additional WC teams, Baseball still has the fewest of its teams reaching the regular season of any of the four major sports. \u00a0And, in a sport where payroll disparities may not determine the World Series victor every year they clearly help predict the playoff contendors (Yankees: one missed playoff appearance since 1994), having more teams in competition for the playoffs is good for the sport. \u00a0Frankly I’d like to see Baseball go to a 32-team\/8-division structure similar to the NFL and adopt the NFL’s exact playoff structure. \u00a0The problem there is finding two more markets without cannibalizing the NY or LA market. \u00a0Boswell says “time will tell,” but also admits that he hated the first WC round initially but likes it now. \u00a0He also points out something I hadn’t thought of; the importance of your #3 starter with a new round of playoffs.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: Should the team just skip Strasburg’s start every few times to extend his 160IP limit until the end of the season?<\/span><\/p>\n

A: It isn’t a bad idea; Zimmermann <\/strong>skipped one start and hit his 160IPs at roughly September 1st. \u00a0So skipping a few more starts for Strasburg would put him well into September. \u00a0But I don’t think he’ll be served well by jacking around his days rest. \u00a0Starters depend on getting into routines in order to pitch their best. \u00a0Honestly I think this situation may very well play it self out naturally; even in 2010 Strasburg had two separate DL stints; if he spends 30 days or so on the DL at various times we’ll get a full season out of him. \u00a0Boswell agrees with me on the not-skipping-a-start theory<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: How secure is Ramos as the #1 catcher? <\/span><\/p>\n

A: I’d say he’s pretty secure. \u00a0Flores<\/strong> may have had a good winter, but winter leagues aren’t exactly MLB quality. \u00a0Flores’ injury history has more or less derailed his career, and that’s unfortunate. \u00a0The team has found a solid #1 in Ramos<\/strong> and will stick with him, with Flores getting his typical 1 or 2 starts a week. \u00a0The inclusion of Derek Norris<\/strong> in the Gonzalez package also spoke volumes about where this team thinks it is in terms of catcher depth, as does the 40-man addition of Maldonado<\/strong>, a journeyman catcher who now benefits from a distinct lack of upper-level minor league catcher depth. \u00a0Look for the team to make catcher a focus in the 2012 draft to start back up the catcher pipeline. \u00a0In the mean time, I doubt Flores will be trade bait even if he performs amazingly well, at least until we find another catcher in the wings. \u00a0Boswell says Ramos is as #1 as any #1 can be<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q: Who are the best catchers ever?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A: For a combination of defense, calling games, arm strength as well as offense, i’d go with Johnny Bench<\/strong>. \u00a0But you also have to throw in Ivan Rodriguez<\/strong> in his prime. \u00a0Mike Piazza<\/strong> was notoriously bad defensively. \u00a0Jorge Posada<\/strong> was subpar defensively in his later years but was a monster bat. \u00a0I’d include other names from the past few decades like Carlton Fisk.<\/strong> Before Fisk and Bench, there was a dearth of HoF inductees from the catcher position for some 30 years, to Yogi Berra<\/strong> who is probably the benchmark for all-around catchers (with Bench). \u00a0 Boswell says Bench as well, but mentions Varitek with Posada. \u00a0Interesting<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q: What is the team going to do with Ian Desmond?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A: I’d guess that 2012 is the make it or break it year for Desmond<\/strong>. \u00a0If he’s hitting .220 at the all-star break without significant value proven at the SS position, the team may make a change. \u00a0Move Espinosa<\/strong> to SS, install DeRosa<\/strong> as starting 2B, look to move Desmond and perhaps make Lombardozzi<\/strong> the utility guy. \u00a0I also find it very interesting that Anthony Rendon<\/strong> is getting reps at both 2B and SS; if that kind of hitter can slot in at short stop on even an as-needed basis he could be even more of a dangerous prospect than he already is. \u00a0Boswell agrees; this is a big year for Desmond<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q: If catcher is so important, why did we move Bryce Harper away from the position?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A: one word: longevity. \u00a0Yeah he was a catcher growing up but catchers get the crap beat out of them, have constant injury concerns, and the wear and tear of catching affects their hitting. \u00a0With such a bat potential, he needs to be on the field and playing 162 games. \u00a0That being said, I was slightly surprised that he didn’t at least try to stick at C for at least a little bit of his career … but understand the reasoning stated. \u00a0Boswell said the same things I said, but added that scouts didn’t really think he was a natural catcher anyway, so he got moved to the OF quickly<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q: What would MLB’s response be to the same “bounty” scandal going on in the NFL?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A: Hard one; its not like purposeful bean-balls without context are common in the MLB. \u00a0And the game is just too random to purposely try to spike someone, or slide into them on purpose, or to purposely hit a catcher. \u00a0These plays are so bang-bang and so naturally occurring to baseball players who have played all their lives that they’re hard to script. \u00a0If it was found out to be happening? \u00a0Long suspensions. \u00a0Boswell thinks such a situation would be lifetime bans, if proven<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Q: Strasburg has never pitched more than 7 innings, at any level, ever. \u00a0Is this a concern?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A: I have a hard time believing this, but won’t challenge the questioner since I’m not entirely in a position to go searching through the guy’s college career. \u00a0Is it a concern? \u00a0eh. \u00a0Its modern baseball. \u00a0No more 150 pitch games, no more 38 start seasons. \u00a0 \u00a0Little leaguers have pitch count\/innings limits, high school teams only play twice a week. \u00a0College rotations you go once a week. \u00a0I’d only be concerned if he showed any inclination of slowing down later in games, which he doesn’t. \u00a0Boswell isn’t concerned<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here’s Tom Boswell‘s weekly Monday chat from 3\/5\/12.\u00a0 Of the baseball questions he took, here’s how I’d have answered them.\u00a0 While lots of questions pertained to the recent Gregg Williams “bounty” issues and whether or not the Redskins partook during his time here, the starting of spring training has got Nats fans pretty excited. As […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[184,259,164,504,618,37,100,135,137,369,253,385,765,114,146,768,112,39,767,452,43,703,177,766,171,505,301,136,119,36,38,142,125,128,147,621],"class_list":["post-3959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nonnatsbaseball","category-natsgeneral","tag-adam-laroche","tag-brian-bixler","tag-bryce-harper","tag-carlos-maldonado","tag-carlton-fisk","tag-chien-ming-wang","tag-cole-kimball","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-davey-johnson","tag-derek-norris","tag-edwin-jackson","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-gregg-williams","tag-ian-desmond","tag-ivan-rodriguez","tag-jason-varitek","tag-jesus-flores","tag-john-lannan","tag-johnny-bench","tag-jonathan-papelbon","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-jorge-posada","tag-laynce-nix","tag-lenny-dykstra","tag-mariano-rivera","tag-mark-derosa","tag-mark-zuckerman","tag-michael-morse","tag-roy-halladay","tag-ryan-zimmerman","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-steve-lombardozzi","tag-tom-boswell","tag-tyler-clippard","tag-wilson-ramos","tag-yogi-berra"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3959"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3959\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3969,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3959\/revisions\/3969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}