{"id":4646,"date":"2012-09-25T09:59:50","date_gmt":"2012-09-25T13:59:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4646"},"modified":"2013-10-02T10:56:06","modified_gmt":"2013-10-02T14:56:06","slug":"wild-card-pitching-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4646","title":{"rendered":"Wild Card Pitching Strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Kris Medlen is as close to an automatic win as there exists now. Should the Braves use him? Photo unknown via totalprosports.com<\/p><\/div>\n

I was listening to the excellent Fangraphs.com podcast<\/a> last week, hosted by Carson Cistulli<\/strong> and featuring excellent writer Dave Cameron<\/strong>, and Cameron (who writes the blog USS Mariner<\/a> in addition to his Fangraphs work) proposed an interesting theory for handling a pitching staff in the wild card game.<\/p>\n

Conventional wisdom states that the Atlanta Braves (who I’m using as an example here because I think they’re the best bet to advance in a wild card game right now) would throw their unbeatable ace Kris Medlen<\/strong> in the play-in game.\u00a0 Reasoning: you can’t leave your best starter on the bench in a do-or-die game; you have to try to win it.\u00a0 So you throw your best guy to win that game and then deal with the consequences the next round.<\/p>\n

(Tangent: I’m pretty sure MLB assumed that a side effect of adding a second pitcher would result in a weakened wild card winner, which benefits the #1 seeded divisional winner and gives them an advantage going forward. \u00a0I certainly talked about this as a benefit when I lauded the 2nd wild card<\/a> in this space earlier this summer. \u00a0 But the roster loopholes in the wild card game that can be exploited as explained below and the first two home games on the road for the higher seeded team are both major issues that need to be addressed asap).<\/p>\n

But what if the Braves decided to try something unconventional instead of just throwing Medlen?? \u00a0Because of the scheduling of the playoffs<\/a>, the wild card game winner will get a day off between Friday 10\/5\/12 and Sunday 10\/7\/12, meaning they could empty their bullpen and have every single guy down there throw his typical limit of innings and still have everyone available on Sunday for the first game of the Divisional Series. \u00a0So Cameron’s theory is; don’t start your ace; start your bullpen guys, who (especially in Atlanta’s case) are more efficient at getting guys out on a short-term basis. \u00a0Then, after a few innings of relievers throwing, you take a look at the game and decide then if your starter needs to go in.<\/p>\n

What if Atlanta were to start some bullpen guys instead of Medlen in a play-in game, then suddenly Atlanta jumps out to a 4-0 lead. \u00a0You could then put in a different starter (say, the #3 starter, who could throw on 10\/5\/12 then be ready on normal rest for game 3 of the NLDS on Wednesday 10\/10\/12) to finish out the game. \u00a0 You could keep some bullpen guys in reserve to stamp out any fires, but in theory you could manage a game in this fashion and preserve your best starter. \u00a0Plus, a major loop-hole in the playoff roster specification rules means that Atlanta could field a far different roster for just this wild card game than for the rest of the playoffs. \u00a0They could leave off basically their entire rotation and add in 4 more bullpen arms and continue parading out fresh arms all night like it was a spring training game.<\/p>\n

Here’s a look at Atlanta’s top 7 relievers right now (stast as of 9\/24\/12):<\/p>\n\n\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Name<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nW<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nL<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nW-L%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nERA<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nG<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nIP<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nH<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nR<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nER<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nBB<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nSO<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nERA+<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nWHIP<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Craig Kimbrel<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0.667<\/td>\n1.08<\/td>\n58<\/td>\n58.1<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n106<\/td>\n374<\/td>\n0.669<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cristhian Martinez<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0.556<\/td>\n4.04<\/td>\n51<\/td>\n71.1<\/td>\n79<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n32<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n64<\/td>\n100<\/td>\n1.346<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chad Durbin<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0.8<\/td>\n3.19<\/td>\n73<\/td>\n59.1<\/td>\n51<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n46<\/td>\n127<\/td>\n1.331<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jonny Venters*<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0.556<\/td>\n3.46<\/td>\n63<\/td>\n54.2<\/td>\n57<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n117<\/td>\n1.555<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Eric O’Flaherty*<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n1.82<\/td>\n61<\/td>\n54.1<\/td>\n46<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n222<\/td>\n1.196<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Luis Avilan*<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/td>\n2.25<\/td>\n27<\/td>\n32<\/td>\n26<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n181<\/td>\n1.125<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cory Gearrin<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n1.62<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n16.2<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n254<\/td>\n1.14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

There’s some serious arms in that bullpen. \u00a0Kimbrel<\/strong> is obviously a known quantity and his 106 K’s in 58 1\/3 innings are ridiculous. \u00a0But it also means he’s almost guaranteed to shut down whoever he may be pitching against (heard a great stat about Kimbrel recently; he has not pitched an inning all year where he gave up more than one hit. \u00a0That’s as shutdown as it gets). \u00a0 Venters<\/strong> has had a slightly “off” season after being unhittable last year, but still greater than a K an inning. \u00a0\u00a0O’Flaherty<\/strong> has been fantastic and could give you an inning. \u00a0Younger guys like Avilan<\/strong> and Gearrin<\/strong> don’t have a ton of experience but have performed excellently for the Braves.<\/p>\n

Why wouldn’t you start off a game with (say) Venters going against the top of St. Louis’ order, then bringing in someone like Avilan for the 2nd and 3rd (he’s a 2-inning guy). \u00a0Bring in O’Flaherty when the big hitters roll around again in the 4th inning, then go with someone like Durbin for the next two innings. \u00a0You bring in Gearrin for the 7th and 8th, and then you’ve saved Kimbrel for perhaps 4 or 5 out save in the 8th and 9th. \u00a0 And by virtue of the one-game roster setting loophole, this is just the first 7 guys out of the bullpen; one could add in 4-5 more arms as need be.<\/p>\n

Honestly, I think this is a winning strategy. \u00a0Will the Braves (or the Cardinals for that matter) consider employing it? \u00a0No way;\u00a0\u00a0Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez<\/strong> is well known in the baseball press for being “uber traditional” in the way he handles his pitching staff (lots of complaints about his leaving his best arm out there til it is a “save” situation instead of using him in higher leverage situations). \u00a0And the Braves have already manipulated their rotation<\/a> to put Medlen in line for a wild card start. \u00a0Meanwhile St. Louis’ Mike Matheny<\/strong> is a rookie manager and such a strategy as laid out here is basically putting your job on the line for a coin-flip; if it doesn’t work out you’re fired. \u00a0Tony LaRussa<\/strong> could have pulled this off; he had enough respect and enough history to be given a pass if he tried something radical and it didn’t work out. \u00a0In fact, if LaRussa was still the manager I’d bet this is exactly what he’d do; we are talking afterall about the guy who essentially invented the modern bullpen.<\/p>\n

In the end, it’ll be in the #1 seed’s favor if the Braves burned Medlen. \u00a0But it’d be great talking fodder if they tried the strategy above.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I was listening to the excellent Fangraphs.com podcast last week, hosted by Carson Cistulli and featuring excellent writer Dave Cameron, and Cameron (who writes the blog USS Mariner in addition to his Fangraphs work) proposed an interesting theory for handling a pitching staff in the wild card game. Conventional wisdom states that the Atlanta Braves […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,2036],"tags":[960,963,967,961,962,449,965,968,964,970,966,969,283],"class_list":["post-4646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-post-season","tag-carson-cistulli","tag-chad-durbin","tag-cory-gearrin","tag-craig-kimbrel","tag-cristhian-martinez","tag-dave-cameron","tag-eric-oflaherty","tag-fredi-gonzalez","tag-jonny-venters","tag-kris-medlen","tag-luis-avilan","tag-mike-matheny","tag-tony-larussa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4646","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4646"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4646\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5172,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4646\/revisions\/5172"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}