{"id":4522,"date":"2012-09-17T10:06:33","date_gmt":"2012-09-17T14:06:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4522"},"modified":"2013-08-29T13:49:42","modified_gmt":"2013-08-29T17:49:42","slug":"hagerstownlow-a-pitching-staff-year-in-review-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4522","title":{"rendered":"Hagerstown\/Low-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<dl id=\"attachment_2360\">\n<dt>\n<div id=\"attachment_4546\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/BarrettAaron-Auburn2011-unk-via-thephilosophersstone2011.blogspot.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4546\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-4546\" title=\"BarrettAaron Auburn2011 unk via thephilosophersstone2011.blogspot.com\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/BarrettAaron-Auburn2011-unk-via-thephilosophersstone2011.blogspot.com_-300x225.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/BarrettAaron-Auburn2011-unk-via-thephilosophersstone2011.blogspot.com_-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/BarrettAaron-Auburn2011-unk-via-thephilosophersstone2011.blogspot.com_-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/BarrettAaron-Auburn2011-unk-via-thephilosophersstone2011.blogspot.com_.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4546\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Closer Aaron Barrett was one of the best stories of the year for Hagerstown&#8217;s pitching staff. Photo unknown via thephilosophersstone2011.blogspot.com<\/p><\/div>\n<\/dt>\n<dt><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=2429\">Click here for the 2011 version of this post<\/a>, for a look at how things were last year.<\/dt>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the Low-A version of the 2012 season pitching staff review.\u00a0 I&#8217;m going down the line from top to bottom; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4462\">AAA is here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4470\">AA is here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4490\">High-A is here<\/a>. As with the other reviews, we&#8217;ll look at the main rotation, the substitute and spot starters, then focus on key relievers.\u00a0 Rehab appearances are generally not mentioned.\u00a0 The lower you get in the minors, the harder it is to really pass judgement on a player&#8217;s real capabilities or career outlook, so take some of these evaluations with a grain of salt.<\/p>\n<p>The rotations in the lower minor leagues are also not nearly as clean as in the upper-levels.\u00a0 Lots of times the &#8220;starter&#8221; is slated to go as many innings as the &#8220;reliever,&#8221; a way to get two starter candidates longer stretches of innings.\u00a0 We&#8217;ll try to take that into consideration as we move forward.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Hagerstown starters<\/strong><\/em>.\u00a0 The rotation started the season with Estevez, Dupra\/Karns, Meyer, Turnbull\/Hill, and McKenzie. \u00a0 No less than 18 different guys started a game for Hagerstown this year (two of them on rehab assignments).\u00a0 Lets see how the original rotation and other primary starters fared.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Wirkin Estevez<\/strong> <\/span>was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=594135\">5-2 with a 5.76 ERA<\/a> in 12 low-A starts in the early and later parts of the season; he missed two full months with an unspecified injury.\u00a0 He was no better after returning than before.\u00a0 He was frequently victimized by the long ball, giving up 6 in 60 innings. \u00a0\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: he&#8217;s young (turned 20 in March, if you trust D.R. birthdays) and he was effective last year in short-A.\u00a0 He returns to low-A, but is dumped to the bullpen in the face of a glut of competition for rotation spots.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Brian Dupra<\/strong> <\/span>got absolutely lit up in 11 appearances (8 starts) in April and May before suffering a season-ending injury 5\/31.\u00a0 Line on the season: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=518637\">3-4 with a 7.17 era<\/a> in 37 2\/3 innings.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: bullpen arm in Low-A.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Nathan Karns<\/strong> <\/span>threw 44 outstanding innings in low-A before he was deservedly promoted to Potomac.\u00a0 We discussed him at length there. \u00a0<em><strong>Outlook for next season: <\/strong><\/em>(from high-A post): AA rotation.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Alex Meyer<\/strong> <\/span>was 7-4 in 18 starts for Hagerstown before getting promoted to Potomac.\u00a0 We discussed him at length there. <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: (from High-A post): High-A rotation again with an eye towards quick promotion to AA.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Kylin Turnbull <\/strong><\/span>got his first pro innings in 2012, being a relatively high draft pick (4th rounder) in 2011.\u00a0 The 21-yr old lefty gave Hagerstown 89 mediocre innings, going 4-5 with a 5.16 ERA.\u00a0 Not bad for a first full season.\u00a0 He gave up a lot of hits though, and his whip was 1.51.\u00a0 That&#8217;s lots of base-runners turning into lots of runs.\u00a0 He was sent down mid-season to the rookie league to work on &#8220;mechanics,&#8221; returning the last day of the season (for some reason) to put in one relief appearance. <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Repeating low-A (in the rotation) looking for improvement.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Taylor Hill<\/strong> <\/span>was the Hagerstown workhorse, leading the staff in innings pitched with 124.\u00a0 He went <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=592398\">10-6 with a 4.92 era<\/a> on the year.\u00a0\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season:<\/strong><\/em> I worry for the 2011 6th round college senior; unless he can be a bit more dominant on the mound, he&#8217;s not long for pro baseball.\u00a0 He is relatively young for a college grad; he&#8217;ll be entering his 3rd pro season and turning 24 in March.\u00a0 I&#8217;d guess he&#8217;ll get moved to the high-A bullpen in 2013 as a nod to his age\/experience.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Chris McKenzie<\/strong> <\/span>had his third straight rough year in the starting rotation, failing to improve on last year&#8217;s low-a showing.\u00a0 Final stats: 2-3 with an ugly <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=571936\">8.64 ERA in 26 appearances and 8 starts<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season:<\/strong><\/em> the organization can&#8217;t give him a rotation spot again can they?\u00a0 Low-A bullpen.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Bobby Hanson<\/strong> <\/span>fared little better in low-A than he did in high-A, getting demoted mid-season.\u00a0 After <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=543273\">11 starts and a 4.55 ERA<\/a> he hit the DL, where he&#8217;s stayed the rest of the season.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: As pointed out in the High-A post, he&#8217;s young but he&#8217;s entering his 6th pro season and has yet to really master low-A.\u00a0 He&#8217;s a big lefty though (6&#8217;6&#8243;, 235lbs) so the team probably salivates at his potential.\u00a0 He&#8217;s just not as dominant as he needs to be.\u00a0 I&#8217;d guess he&#8217;s getting another shot at the low-A rotation in 2013.\u00a0 But it may be his last shot.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Taylor Jordan <\/strong><\/span>was a favorite of mine after his stellar 2011 season in low-A.\u00a0 Unfortunately he had to get Tommy John Surgery (done in mid September 2011), so 2012 is a come-back\/rehab year.\u00a0 He seemed to be back really, really early though; he got his first 2012 start 9 months after surgery.\u00a0 On the year: 3-7 with a 5.13 ERA in 15 starts and 54 1\/3 innings.\u00a0 You can&#8217;t beat that for a rehab year.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: leading the low-A rotation with an eye towards a quick high-A promotion in 2013.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Brian Rauh<\/strong><\/span>, the first 2012 draft pick mentioned in this series (and as it turned out one of only two 2012 draft picks to make it as high as low-A).\u00a0 Rauh got 8 starts with Hagerstown in August after getting a quick bump up from short-A.\u00a0 Results were ok: he was 3-3 with a 4.89 ERA in 8 games as a starter.\u00a0 He only really had one bad start (his last) and would have had better season stats otherwise.\u00a0 His K\/9 rates were good and he may be an excellent find in the draft (he was an amazing 30-1 during his college career at Division III Chapman; check out his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=621388\">mini bio at milb.com<\/a>).\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: low-A rotation.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Blake Schwartz<\/strong><\/span>, The 2nd, and last 2012 draftee pitcher to make it to Low-A this year was pretty good upon promotion to Hagerstown, going <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=621232\">1-1 with a 3.05 ERA<\/a> in 7 late season starts.\u00a0 The Nats have had some great luck with small-college pitchers (see <strong>Jordan Zimmermann <\/strong>and <strong>Ross Detwiler<\/strong>) and hope to continue with the likes of Rauh and Schwartz (from Oklahoma City University, an NAIA school).\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: high-A rotation, based on his status as a college senior grad.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Matthew Purke<\/strong><\/span>, as most Nats fans know, had three wild appearances in May before getting shut down on the season with continuing shoulder issues.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: get healthy, try low-A rotation again.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Dixon Anderson<\/strong><\/span>, coming back from an injury that cost him all of 2011, looked good in a too-small-of-a-sample size of innings (26 between GCL and low-A).\u00a0\u00a0 He&#8217;s a big right-hander with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=592109\">good k\/9 rates<\/a> who was a little wild in low-A.\u00a0 I wonder if he features more as an eventual reliever.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: competing for low-A rotation, dropping to bullpen.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab):\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Christian Meza<\/strong> <\/span>had 36 appearances, 3 spot starts and a good <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=594926\">2.97 era in 88 low-A<\/a> innings on the year.\u00a0\u00a0 A tall lefty with excellent K\/9 rates, he excelled in 3 spot starts but remained mostly a middle-to-late innings reliever.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: I&#8217;d try to feature him as a starter honestly, but i&#8217;d guess he ends up in the high-A bullpen.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Pedro Encarnation <\/strong><\/span>got a few innings in low-A after moving up from Short-A.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: see short-A write-up.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Jason Smith <\/strong><\/span>got a call-up\/spot start mid-season and got shelled.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: see short-A write-up.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Hagerstown Relievers<\/strong><\/em>: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season.\u00a0 These are done in order by IP for any reliever who didn&#8217;t get at least one start.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Gregory Holt <\/strong><\/span>gave the Suns 78 workman-like innings in 41 games, finishing the year with an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=605281\">era of 4.12<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Unfortunately it seems that result was rather lucky; his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/statss.aspx?playerid=sa546954&amp;position=P\">FIP was 5.18<\/a>, a full point higher.\u00a0\u00a0 He&#8217;ll have to improve to stay in the organization.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: high-A bullpen.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Ben Hawkins <\/strong><\/span>continues to be a late-round steal (he was a <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdGhVRjRfNW81SG8xRlROQ1ZxZzNfbUE&amp;hl=en#gid=0\">36th round draft pick in 2011<\/a> out of baseball juggernaut West Florida) for the team, putting up a 3.55 ERA in 58 1\/3 innings over 30 appearances, giving the team nearly a k\/inning as a lefty.\u00a0\u00a0 He continues on a great 2011 as well.\u00a0 He&#8217;s more than just a loogy, routinely putting in 2-3 innings per outing.\u00a0\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: high-A bullpen.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Colin Bates <\/strong><\/span>closed a few games, was effective for most of the season (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=572706\">2.79 era in 51 2\/3 relief innings<\/a>) and has given the organization no reason not to move him up the chain.\u00a0 He&#8217;s a little under-sized (6&#8217;1&#8243;, 175lb) and that may have him flying\u00a0 under the radar as a prospect.\u00a0\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: high-A bullpen.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Aaron Barrett<\/strong> <\/span>got promoted to high-A after tearing through Low-A with 52 Ks in 34 innings.\u00a0\u00a0 See the high-A write-up for more. <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: (as copied from high-A writeup) AA bullpen.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Richie Mirowski <\/strong><\/span>is another feather in the southwestern Nats draft staff&#8217;s hats; a 45th round pick in 2011 out of Oklahoma Baptist University was neat and effective upon reaching low-A this year.\u00a0 He had a 2.00 era in 27 relief innings.\u00a0 He had a few more walks than you&#8217;d like to see, but had over a K\/inning to go with it.\u00a0 45th round picks are usually throw-away picks on high schoolers who you don&#8217;t expect to sign; they&#8217;re not generally guys who put in sub 3.00 eras in successive seasons.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: move him up; high-A bullpen<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Other Relievers who appeared in Low-A<\/strong> (not including Rehabbing MLBers): <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em> for all of these guys seems the same: another season in the low minors, struggling to make an impact.\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Wilson Eusebio <\/strong><\/span>was inexplicably promoted after putting up a 6.78 ERA in 28 innings.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Bobby Lucas<\/strong><\/span>, GWU product and local kid, wasn&#8217;t good this year; a 7.67 ERA in 29 innings.\u00a0 He was also incredibly wild; 36\/31 k\/bb in those 29 innings.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Alex Kreis<\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> had a 5.88 era in 26 innings for Hagerstown.\u00a0 Nearly a 2.00 whip; he needs to improve.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Todd Simko<\/strong><\/span>, 2011 21st rounder, got 19 mostly wild innings in before going down with a season-ending injury in May.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong> Leonard Hollins<\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">had a mostly nondescript 2012 season; he was a 29th rounder out of Juco in his first pro season.\u00a0 He needs to show more swing-and-miss (only <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=623488\">8 Ks in 18 innings<\/a>) capability to move up in this organization.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Travis Henke <\/strong><\/span>got lit up in 3 low-A innings and got dumped back to short-A.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Hagerstown had a mixed bag of starters early (some good, some bad), but got help down the stretch from 2012&#8217;s draft class.\u00a0 It wasn&#8217;t enough for them in the end; losing out in the playoffs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Click here for the 2011 version of this post, for a look at how things were last year. Here&#8217;s the Low-A version of the 2012 season pitching staff review.\u00a0 I&#8217;m going down the line from top to bottom; AAA is here, AA is here, High-A is here. As with the other reviews, we&#8217;ll look at [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[916,929,262,926,922,23,928,195,921,920,194,192,923,925,924,43,951,931,166,196,190,51,197,24,930,853,932,917,918],"class_list":["post-4522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-minorspitching","tag-aaron-barrett","tag-alex-kreis","tag-alex-meyer","tag-ben-hawkins","tag-blake-schwarz","tag-bobby-hansen","tag-bobby-lucas","tag-brian-dupra","tag-brian-rauh","tag-chris-mckenzie","tag-christian-meza","tag-colin-bates","tag-dixon-anderson","tag-gregory-holt","tag-jason-smith","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-kylin-turnbull","tag-leonard-hollins","tag-matthew-purke","tag-nathan-karns","tag-pedro-encarnation","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-taylor-hill","tag-taylor-jordan","tag-todd-simko","tag-tommy-john","tag-travis-henke","tag-wilson-eusebio","tag-wirkin-estevez"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4522"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4522\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5025,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4522\/revisions\/5025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}