{"id":4462,"date":"2012-09-10T17:34:33","date_gmt":"2012-09-10T21:34:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4462"},"modified":"2012-09-11T10:20:08","modified_gmt":"2012-09-11T14:20:08","slug":"syracuseaaa-pitching-staff-year-in-review-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4462","title":{"rendered":"Syracuse\/AAA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<dl id=\"attachment_2360\">\n<dt>\n<div id=\"attachment_4466\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/LannanJohn2011_.-Luis-M.-Alvarez-AP-www.timesunion.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4466\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-4466\" title=\"LannanJohn2011_. (Luis M. Alvarez  AP) www.timesunion.com\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/LannanJohn2011_.-Luis-M.-Alvarez-AP-www.timesunion.com_-300x178.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"178\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/LannanJohn2011_.-Luis-M.-Alvarez-AP-www.timesunion.com_-300x178.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/LannanJohn2011_.-Luis-M.-Alvarez-AP-www.timesunion.com_.jpg 628w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4466\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Free John Lannan!  Photo Luis M. Alvarez\/AP<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2356\">Click here for the 2011 version<\/a> of this post.<\/p>\n<\/dt>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<p>This is the first of 6 organizational reviews of the pitching staffs of our various affiliates for the 2012 season.\u00a0 Unlike in 2011, I didn&#8217;t follow nearly as closely as I would have liked, so a lot of this is &#8220;analysis in arrears.&#8221;\u00a0 This is also a lot of &#8220;scouting the scoreline,&#8221; which isn&#8217;t always a fair way to evaluate pitchers, but a full year&#8217;s worth of work is also a big enough sample size to pass some judgement.\u00a0 I&#8217;ll try to evaluate pitchers at the level at which they spent the most time and will offer guesses for next season.\u00a0 Also, rehab appearances are not mentioned or given analysis in these posts.\u00a0 After reviewing all the staffs at each level, I&#8217;ll cull the above   predictions into a summarized 2013 projected staff throughout the   system.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Syracuse starters<\/strong><\/em>.\u00a0 The rotation started the season  with Atkins, Roark, Maya, Lannan and Duke.\u00a0 This wasn&#8217;t exactly the way these guys would have lined up 1-5 (since Lannan was dumped to the AAA roster at the end of Spring Training unexpectedly) but this is the order in which they appeared to start the season.\u00a0 Lets talk about these 5 guys plus other prominent starters for the year.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Mitch Atkins<\/strong><\/span>: Syracuse&#8217;s opening day starter stuck in the rotation for most of the year, posting a 5.28 ERA while going <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=t552&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=444444\">6-9<\/a> in 20 starts.\u00a0 He improved on his season numbers with a handful of relief appearances down the stretch, finishing the year with a combined ERA of 4.87 in 118 1\/3 innings pitched.\u00a0 This minor league Free Agent pickup from Baltimore&#8217;s organization never gave the team a reason to consider calling him up, and probably is out the door in the off-season. \u00a0<em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Minor League Free Agent again, likely with another team.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Tanner Roark<\/strong><\/span>: He posted an ugly W\/L of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=t552&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=543699\">6-17<\/a> on the year in 28 games (26 starts).\u00a0 He had a 4.39 ERA with a 1.41 whip in 147 2\/3 innings on the year.\u00a0 He had pretty good K\/9 numbers (130 Ks in those 147 innings) but also walked a goodly number of guys (47).\u00a0 He mostly got promoted after a similar season statistically in AA by virtue of the AAA depth being shredded by the <strong>Gio Gonzalez<\/strong> trade.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: He&#8217;s Rule-5 eligible but not yet a 6-year free agent.\u00a0 I guess its possible he gets picked up, but he&#8217;s not worth protecting.\u00a0 I think he gets one more season starting in AAA before reaching minor league free agency.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Yunesky Maya<\/strong><\/span>: After getting several shots at the major league level in 2011, Maya was buried in AAA for 2012.\u00a0 There he toiled a complete season as a starter, posting an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=t552&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=493337\">11-10<\/a> record in 28 starts.\u00a0 His era and whip were respectable (3.88 and 1.19 respectively), but his softer-tossing ways did not lead to the kind of swing and miss stuff craved by the current regime (just 89 Ks in 167 innings despite his ability to throw everything but the kitchen sink).\u00a0 He improved upon a rough early start to the season with a series of gems in August &#8230; but would routinely follow up a gem with a stinker.\u00a0 The big club has learned its lesson and left him off the expanded roster.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Maya has just one more year on his <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dFd1a3ktaTZFLUZDZm5oUzhLa3BoM3c&amp;output=html\">4yr\/$8m contract<\/a>, after which he&#8217;ll be cut loose to try his wares elsewhere.\u00a0 But he&#8217;ll be back toiling as AAA&#8217;s #1 starter in 2013.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>John Lannan<\/strong><\/span>, as most Nats fans know, was the surprise cut from 2012&#8217;s major league team and basically served as injury insurance the entire year.\u00a0 He did not necessarily help his own cause in AAA, putting up mediocre lines of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=t552&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=458709\">9-11<\/a>, 4.30 era, 1.44 whip and barely 5 k\/9 despite a MLB-average pedigree.\u00a0 He did however perform excellently in two spot starts in the majors, setting himself up to be the <strong>Stephen Strasburg<\/strong> replacement in September&#8217;s stretch run.\u00a0 I&#8217;d cough up his poor performance to\u00a0 a season-long disappointment over his predicament; he&#8217;s got to be the highest paid guy in the minors (now that <strong>Kei Igawa<\/strong>&#8216;s contract expired).\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Lannan is just about a 100% guarantee to be non-tendered at the arbitration deadline and certainly looks to sign on with another club.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Zach Duke<\/strong><\/span>: Unlike Lannan, Duke took advantage of his time in AAA and DID regain some value; he posted a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=t552&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=435043\">15-5<\/a> record in 26 starts and 164 innings.\u00a0 The rangy left-hander was cut loose by Arizona after the 2011 season and did enough with Syracuse this year to earn a September call-up.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Likely a free agent again and likely to use 2012&#8217;s performance as a springboard with another team looking for starter help.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Jeff Mandel<\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">, a long time Nats farm hand, started the year in AA to provide some starter depth before coming back to AAA and eventually replacing Atkins in the rotation.\u00a0 He was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=t552&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=453247\">6-3<\/a> with a 2.41 ERA in 11 Syracuse starts<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> and filled in effectively down the stretch. <\/span><\/span><em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">He&#8217;s finishing up his 6th minor league season and didn&#8217;t get a 40-man call-up (at least not yet).\u00a0 He has one more year of team control before hitting minor league free agency.\u00a0 AAA rotation.<\/span><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li>Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab):\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Erik Arneson<\/strong><\/span>, who continues his 2011 role of organizational swiss army knife, filling in with innings wherever possible.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>probably continues to be the Nats org guy; he&#8217;s still effective in AAA.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Austin Bibens-Dirkx<\/strong><\/span>, who got a couple spot starts before getting released and eventually getting picked up by Colorado Springs (AAA affiliate of Colorado) to finish out the season.\u00a0\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>with another organization.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Kevin Pucetas<\/strong> <\/span>got called up from AA to make one spot-start.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>See the AA wrap up for more details.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Syracuse Relievers<\/strong><\/em>: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Christian Garcia<\/strong> <\/span>has turned into one of the Organization&#8217;s great stories of 2012, posting a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=t552&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=451600\">0.86 ERA<\/a> in 52 1\/3 innings between AA and AAA after being claimed off waivers from the Yankees in late 2011.\u00a0 This performance earned him a well-deserved call-up to the big club as rosters expanded.\u00a0 Additionally, he&#8217;ll be featured in the Arizona Fall League as one of our three pitcher representatives.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>He&#8217;s got a big arm, can bring it 97-98, and should be in the mix to be a middle-relief arm for the Nats bullpen in 2013. \u00a0He likely replaces what the team sought in <strong>Brad Lidge<\/strong> and provides insurance against injury (or, in <strong>Cole Kimball<\/strong>&#8216;s case, failure to recover from injury).<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Atahualpa Severino<\/strong> <\/span>put in a decent season for Syracuse (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=t552&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=463037\">2.81 ERA in 48 ip<\/a>), but clearly he lost favor with the team.\u00a0 Instead of considering Severino (who was on the 40-man at the time), the Nats picked up <strong>Mike Gonzalez<\/strong> off waivers and promoted him up to the big club.\u00a0 Furthermore, Severino was DFA&#8217;d off the 40-man and passed through waivers without being claimed, never a good sign for a long-serving minor leaguer.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>Minor League Free Agent, though the fact that nobody claimed him when he got DFA&#8217;d means he&#8217;s likely an Org guy from here on out.\u00a0 But, LOOGYs live forever, and he can bring it, so maybe he gets a shot elsewhere.\u00a0 He&#8217;s clearly been passed over in this organization.<\/li>\n<li>GWU grad <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Josh Wilkie<\/strong> <\/span>was having a so-so start to his Syracuse season (his 4th year in the league) before getting <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/nationals-journal\/post\/nationals-minor-leaguer-josh-wilkie-suspended-josh-johnson-rafael-martin-disciplined\/2012\/06\/02\/gJQAhYnV9U_blog.html\">suspended 50-games<\/a> in June.\u00a0 [Editor Note: thanks to Mark L. for pointing this out].\u00a0 Wilkie was summarily released after his suspension ended.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>with another organization.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Ryan Perry<\/strong> <\/span>failed to make the big club out of spring, pitched briefly in Syracuse&#8217; bullpen before getting sent to Harrisburg to re-make himself as a starter.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>see the AA version of this post.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Mike MacDougal<\/strong> <\/span>made his &#8220;triumphant return&#8221; to the organization after washing out of Chicago&#8217;s AAA affiliate in Iowa.\u00a0 He struck out 14 and walked 8 in 10 innings for Syracuse (about what I expected); no word on how many WP he threw.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>minor league free agent again.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Erik Davis<\/strong> <\/span>got 8 late season appearances after toiling mostly in AA and earning a promotion.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>see the AA version of this post.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Other Relievers who appeared in AAA of note<\/strong> (not including Rehabbing MLBers): <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em> for all of these guys seems the same: either continued &#8220;org guy&#8221; middle reliever or minor league free agent in another organization.\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Hassan Pena<\/strong> <\/span>improved on his 2011 stint in AAA but still looks like a middle-of-the-road minor league reliever.\u00a0 He was suspended at the end of the season for suspected &#8220;team rules violations,&#8221; a question mark for him going forward with the organization.<\/li>\n<li>GWU grad <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Pat Lehman<\/strong> <\/span>continued his march up the organization, earning a quick promotion up to AAA and posting respectable numbers there.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Corey VanAllen<\/strong> <\/span>got demoted and then hurt.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Rafael Martin<\/strong> <\/span>also got demoted after a crummy start.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2012 Minor League free agent signings <\/span><strong>Jeff Fulchino<\/strong> <\/span>and <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Waldis Joaquin<\/strong> <\/span>didn&#8217;t throw a single inning in 2012, spending it entirely on the 7-day DL.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Syracuse should have had a better record than it ended up with (70-74) given the quality of the starters on this team (a long time MLB starter in Duke, a career sub 4.00 ERA starter in Lannan and a guy on an $8M contract in Maya).\u00a0 But at the same time, a combination of trades and a &#8220;gap&#8221; in organizational development led the team to have to fill a significant portion of this staff with minor league free agents, so it may have been inevitable that the team would have struggled.<\/p>\n<div id=\"_mcePaste\" style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 1155px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>S<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Click here for the 2011 version of this post. This is the first of 6 organizational reviews of the pitching staffs of our various affiliates for the 2012 season.\u00a0 Unlike in 2011, I didn&#8217;t follow nearly as closely as I would have liked, so a lot of this is &#8220;analysis in arrears.&#8221;\u00a0 This is also [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[141,902,298,103,100,84,75,61,83,671,89,39,102,903,904,756,63,69,543,77,905,883,906],"class_list":["post-4462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-minorspitching","tag-atahualpa-severino","tag-austin-bibens-dirkx","tag-brad-lidge","tag-christian-garcia","tag-cole-kimball","tag-corey-vanallen","tag-erik-arneson","tag-erik-davis","tag-hassan-pena","tag-jeff-fulchino","tag-jeff-mandel","tag-john-lannan","tag-josh-wilkie","tag-kevin-pucetas","tag-mike-macdougal","tag-mitch-atkins","tag-pat-lehman","tag-rafael-martin","tag-ryan-perry","tag-tanner-roark","tag-waldis-joaquin","tag-yunesky-maya","tag-zach-duke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4462"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4462\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4498,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4462\/revisions\/4498"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}