{"id":4285,"date":"2012-10-22T10:59:02","date_gmt":"2012-10-22T14:59:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4285"},"modified":"2014-11-13T08:47:42","modified_gmt":"2014-11-13T13:47:42","slug":"my-2012-end-of-season-award-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4285","title":{"rendered":"My 2012 End-of-Season award Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Mike Trout is a shoe-in for Rookie of the Year. Will he add AL MVP as well? Photo Gary Vasquez\/US Presswire via espn.com<\/p><\/div>\n

I’ve had a good string of predicting MLB’s major Post season awards in this space. \u00a0In 2010\u00a0I went\u00a08 for 8<\/a>.\u00a0 In 2011 I again went 8-8<\/a> in predicting MLB’s awards, though I missed on predicting the unofficial Sporting News Executive and Comeback Player of the year. \u00a0 I don’t have much confidence in going 8-for-8 this year though; the AL MVP seems way too close to predict, and I have no idea how the Cy Young awards will go.<\/p>\n

[Editor Note: I write this in phases over the course of the season, and finalized it in early October.\u00a0 After I wrote this piece some of the awards have already been announced; Sporting News announced Comeback Players of the Year<\/a> last week.\u00a0 I’ll put up another post talking about my guesses and which awards I got right and wrong in another article once all awards are announced in November.]<\/p>\n

Here’s a sampling of major baseball writers’ and their predictions that I could find ahead of my publishing this article: Tom Verducci<\/a><\/strong>, Ken Rosenthal<\/a><\/strong>, Bob Nightengale<\/a><\/strong>, Jonah Keri<\/strong><\/a>, and Jayson Stark<\/a><\/strong>. \u00a0Here’s the Fangraphs.com staff picks<\/a>, heavily statistically weighted as you’d expect. \u00a0As you will see, even the national writers are all over the road with their predictions. \u00a0Here’s HardballTalk’s Matthew Pouliot<\/a>‘s theoreticall ballot, with some contrarian picks. \u00a0Seamheads’ Andrew Martin<\/a> has the typical sabre-slanted ballot.<\/p>\n

Before reading on to my predictions on 2012’s winners, a statement to prevent arguments in the comments section. \u00a0These are my guesses as to who will WIN the awards, not necessarily who DESERVES them. \u00a0Invariably there’s a player who plays on a non-playoff or losing team but puts up fantastic numbers (Matt Kemp<\/strong> for the 2011 Dodgers, perhaps Mike Trout<\/strong> this year) who a number of loud pundits say “should” win the MVP. \u00a0Well, the fact of the matter is that the current voter base absolutely takes into account the circumstances behind a player’s production, and places more value on batters who are in a pennant race. \u00a0As do I. \u00a0The MVP isn’t the “Best Overall Batter Award,” which would end a lot of these arguments (since, the Cy Young essentially is exactly the “Best Overall Pitcher Award” and thus is easier to predict); its the “Most Valuable Player” award, and I agree with many who believe that a guy hitting .370 for a last place team isn’t nearly as “valuable” as the guy who hits .320 and leads a team deep into a playoff race. \u00a0It is what it is; if we want to change it perhaps the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA, whose awards these are) needs to add a category or clarify their requirements.<\/p>\n

Secondly, when considering the Cy Young, invariably there’s one pitcher who puts up comparable numbers to another, but one plays in a weaker division so the same Sabr-focused pundits make their holier-than-thou proclamations about how the voter base failed in their picks. \u00a0And their points are valid. \u00a0But this is a prediction piece, not an opinion piece, and the fact of the matter is that current voters are still mostly old-school and put value on things like “Wins” and “ERA,” stats that most Sabr-nerds think are useless in evaluating a pitcher.<\/p>\n

So keeping those two points in mind,\u00a0Here’s my predictions for 2012:<\/p>\n