{"id":4341,"date":"2012-08-07T13:47:47","date_gmt":"2012-08-07T17:47:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4341"},"modified":"2012-09-24T10:23:13","modified_gmt":"2012-09-24T14:23:13","slug":"more-and-more-im-liking-the-2nd-wild-card","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4341","title":{"rendered":"More and more I’m liking the 2nd Wild Card"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Will the Greinke acquisition get the Angels out of the WC game? Photo Jeff Golden\/Getty Images<\/p><\/div>\n

Baseball Purist Alert: this opinion piece may not entirely please you.<\/p>\n

I have to admit; as a life-long baseball fan I find myself constantly being at odds with myself over the “purity” of the game dating to its roots versus the natural progression of modern baseball as it adjusts to the current \u00a0sports climate. \u00a0Every change we’ve seen, from divisional play to wild cards to instant replay seems like an attack on the sanctity of the National Pasttime, and the sport which routinely traces its roots to stars from 70 years ago.<\/p>\n

The latest Collective Bargaining Agreement added a second Wild Card in each league, and a one-game playoff between the two wild-card teams to advance into the divisional series. \u00a0Some purists were aghast with the addition of yet another non-divisional champ to the post season party. \u00a0However, as we’ve seen this season play out the second wild-card inarguably has some side-effects that I think are good for the game. \u00a0Lets talk about these intended (or unintended) impacts:<\/p>\n

1. The additional Wild Card has kept more teams in the Playoff Race<\/strong>. \u00a0Here’s the standings as of 7\/31\/12<\/a> (a fantastic new feature I found at baseball-reference.com; you can pull standings as of any date in the history of the game). \u00a08 of the 16 teams in the NL and arguably 9 or 10 of the teams in the AL were technically still “in” the race for a playoff spot. \u00a0More teams in the playoff race means longer sustained fan interest and less tanking or selling off of assets.<\/p>\n

2. By virtue of #1, more teams were trying to improve at the Trade Deadline<\/strong>. \u00a0You can argue that more teams in the playoff hunt meant that fewer teams were sellers, and that lead to gridlock at the trade deadline. \u00a0But, some surprise selling teams (namely Miami and Philadelphia) injected new life to the trade deadline and had some teams making significant and crucial pickups.<\/p>\n

3. An additional Wild Card still leaves Baseball with the lowest percentage of its teams in Post Season Play<\/strong>. \u00a0Hey; at least we’re not the NBA, where more than half the teams make the playoffs. \u00a0It still means something to make the playoffs, which is important.<\/p>\n

4. The play-in game will be fantastic<\/strong>. \u00a0Nothing is as amazing as a one-game playoff to advance, and some of baseball’s most historic moments have come during these games. \u00a0Who would know who Bucky Dent<\/strong> was if not for his amazing home-run in the 1978 playoffs? \u00a0Both teams will be sending their Aces, both teams will be playing like its Game 7, and the neutral fan will be in heaven.<\/p>\n

5. The additional Wild Card will mean that teams will play harder, longer into the season<\/strong>. \u00a0Why do you think we’re seeing the massive trade-deadline arms race between Western divisional rivals in both leagues? \u00a0The Angels\/Rangers and the Dodgers\/Giants were by far the most active teams at the deadline because they all know that the difference this year between winning the division and the wild-card is significant. \u00a0In years past we’ve seen teams almost not care if they won the division or dropped to the wild card; you were guaranteed not to meet your divisional rival until the LCS and the home field advantage in baseball is so slight that sometimes you could argue that playing away in a short series is more advantageous.<\/p>\n

Why? \u00a0In a short series, its pretty easy to “steal” a game on the road and then hold serve and win 2 straight at home, knowing that the pressure is on the favorite and knowing that the under-dog can drop a game at home but still get a 5th\/deciding game on the road. \u00a0In a 7-game series the same rule of thumb applies; its really difficult to get a 3-game sweep, but its really easy to get a 2-game split. \u00a0Especially considering that the home-field advantage in baseball is only about 56% but has been as low as 52% in the past decade (see this link at Baseball-Reference.com<\/a>, which has the home-team winning percentage over the years).<\/p>\n

Now we see the immedicate impact; the Angels and Rangers absolutely do not want any part of a coin-flip game with the 2nd wild card for this reason. \u00a0Primarily because…<\/p>\n

6. The one-game play-in will significantly impact the advancing Wild Card Team<\/strong>. \u00a0You have to think that teams will send their Ace\/#1 starter to the hill in the play-in game. \u00a0Why possibly save him for a series that you may not get to? \u00a0As a result, the wild card winner advances to play either the #1 seed or the #2 seed (if the #1 team is in their same division) having already spent their big arm.<\/p>\n

Why do I see this as a good thing? \u00a0Because one major beef I’ve always had with Wild Cards is their relatively easy path to advance to the World Series. \u00a0Up until the last day of last season, the Cardinals were not even set to be a playoff team, and then they run to the World Series title. \u00a0We’ve already talked about the relatively small home field advantage baseball teams have. \u00a0Wild Card teams, more often than not, come into the playoffs “hotter” than the divisional champ that they then face. \u00a0This results in a significant number of Wild Card “upsets” in our history of divisional play and having Wild Cards advance far further than I’d normally like to see them, at the expense of divisional winners losing short series. \u00a0In the 17 years of divisional play<\/a>\/wild cards we’ve had:<\/p>\n