{"id":4578,"date":"2012-09-21T10:03:30","date_gmt":"2012-09-21T14:03:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4578"},"modified":"2013-10-06T10:35:20","modified_gmt":"2013-10-06T14:35:20","slug":"nats-2012-minor-league-rotations-guesses-and-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4578","title":{"rendered":"Nats 2012 Minor League Rotations: Guesses and Results"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_4670\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/MayaYuneskySyracuse2012-Jim-McGregor-Syracuse-Chiefs-via-milb.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4670\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-4670\" title=\"MayaYuneskySyracuse2012 Jim McGregor Syracuse Chiefs via milb.com\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/MayaYuneskySyracuse2012-Jim-McGregor-Syracuse-Chiefs-via-milb.com_-300x168.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"168\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/MayaYuneskySyracuse2012-Jim-McGregor-Syracuse-Chiefs-via-milb.com_-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/MayaYuneskySyracuse2012-Jim-McGregor-Syracuse-Chiefs-via-milb.com_.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4670\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Yunesky Maya led the Nats minor league starters for the 2nd straight summer. Photo Jim McGregor\/Syracuse Chiefs via milb.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>I stumbled across this post, titled &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3927\" rel=\"bookmark\">Updated Minor League Rotation Predictions for 2012<\/a>,&#8221; posted March 1st 2012, while looking for something else last week. \u00a0And I thought to myself, hey now that I&#8217;ve finished the reviews of the minor league teams, lets see how I did predicting the rotations at the beginning of the season! \u00a0 I&#8217;ve also culled through the post-2011 season review posts for some preliminary guesses at the time.<\/p>\n<p>(Note: I linked to NationalsProspects.com <strong>Luke Erickson<\/strong>&#8216;s guesses in the above link for another perspective in the 2012 spring training).<\/p>\n<p>Players are bolded the first time they&#8217;re mentioned, but not afterwards.<\/p>\n<p>AAA:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sept 11 Guess: <strong>Maya<\/strong>, <strong>Milone<\/strong>, <strong>Stammen<\/strong>, <strong>Meyers<\/strong>, <strong>Peacock, Martis<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Mar 12 Guess: Stammen, Maya<strong>, Arneson, Ballard, Buschmann<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Opening Day Rotation: <strong>Atkins<\/strong>, <strong>Roark<\/strong>, Maya, <strong>Lannan <\/strong>and <strong>Duke<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Maya, Roark, Duke, Lannan, Atkins<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>What happened? \u00a0My\u00a0prediction was way, way off; only Maya was the constant, but we knew that the second he proved he couldn&#8217;t get out MLB hitters last fall. \u00a0The team traded two of its probable AAA starters (Peacock and Milone), lost a third to the Rule-5 draft (Meyers, who honestly we probably will get back once the Yankees are done screwing around with him) and a 4th to Minor League Free Agency (Martis). \u00a0Meanwhile, who knew that Lannan wasn&#8217;t going to make the MLB opening day roster? \u00a0Then, the team released Buschmann before he appeared in a game (he played 2012 in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=501936\">Tampa Bay organization<\/a>). \u00a0Ballard was a starter, just not in AAA. \u00a0Stammen, in a surprise to me, made the conversion from AAA starter in 2011 to MLB bullpen guy and had a great \u00a0year. \u00a0Lastly, instead of using more internal options like Roark the team signed two MLFAs in Duke and Atkins. \u00a0I suppose I could have guessed that the team would go with Roark before Arneson as a starter (given Arneson&#8217;s rubber-armed handling in 2011). \u00a0It just goes to show how much the creation of AAA teams has changed over the years.<\/p>\n<p>AA:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sept 11 Guess: <strong>Rosenbaum<\/strong>, <strong>Bronson<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>Demny<\/strong>, <strong>Olbrychowski<\/strong>, \u00a0<strong>Solis<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Mar 12 Guess: \u00a0Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Olbrychowski,\u00a0<strong>Gilliam<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Opening Day Rotation: Gilliam, Demny, <strong>Mandel<\/strong>, Rosenbaum and Ballard<\/li>\n<li>5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Rosenbaum, Demny, Gilliam, <strong>Perry<\/strong>, Ballard\/<strong>Pucetas<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We were a bit closer here, getting 3 of the 5 guesses right. \u00a0Sammy Solis would absolutely have been in this rotation if not for his Tommy John surgery; we&#8217;ll cross our fingers for him to return in 2013. \u00a0When Solis went out, org-arm Mandel filled in. \u00a0Evan Bronson is still with the organization on Milb.com but never threw an inning in 2012 and isn&#8217;t on the <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdHExYldZVUZJZk9uckFjeEVCSmR5Umc&amp;hl=en#gid=0\">Big Board<\/a>. \u00a0I can&#8217;t find a single bit of google information indicating if he&#8217;s still with the team or not. \u00a0Weird. \u00a0Meanwhile I had just guessed too high for Olbrychowski; he spent most of 2012 as a starter in Potomac. \u00a0Nobody could have guessed that we&#8217;d have traded <strong>Balester<\/strong> for Perry, that Perry would have stunk as a reliever, and then would show up in AA remaking himself as a starter. \u00a0Ballard and Pucetas were MLFA pickups designed to fill holes in the system, though based on his prior experience I had Ballard pegged in the AAA rotation.<\/p>\n<p>High-A:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sept 11 Guess: <strong>Selik<\/strong>, <strong>Grace<\/strong>, <strong>Purke<\/strong>, <strong>Meyer<\/strong>, <strong>Hill, <\/strong><strong>Karns<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Mar 12 Guess: \u00a0Selik, Grace,\u00a0Purke, Meyer, Hill<\/li>\n<li>Opening Day Rotation: <strong>Winters<\/strong>, <strong>Hansen<\/strong>, Olbrychowski, Grace and <strong>Swynenberg<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Grace, <strong>Ray<\/strong>, Swynenberg, Olbrychowski, Karns<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I was far off here as well; Purke got hurt, Meyer, Hill and Karns started lower than I would have guessed \u00a0and Selik was converted to a reliever. \u00a0I was right only on Grace (thought technically I thought Olbrychowski would be a starter, just not back in Potomac). \u00a0Winters was a MLFA (the fifth such MLFA who has appeared as a primary starter in our top three levels; is this a statement of some sort?). \u00a0As we&#8217;ll see in a moment, I was right about Hansen, just wrong about the level. \u00a0Lastly Swynenberg came out of nowhere; he was effective in middle-relief in low-A; who knew he&#8217;d win a spot in the high-A rotation? \u00a0I thought Ray would have done a few turns in low-A; instead he debuted in Potomac and struggled to make the jump. \u00a0I lost faith in Karns between September 2011 and March 2012; as it turned out he was one of the 5 top starters (in terms of appearances) for the year while putting in a career season.<\/p>\n<p>Low-A:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sept 11 Guess: Hansen, <strong>Jordan<\/strong>, <strong>Cole<\/strong>, Ray, <strong>Estevez, McGeary<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Mar 12 Guess: \u00a0<strong>Turnbull, <\/strong>Hansen, Ray, McGeary, Karns<\/li>\n<li>Opening Day Rotation: Estevez, <strong>Dupra<\/strong>\/Karns, Meyer, Turnbull\/Hill, <strong>McKenzie<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Hill, Meyer, Turnbull, Estevez, Hansen<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>What happened? \u00a0The team traded Cole. \u00a0Jordan was injured more than we were led to believe in late 2011 (he had Tommy John surgery after the season was over). \u00a0 I predicted Hansen, Ray, Hill, Estevez, Meyers and Dupra would be starters, just got the levels wrong. \u00a0 My Mar 12 guesses were somewhat accurate in that we got\u00a0Turnbull and Karns right. \u00a0McGeary struggled through yet another injury filled season and may be nearing the end of his baseball career. \u00a0I thought Estevez was getting squeezed out with all these high-profile starters rising up. \u00a0I figured McKenzie had lost his starting shot; clearly his performance in 2012 should end his chances at getting another 2013 starting shot. \u00a0I guess the lesson here is that it can be awful difficult to determine the difference between a High-, Low- and Short-A guy.<\/p>\n<p>Short-A:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sept 11 Guess: <strong>Manny Rodriguez<\/strong>, Dupra, <strong>Baez <\/strong>and two draft picks.<\/li>\n<li>Mar 12 Guess: \u00a0Manny Rodriguez, Dupra, Baez and two draft picks<\/li>\n<li>Opening Day Rotation: \u00a0Jordan\/<strong>Medina<\/strong>, Baez, <strong>Monar<\/strong>, <strong>Encarnation<\/strong>, and <strong>Smith<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Encarnation, Monar, <strong>Lee<\/strong>, <strong>Mooneyham<\/strong>, <strong>Fischer<\/strong>\/<strong>Pineyro<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>My guess of 3 returners and 2 draft picks wasn&#8217;t entirely accurate; there wasn&#8217;t a single 2012 draft pick in the 2012 opening day rotation. \u00a0We got Baez pegged correctly but the rest of the predictions were off. \u00a0Manny Rodriguez, a converted infielder, spent the whole year on the 60-day DL. \u00a0Dupra was in high-A. \u00a0Meanwhile, a couple of guys dropping down from Low-A (Jordan, Encarnation) comprised the rotation at the beginning of the season. \u00a0Monar was a repeater from 2011 who didn&#8217;t get a ton of innings last \u00a0year. \u00a0Eventually some 2012 draftees (Mooneyham, Fischer and others) got starts as expected, and helped drive Auburn to the playoffs.<\/p>\n<p>GCL:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sept 11 Guess: <strong>Mieses, King, <\/strong>Encarnation<strong>, <\/strong>Medina<strong>, Marcelino<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Mar 12 Guess: \u00a0<strong>Mieses <\/strong>repeating plus 4 guys from DSL and the 2012 draft.<\/li>\n<li>Opening Day Rotation: \u00a0Mieses, <strong>Barrientos<\/strong>, Pineyro, <strong>Vasquez<\/strong>, and <strong>Schwarz<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Vasquez, Mieses, <strong>Hudgins<\/strong>, <strong>Selsor<\/strong>, Pineyro\/Schwartz<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Finally we got one right (well, right from Mar 12 guess anyway). \u00a0The GCL rotation was Mieses, 3 DSL graduates and one 2012 draftee. \u00a0Eventually more 2012 draftees (Hudgins, Selsor and others) consumed most of the rest of the starts. \u00a0King disappeared from the rosters; he&#8217;s still in the organization but was never assigned this season. \u00a0Injured? \u00a0Disciplinary issues? \u00a0 There seems to be so much inconsistency in the DSL graduates that it almost isn&#8217;t worth tracking them until they appear in a higher level. \u00a0Honestly, this is why I don&#8217;t really follow the Dominican Summer League teams either.<\/p>\n<p>Phew; that&#8217;s a lot of Nats minor league starters. \u00a0As it showed, its really, really difficult to predict this stuff from a computer in Northern Virginia, scouting the stat lines. \u00a0But its really fun, so we&#8217;ll continue to do it :-).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I stumbled across this post, titled &#8220;Updated Minor League Rotation Predictions for 2012,&#8221; posted March 1st 2012, while looking for something else last week. \u00a0And I thought to myself, hey now that I&#8217;ve finished the reviews of the minor league teams, lets see how I did predicting the rotations at the beginning of the season! [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,2039],"tags":[204,59,17,262,207,201,922,23,72,35,205,856,195,20,950,22,101,98,851,949,934,75,60,203,935,206,924,89,948,39,903,913,951,850,193,26,669,323,166,673,756,196,933,57,190,18,672,543,19,76,202,77,197,24,853,34,936,918,883,906],"class_list":["post-4578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-minorspitching","category-rule-5","tag-adalberto-mieses","tag-adam-olbrychowski","tag-aj-cole","tag-alex-meyer","tag-anthony-marcelino","tag-blake-monar","tag-blake-schwarz","tag-bobby-hansen","tag-brad-meyers","tag-brad-peacock","tag-brandon-king","tag-brett-mooneyham","tag-brian-dupra","tag-cameron-selik","tag-casey-selsor","tag-christopher-mckenzie","tag-collin-balester","tag-craig-stammen","tag-danny-rosenbaum","tag-daury-vasquez","tag-david-fischer","tag-erik-arneson","tag-evan-bronson","tag-gregory-baez","tag-ivan-pineyro","tag-jack-mcgeary","tag-jason-smith","tag-jeff-mandel","tag-joel-barrientos","tag-john-lannan","tag-kevin-pucetas","tag-kyle-winters","tag-kylin-turnbull","tag-luke-erickson","tag-manny-rodriguez","tag-matt-swyndenberg","tag-matthew-buschmann","tag-matthew-grace","tag-matthew-purke","tag-mike-ballard","tag-mitch-atkins","tag-nathan-karns","tag-nicholas-lee","tag-paul-demny","tag-pedro-encarnation","tag-robbie-ray","tag-robert-gilliam","tag-ryan-perry","tag-sammy-solis","tag-shairon-martis","tag-silvio-medina","tag-tanner-roark","tag-taylor-hill","tag-taylor-jordan","tag-tommy-john","tag-tommy-milone","tag-wil-hudgins","tag-wirkin-estevez","tag-yunesky-maya","tag-zach-duke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4578"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4578\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7542,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4578\/revisions\/7542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}