{"id":4472,"date":"2012-11-06T09:16:32","date_gmt":"2012-11-06T14:16:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4472"},"modified":"2013-10-06T10:35:03","modified_gmt":"2013-10-06T14:35:03","slug":"2013-projected-pitching-staffs-and-rotations-entire-nats-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4472","title":{"rendered":"2013 Projected Pitching Staffs and Rotations; entire Nats system"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>After finishing the evaluation of all 6 minor league pitching staffs, plus finally finishing (and posting yesterday) the MLB season review, \u00a0here&#8217;s an  entirely too-early projection of what the staffs and rotations may look  like in 2013. \u00a0This post assumes for the time being that all major and  minor league FAs will opt out and we&#8217;ll be looking to fill spots.\u00a0 In  these cases I&#8217;ll mark FAs to be as needed, though we very well may  acquire these players in trade.<\/p>\n<p>Note: some of these projections are slightly different from the original reviews posted in the per-level links, to account for moves, performances and roster moves that have already happened or seem set to happen this off-season. \u00a0I&#8217;ve also made some slight adjustments in order to make the rotations and bullpens work at each level.<\/p>\n<p>(notations: FA = free agent, MLFA == Minor League Free Agent)<\/p>\n<p>Staff Review links: MLB<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4872\"> is here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4462\">AAA is here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4470\">AA is here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4490\">High-A is here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4522\">Low-A is here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4551\">Short-A is here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4564\">GCL is here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>MLB Rotation: <strong>Strasburg<\/strong>, <strong>Gonzalez<\/strong>, <strong>Zimmermann<\/strong>, <strong>Detwiler<\/strong>, FA or other acquisition<\/li>\n<li>MLB Bullpen: <strong>Clippard, Storen, Mattheus, Stammen, Garcia, <\/strong>a FA left-hander (possibly <strong>Burnett<\/strong>),\u00a0a FA long-man (possibly <strong>Gorzelanny<\/strong>).<\/li>\n<li>MLB notables Out of Organization: <strong>Jackson<\/strong>, <strong>Burnett<\/strong>, <strong>Gonzalez<\/strong>, <strong>Lannan<\/strong>, <strong>Wang<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>MLB Narrative: 4\/5ths of the rotation are no-brainers. \u00a0The 5th starter is the question mark for 2013. \u00a0Do we re-sign  Jackson and pay him more as a 5th starter than our big 3 guys? \u00a0It doesn&#8217;t seem so after the team declined to give him a Qualifying Offer. \u00a0Do we  trade from depth (RH relief, middle infield) and find a 5th starter that  way? \u00a0Do we <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4739\">find a 5th starter from within<\/a>? \u00a0Meanwhile the bullpen is now full of hard throwing righties, but we could  lose all 3 of our lefties.\u00a0 We may need to work the phones to retain  these guys, or else we&#8217;re on the FA market. \u00a0I think (despite my discussion about converting Garcia to a 5th starter) that he&#8217;ll remain in the bullpen and may bump <strong>Henry Rodriguez<\/strong> out of a job. \u00a0One of our two closer-quality guys (Clippard and Storen) could be moved, cashing in on their value, which could open up a spot for a FA acquisition or a promotion from AAA.<\/p>\n<p>Lots to be decided this off-season for <strong>Mike Rizzo<\/strong>, and this hasn&#8217;t even mentioned the dominos that will fall if\/when the team makes a contract decision on <strong>Adam LaRoche<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AAA Rotation: <strong>Roark, Maya, Broderick, <\/strong><strong><strong>Meyers<\/strong><\/strong><strong>, Perry<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>AAA Bullpen: <strong>Tatusko <\/strong>(swingman), <strong>Arneson <\/strong>(swingman), <strong>Severino <\/strong> (loogy), <strong>Davis<\/strong>, <strong>Lehman<\/strong>, <strong>Nelo <\/strong>(closer), <strong>Martin<\/strong>, \u00a0<strong>Mandel<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>AAA Narrative: We have a lot of long-serving minor leaguers here; as  it stands now only a few of them are even 40-man roster guys (Maya,  Perry, Garcia).\u00a0 The modern AAA roster construction is one of &#8220;spare  parts&#8221; and prospects; do we have enough prospects to cover for injuries  at the MLB level?\u00a0 Which one of these AAA starters would Nats fans feel  comfortable filling in were one of our starters to go down with injury?\u00a0 Perhaps the Nats need to work on some starter depth via trade. \u00a0<strong>Brad Meyers<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/nationalsprospects.com\/2012\/10\/rule-5-pick-brad-meyers-returned\/\">was just returned<\/a> from the Yankees after a season-long DL stint after being Rule-5 drafted,\u00a0and seems likely to slot right back into the AAA rotation when he&#8217;s healthy. \u00a0Perry seems set to get a 4th option and should slot in here, looking to convert back to being a starter. \u00a0Broderick is a former Rule-5 pick and was claimed from St. Louis, who dumped him late last season. \u00a0I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s anything more than a 4-A starter, but the organization seems to like him.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AA Rotation: <strong>Rosenbaum, Holder, Gilliam, Karns, Grace, Demny<\/strong> (swingman?) or MLFA? \u00a0<strong>Solis <\/strong>if he&#8217;s healthy?<\/li>\n<li>AA Bullpen: <strong>Frias, McCoy, Selik<\/strong> (maybe high-A again), <strong>Holland <\/strong>(setup), <strong>Wort <\/strong>(closer),  <strong>VanAllen <\/strong>(loogy), <strong>Demmin <\/strong>(maybe high-A again), an org arm or two to fill  in.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>AA narrative: We have a couple of interesting candidates in the AA rotation to start, but what may be more interesting is to see whether the likes of Gilliam and Demny hold onto their spots with the talent ready to rise up out of high-A.\u00a0 Meanwhile, the bullpen has some interesting arms to keep an eye on. \u00a0I forgot to mention Solis in the AA write-up but remembered him here. \u00a0Two big questions for me in this AA rotation for 2013: 1) is Rosenbaum for real or is he going to sputter out before reaching MLB potential? \u00a0 And, 2) Is Nathan Karns ready to make the leap? \u00a0I think Karns can quickly put his name in the mix to get promoted to AAA based on his performance in 2012.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>High-A Rotation: <strong>Swynenberg<\/strong>, <strong>Ray, Meyer<\/strong> (maybe AA?), <strong>Schwartz <\/strong>(maybe low-A), <strong>Rauh<\/strong> (maybe low-A)<\/li>\n<li>High-A Bullpen Competition: <strong>Barrett <\/strong>(maybe AA) , <strong>Testa, Smoker<\/strong> (loogy),  <strong>Hill, Meza<\/strong> (perhaps a starter?), <strong>Holt, Hawkins, Bates, Mirowski<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>High-A bullpen Release candidates: <strong>Olbrychowski, McCatty, Applebee<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>High-A narrative: there&#8217;s too many arms for too few slots right now in all three of the A-levels.\u00a0\u00a0 There&#8217;s a ton of release candidates, and some guys who could be higher or lower.\u00a0\u00a0 I&#8217;d love to be a fly on the wall at the organizational meetings where all this evaluation is done. \u00a0Meyer dominated High-A last year; could he start in AA? \u00a0 Barrett (by virtue of his AFL appearance) may also be AA material.<\/p>\n<p>The same goes for the Low-A team below: I&#8217;ve got 5 logical rotation candidates, another 4 guys who make sense to be in the low-A rotation, and a slew of guys who seem to have earned their way to the low-A bullpen.\u00a0 But there&#8217;s only 7 slots to go around.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Low-A Rotation: <strong>Turnbull, Jordan, Purke<\/strong> (if healthy), <strong>Monar, Mooneyham<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Low-A Rotation Competitors: <strong>Hansen<\/strong>, <strong>Lee <\/strong>(loogy if not), <strong>Encarnation<\/strong>, <strong>McGeary <\/strong>(if finally healthy)<\/li>\n<li>Low-A Bullpen Competition: <strong>Anderson, Estevez, Dupra, McKenzie, Henke, Davis, Boyden, Benincasa, Hudgins, Dicherry, Mudron<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We acknowledge the folly of trying to predict short-season staffs  which will mostly be populated with 2013 draftees, especially under the  new CBA that shortens negotiation times, making it more likely college  seniors are drafted (who sign quickly with zero leverage) and get  playing.\u00a0 That being said, there will definitely be guys who stay in  extended spring training for a couple months and then get placed on  these rosters along with new draftees.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s some guesses based on  2012 performances; all blank spots filled by 2013 draftees or by some of the guys who drop down from low-A.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Short-A Rotation: <strong>Baez, Pineyro<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Short-A Bullpen: <strong>Smith <\/strong>(if not released), <strong>Fischer, Medina, Pena, Mendez<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>GCL blank spots filled by younger 2013 draftees (HS, Juco and college juniors\/seniors from smaller schools) and by rising DSL grads.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>GCL Rotation: <strong>Mieses <\/strong>(if not released), <strong>Barrientos, Vasquez<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>GCL Bullpen: <strong>Heredes<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After finishing the evaluation of all 6 minor league pitching staffs, plus finally finishing (and posting yesterday) the MLB season review, \u00a0here&#8217;s an entirely too-early projection of what the staffs and rotations may look like in 2013. \u00a0This post assumes for the time being that all major and minor league FAs will opt out and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4,2039],"tags":[916,204,184,59,262,141,926,201,922,23,72,856,232,195,921,20,103,194,22,937,192,84,98,851,949,934,923,52,253,75,61,943,385,203,925,64,181,953,935,206,924,89,66,948,43,65,954,951,56,26,323,166,939,955,129,196,29,933,63,85,27,57,190,69,941,67,18,940,672,942,51,25,86,543,73,19,28,202,38,77,197,24,932,55,128,936,918,883],"class_list":["post-4472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-minorspitching","category-rule-5","tag-aaron-barrett","tag-adalberto-mieses","tag-adam-laroche","tag-adam-olbrychowski","tag-alex-meyer","tag-atahualpa-severino","tag-ben-hawkins","tag-blake-monar","tag-blake-schwarz","tag-bobby-hansen","tag-brad-meyers","tag-brett-mooneyham","tag-brian-broderick","tag-brian-dupra","tag-brian-rauh","tag-cameron-selik","tag-christian-garcia","tag-christian-meza","tag-christopher-mckenzie","tag-cody-davis","tag-colin-bates","tag-corey-vanallen","tag-craig-stammen","tag-danny-rosenbaum","tag-daury-vasquez","tag-david-fischer","tag-dixon-anderson","tag-drew-storen","tag-edwin-jackson","tag-erik-arneson","tag-erik-davis","tag-gilberto-mendez","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-gregory-baez","tag-gregory-holt","tag-hector-nelo","tag-henry-rodriguez","tag-inocencio-heredes","tag-ivan-pineyro","tag-jack-mcgeary","tag-jason-smith","tag-jeff-mandel","tag-joe-testa","tag-joel-barrientos","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-josh-smoker","tag-kevin-dicherry","tag-kylin-turnbull","tag-marcos-frias","tag-matt-swyndenberg","tag-matthew-grace","tag-matthew-purke","tag-michael-boyden","tag-mike-mudron","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-nathan-karns","tag-neil-holland","tag-nicholas-lee","tag-pat-lehman","tag-pat-mccoy","tag-paul-applebee","tag-paul-demny","tag-pedro-encarnation","tag-rafael-martin","tag-richie-mirowski","tag-rob-wort","tag-robbie-ray","tag-robert-benincasa","tag-robert-gilliam","tag-ronald-pena","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-ryan-demmin","tag-ryan-mattheus","tag-ryan-perry","tag-ryan-tatusko","tag-sammy-solis","tag-shane-mccatty","tag-silvio-medina","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-tanner-roark","tag-taylor-hill","tag-taylor-jordan","tag-travis-henke","tag-trevor-holder","tag-tyler-clippard","tag-wil-hudgins","tag-wirkin-estevez","tag-yunesky-maya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4472","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4472"}],"version-history":[{"count":29,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4472\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7841,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4472\/revisions\/7841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}