{"id":4824,"date":"2012-10-05T13:29:14","date_gmt":"2012-10-05T17:29:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4824"},"modified":"2013-10-02T10:58:26","modified_gmt":"2013-10-02T14:58:26","slug":"wc-pitching-matchup-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4824","title":{"rendered":"WC Pitching Matchup Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Kris Medlen looks to get the WC win for his team. Photo unk via totalprosports.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Here we go. \u00a0Baseball’s first wild card play-in games are set for tonight (at 5pm and 8:30pm eastern time), and its safe to say there was a surprise or two with the announced pitching matchups. \u00a0Lets look at the guys getting the starts and make some predictions on which team has the better chance based on the starter going. \u00a0I tried to do similar posts<\/a> for the 2011 post season<\/a> and, while they’re not always accurate, they’re fun to do and to read.<\/p>\n

MLB Probable Pitchers are here<\/a>, for tonight and the first few games of the playoffs.<\/p>\n

1. St. Louis at Atlanta<\/em>. \u00a0This is the game DC will be watching. \u00a0Match up: Kris Medlen<\/strong> (10-1, 1.57 ERA<\/a>) versus Kyle Lohse<\/strong> (16-3, 2.86 ERA<\/a>)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

What more can we say about Medlen that we havn’t already said? \u00a09 earned runs allowed in his 12 starts on the season, a 10-1 record<\/a> with a 1.57 ERA. \u00a0He’s the modern day equivalent of Greg Maddux<\/strong>, a slight framed guy with beyond pinpoint control. \u00a0 He achieved a bWAR of 4.4 despite getting just 12 starts on the year and pitching in middle relief until August.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse quietly had a great year. \u00a0Nobody’s mentioning his name in consideration of Cy Young despite a sterling record and great ancillary numbers (a 134 ERA+ is pretty good). \u00a0I think his selection is slightly surprising to go in this game; he’s probably the #3 starter on the team (behind Chris Carpenter<\/strong> and Adam Wainwright<\/strong>) but he’s clearly the best performer on the year. \u00a0As with Atlanta choosing Medlen over Tim Hudson<\/strong>, Cardinals Manager Mike Matheny<\/strong> is going with his hottest hand.<\/p>\n

However, while Medlen is likely to pitch 6-7 innings of one-run ball, I think the Braves get to Lohse. \u00a0They’ve faced him once already this year and put 9 hits and 5 runs on him<\/a> in May. \u00a0The Braves hit right-handers far better than lefties, but St. Louis really doesn’t have a great lefty starter choice. \u00a0Jaime Garcia<\/strong> may not even make the post-season roster (would you take Garcia ahead of Lance Lynn<\/strong>?).<\/p>\n

The Pick: Atlanta in what could be a romp.<\/p>\n

\n

1.\u00a0Baltimore at Texas. \u00a0 Match up:\u00a0Joe Saunders<\/strong> (3-3, 3.63 ERA<\/a> after his trade to Baltimore) versus\u00a0Yu Darvish<\/strong> (16-9, 3.90 ERA<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Saunders is another surprising pick for Baltimore, who has gotten by on smoke & mirrors all season when it comes to starting pitching. \u00a0The Northern Virginia Native Saunders (West Springfield HS and then Virginia Tech) is essentially a MLB-average starter for his career (a 103 ERA+) but pitched above his career stats in Baltimore.<\/p>\n

Not to denigrate Saunders, but he’s essentially a less stable version of John Lannan<\/strong>. \u00a0He’s a softer tossing lefty who is about MLB average over his career, but with higher and lower extremes from season to season. \u00a0Would you trust a do-or-die situation in the hands of Lannan? \u00a0Problem is, who else would you go with if you were the Orioles? \u00a0I thought they’d go with the hot-hand Steve Johnson<\/strong> or their ace Wei-Yin Chen<\/strong>. \u00a0We’ll see if this gamble pays off; the Rangers hit left-handed pitching pretty well (108 wRC+, .285 BA<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, this is a national stage for high priced Japanese import Darvish. \u00a0He had a relatively effective season (16-9, a 116 ERA+) and got a ton of strike outs (221 in just 191 1\/3 innings pitched). \u00a0The Orioles definitely have some higher-strike out guys in the middle of their order (Chris Davis<\/strong>, Mary Reynolds<\/strong>). \u00a0 \u00a0Darvish never faced Baltimore this season, but had a strong September and seems hitting his stride entering the playoffs.<\/p>\n

The Pick: Texas in a struggle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here we go. \u00a0Baseball’s first wild card play-in games are set for tonight (at 5pm and 8:30pm eastern time), and its safe to say there was a surprise or two with the announced pitching matchups. \u00a0Lets look at the guys getting the starts and make some predictions on which team has the better chance based […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,3,2036],"tags":[346,224,1030,120,324,437,39,970,231,897,799,969,1028,219,1029,300],"class_list":["post-4824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nonnatsbaseball","category-mlbpitching","category-post-season","tag-adam-wainwright","tag-chris-carpenter","tag-chris-davis","tag-greg-maddux","tag-jaime-garcia","tag-joe-saunders","tag-john-lannan","tag-kris-medlen","tag-kyle-lohse","tag-lance-lynn","tag-mark-reynolds","tag-mike-matheny","tag-steve-johnson","tag-tim-hudson","tag-wei-yin-chen","tag-yu-darvish"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4824"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4824\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4832,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4824\/revisions\/4832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}