{"id":4739,"date":"2012-09-27T14:28:42","date_gmt":"2012-09-27T18:28:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4739"},"modified":"2012-09-27T14:28:42","modified_gmt":"2012-09-27T18:28:42","slug":"can-we-find-a-5th-starter-for-2013-internally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4739","title":{"rendered":"Can we find a 5th starter for 2013 internally?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Could Garcia's great stuff translate into a starting role in 2013? Photo unknown via federalbaseball.com<\/p><\/div>\n

I’ve been thinking about the rotation \u00a0for 2013, reading some early 2013 Free Agent rankings, and steeling myself for the reality that this team is more than likely to lose Edwin Jackson<\/strong> to free agency. \u00a0Two primary reasons we probably lose Jackson:<\/p>\n

1. He’s one of the best available starters in this coming off season’s FA market<\/p>\n

2. He’s likely to command a multi year deal at more money than this team is probably willing to offer.<\/p>\n

Considering our “core 5 starters,”\u00a0Jackson ranks 5th out of 5 in terms of ERA and ERA+<\/a>, and he’s 4th of 5 in terms of Whip and FIP<\/a>,\u00a0and 3rd of our 5 (barely) via xFIP and SIERA<\/a>. \u00a0He’s been clearly out pitched this year by our 5th starter Detwiler<\/strong> and isn’t ahead of the big three in anyone’s eyes. \u00a0So the question is; will the Nats make its 5th starter its highest paid pitcher?<\/p>\n

I just don’t think so.<\/p>\n

So we’re likely looking for a 5th starter for 2013. \u00a0The FA market is pretty bare<\/a>:\u00a0Zack Greinke<\/strong> is going to command a massive deal for a guy who, honestly, has had one stellar season<\/a> in 2009 and since has been no better than a 3rd starter. \u00a0I think the Nats should stay away from him. \u00a0The Nats should also stay away from promising starters in 2012 but who have injury or inconsistency issues (Dan Haren<\/strong> and Jake Peavy<\/strong>, both of whom likely have their 2013 options declined). \u00a0Who else is out there that fits the Mike Rizzo<\/strong> mold (hard thrower, high K\/9 rates)? \u00a0Shawn Marcum<\/strong>? \u00a0Brandon McCarthy<\/strong>? \u00a0Also injury concerns. \u00a0How about Anibel Sanchez<\/strong>, Jonathan Sanchez<\/strong> and Ervin Santana<\/strong>? \u00a0All three guys have good seasons in their immediate past but blew up (or were at best inconsistent) in 2012.<\/p>\n

Maybe the above paragraph is even more support for re-signing Jackson frankly; he’s got no injury issues, apparently is a good clubhouse guy and meets Rizzo<\/strong>‘s starter criteria for veteran, hard-throwing innings eater. \u00a0So maybe this whole article is going to be moot.<\/p>\n

Here’s a different take (and the point of this article); some news items came out this week that caught my eye; perhaps the Nats can find a 2013 5th starter internally instead? \u00a0Christian Garcia<\/strong> has really impressed in 2012, from his stellar minor league numbers to his good performances out of the bullpen in September. \u00a0And now word has it that the team is considering looking at him as a starter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I love Garcia’s stuff; he’s a 3 plus pitch guy with a ton of movement on his decent fastball. \u00a0Here’s some Pitch F\/X data<\/a> for him this year; 95mph average (peaking at 97.8mph), 10mph delta between his fastball and change, and a ridiculous amount of movement on his 12-6 curveball. \u00a0He’s getting nearly a 20% swing-and-miss rate across all his pitches. \u00a0Fangraphs.com even did a post specifically on Garcia<\/a> based on his September performance, featuring an animated .gif of \u00a0his “stupid good” curve.<\/p>\n

That features as a pretty good starter line to me. \u00a0Perhaps he needs a 4th pitch (his over-the-top delivery could lend itself to a sinking 2-seam fastball, a cutter or even a split-fingered pitch that he could add to his arsenal) to be truly effective as a starter.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the team has already started the Ryan Perry<\/strong> conversion to starter experiment, and his AA starting numbers in 2012 were pretty good. \u00a0Pulling this text from my AA-in-review post<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Ryan Perry, astutely acquired for Collin Balester<\/strong> (who failed to impress in Detroit and was DFA’d earlier this year) in spring training and he competed for the MLB bullpen. \u00a0He featured briefly, was ineffective and was optioned to AAA. \u00a0The team took a look at his repertoire and decided to try to convert him to a starter in AA. \u00a0The results? \u00a0Pretty good; a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 whip in 13 AA starts. \u00a0Outlook for next season: here’s the problem with Perry; he’s out of options for 2013. \u00a0He was added to a 40-man roster in April 2009, and burned options in 2009, 2011 and this year. \u00a0 So he has to either make the MLB club or be DFA’d at the end of spring training. \u00a0So look for Perry to compete for the #5 starter job or be considered trade bait in the off-season.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Can Perry continue his starter performance in spring training in 2013? \u00a0Could Garcia win the job? \u00a0Will the Nats pursue a starter on the FA market? \u00a0Or, as they did in the 2012 off-season will they shock us with a trade that comes out of nowhere?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’ve been thinking about the rotation \u00a0for 2013, reading some early 2013 Free Agent rankings, and steeling myself for the reality that this team is more than likely to lose Edwin Jackson to free agency. \u00a0Two primary reasons we probably lose Jackson: 1. He’s one of the best available starters in this coming off season’s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[777,387,103,101,983,253,1024,1022,320,129,51,543,1023,254],"class_list":["post-4739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-anibal-sanchez","tag-brandon-mccarthy","tag-christian-garcia","tag-collin-balester","tag-dan-haren","tag-edwin-jackson","tag-ervin-santana","tag-jake-peavy","tag-jonathan-sanchez","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-ryan-perry","tag-shawn-marcum","tag-zack-greinke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4739","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4739"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4739\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4874,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4739\/revisions\/4874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}