{"id":441,"date":"2010-12-05T21:18:32","date_gmt":"2010-12-06T02:18:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=441"},"modified":"2010-12-05T21:39:33","modified_gmt":"2010-12-06T02:39:33","slug":"jayson-werth-is-he-worth-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=441","title":{"rendered":"Jayson Werth; is he worth it?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

I'd be smoking a cigar too, if I was Jayson Werth tonight. Photo: fanshots.com<\/p><\/div>\n

I avoided the obvious pun in the title, but clearly the 7yr $126M dollar deal<\/a> we just signed with Jayson Werth <\/strong>is going to stir some serious blog “ink” over the next couple days.\u00a0 In fact, reading some quick twitter comments from the leading reporters at the winter meetings seem to indicate that this deal has completely “shaken up” the meetings, that other teams are stunned, that rival execs are “pissed” and that this could be a game changer contract in the league.<\/p>\n

The good:<\/p>\n

– Jayson Werth’s numbers <\/a>over the past few years are definitely strong.\u00a0 He finished up last year with a 145 OPS+ figure, putting him 5th <\/a>in the NL.<\/p>\n

– Despite having clearly better numbers in his walk year, he has been a rather consistent performer when looking at his WAR <\/a>figures over the past few years.\u00a0 5.1, 4.9 and 5.0 over the past three seasons.\u00a0 Consistent.<\/p>\n

– He plays RF, where we’re desperately in need of a slugger.\u00a0 He can also play center and left (though his UZR\/150<\/a> numbers for center are god-awful).\u00a0 His LF defensive value is quite good though.<\/p>\n

– Fangraphs.com <\/a>just posted analysis that essentially validates his salary as compared to the typical value of WAR on the FA market, and says that it isn’t really that bad of a contract.\u00a0 For now any way; we’ll see what happens as he ages and if\/when he tails off.<\/p>\n

The immediate bad:<\/p>\n

– 7 years guaranteed for a guy who just turned 31.\u00a0 $18M (average contract value) per year for a guy in his age 37 and 38 years.\u00a0 Scary.\u00a0 This contract immediately becomes more or less untradable.<\/p>\n

– We commit 7 years to a right fielder, when we have the best hitting prospect (and dedicated right fielder) in baseball in Bryce Harper<\/strong> slated to arrive mid-way through the contract.\u00a0 I’ll guess Werth moves to LF naturally.<\/p>\n

– Wouldn’t we have rather committed 56M on Adam Dunn<\/strong> instead of more than twice that for a lesser hitter?<\/p>\n

– Intangibles: we now have an $18M\/year player on the books, which is more than twice the Face of the Franchise’s 2011 number.\u00a0 Problematic in the club house?\u00a0 Or will the young leader recognize that his time to “get paid” is coming and that Werth’s contract is indicative of his body of work over the past few years?<\/p>\n

– We lose a draft pick; but because our 1st rounder is protected we’ll only lose our 2nd round pick.\u00a0 However, we picked up the White Sox’s pick in the Dunn deal so we still have essentially 3 first rounders in 2011’s deep draft.<\/p>\n

I’ll say this; the addition of Werth plus the eventual addition of a first baseman (Carlos Pena<\/strong> or possibly Adam LaRoche<\/strong>) greatly greatly improves this lineup.\u00a0 We’re now looking at something like this:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. (L) Morgan CF<\/li>\n
  2. (R) Desmond SS\/2b<\/li>\n
  3. (R) Zimmerman 3b<\/li>\n
  4. (L) Pena 1b<\/li>\n
  5. (R) Werth rf<\/li>\n
  6. (R) Willingham LF<\/li>\n
  7. (S) Espinosa 2nd\/ss<\/li>\n
  8. (R) Pudge C<\/li>\n
  9. pitcher<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    A little right-handed heavy right now.\u00a0 Another potential future move could be to trade Willingham for a starter and put lefty-hitting Bernadina in left.\u00a0 That’d be a nice balance of R-L-R-L in the heart of the order.\u00a0 This move immediately marginalizes both Bernadina and Morse though; perhaps we’ll see them moved as part of a deal to get someone like Matt Garza<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

    Conclusion: The Nationals have proven several times in the past two offseasons that they need to overpay to get FAs to come here.\u00a0 We offered Teixeira<\/strong> more money than New York, and reportedly we offered De La Rosa<\/strong> more money than he took to return to Colorado.\u00a0 I think this is the Nationals essentially “buying” their way into the discussions for free agents, now and in the future.\u00a0 It’s definitely a hitter we needed, and hopefully by the time his contract reaches albatross level it won’t matter because we’ll be winning and he’ll be a part of it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    I avoided the obvious pun in the title, but clearly the 7yr $126M dollar deal we just signed with Jayson Werth is going to stir some serious blog “ink” over the next couple days.\u00a0 In fact, reading some quick twitter comments from the leading reporters at the winter meetings seem to indicate that this deal […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=441"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":446,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441\/revisions\/446"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}