{"id":4835,"date":"2012-10-06T22:49:28","date_gmt":"2012-10-07T02:49:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4835"},"modified":"2013-10-10T09:19:17","modified_gmt":"2013-10-10T13:19:17","slug":"washington-vs-st-louis-a-tale-of-two-series","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4835","title":{"rendered":"Washington vs St. Louis &#8211; A tale of two Series"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_4838\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/JacksonEdwin-Natsofficial-via-espn.com_.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4838\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-4838\" title=\"JacksonEdwin Natsofficial via espn.com\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/JacksonEdwin-Natsofficial-via-espn.com_-150x150.png\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4838\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">We need Edwin Jackson to perform against his former team. Photo Nats team official via espn.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Ok, I&#8217;ll admit to being (as one commenter said recently) the &#8220;Eeyore&#8221; of Nationals fans.\u00a0 I was scared of Atlanta and thought we would struggle to beat them in a short series starting on their turf.\u00a0 I posted my baseball predictions and the two teams I thought would make the series both lost under sometimes <a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/baseball\/mlb\/gameflash\/2012\/10\/05\/43664\/index.html#recap\">interesting circumstances<\/a>.\u00a0 The unbeatable ace <strong>Kris Medlen<\/strong> got beat, losing a start for the Braves for the first time in 24 times (not that he really pitched badly; I&#8217;ll take a 6+ inning, 3 hit, 0 walk performance every day of the week.\u00a0 Think about how difficult it is to give up 5 runs on 3 hits&#8230;).\u00a0 So perhaps I&#8217;ll understand if you don&#8217;t really want to trust my opinion on predicting the divisional series.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway.\u00a0 So the Nats are traveling to St. Louis to start the NLDS.\u00a0 If you&#8217;re looking for a guess as to who has the advantage by looking at the two meetings between the teams this year, you may find definitive proof wanting.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Nats took 3 of 4 at the end of August from St. Louis, bombing them for 31 runs in four games and really roughing up three of St. Louis&#8217; best starters (in order <strong>Jaime Garcia<\/strong>, <strong>Adam Wainwright<\/strong> and <strong>Kyle Lohse<\/strong>, tagging each for 5-6 runs).\u00a0 Only <strong>Jake Westbrook<\/strong> kept the Nats offense at bay, and as far as I can tell he&#8217;s not going to be on the playoff roster.\u00a0 The one loss in this series was in one of the more <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/boxes\/WAS\/WAS201209010.shtml\">amazing games the Nats<\/a> played this year; they blew a 4 run first inning lead, fell behind 8-6 on <strong>Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong>&#8216;s worst outing of the year, rallied to take the lead only to have the bullpen blow the game.<\/li>\n<li>The Nats then traveled to St. Louis the last week of the season and were pretty much bombed themselves, with St. Louis scoring 26 runs in three games while taking 2 of 3 with our guys <strong>Edwin Jackson<\/strong> and <strong>Ross Detwiler<\/strong> having nights they&#8217;d rather forget.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, which series is more educational to help predict what may happen now?\u00a0 As commenters have pointed out, momentum means nothing and a shutout yesterday indicates nothing for today.\u00a0 Fair enough.\u00a0 We have learned that both offense are capable of really putting runs on the board, fast.\u00a0 But that wasn&#8217;t exactly news either; the teams were <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2012&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2012&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=5,d\">2nd (Cardinals) and 5th (Nationals)<\/a> in runs scored in the NL this year.<\/p>\n<p>What is fair to say is that the Nats probably have a more dangerous opponent in St. Louis; they&#8217;re a better offense, though they clearly hit right-handed hitters better than lefties (a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2012&amp;month=14&amp;season1=2012&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0\">113 wRC+ versus right handed hurlers versus 104 versus lefties<\/a>).\u00a0 And they&#8217;re getting back a grizzled post-season veteran in <strong>Chris Carpenter<\/strong> just in time for the playoffs.\u00a0 Carpenter is probably on most people&#8217;s short list for &#8220;guys i&#8217;d trust to start Game 7&#8221; in this league, and now the Nats seem set to face him in Game 3.<\/p>\n<p>Lets look at the pitching matchups (some of this is a guess; official starters havn&#8217;t been named all the way through the 5-game series but the below should be what we see);<\/p>\n<table width=\"595\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"92\" \/>\n<col width=\"46\" \/>\n<col width=\"112\" \/>\n<col width=\"88\" \/>\n<col width=\"100\" \/>\n<col width=\"89\" \/>\n<col width=\"68\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"92\" height=\"20\">Series<\/td>\n<td width=\"46\">GM#<\/td>\n<td width=\"112\">Date\/time (EST)<\/td>\n<td width=\"88\">Home-Visitor<\/td>\n<td width=\"100\">Home Starter<\/td>\n<td width=\"89\">Visiting Starter<\/td>\n<td width=\"68\">Advantage<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">NLDS 1-4<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>10\/7\/12 3pm<\/td>\n<td>Stl-WAS<\/td>\n<td>Wainwright<\/td>\n<td>Gonzalez<\/td>\n<td>Wsh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">NLDS 1-4<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>10\/8\/12 4:30pm<\/td>\n<td>Stl-WAS<\/td>\n<td>Garcia<\/td>\n<td>Zimmermann<\/td>\n<td>Wsh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">NLDS 1-4<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>10\/10\/12 ?time<\/td>\n<td>WAS-Stl<\/td>\n<td>Jackson<\/td>\n<td>Carpenter<\/td>\n<td>Stl<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">NLDS 1-4<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>10\/11\/12 ?time<\/td>\n<td>WAS-Stl<\/td>\n<td>Detwiler<\/td>\n<td>Lohse<\/td>\n<td>Tossup<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">NLDS 1-4<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>10\/12\/12 ?time<\/td>\n<td>WAS-Stl<\/td>\n<td>Gonzalez<\/td>\n<td>Wainwright<\/td>\n<td>Wsh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>The good news: Washington has shown it can blast St. Louis starters.\u00a0 As mentioned above, the team put up very big numbers on 3 of the 4 starters they anticipate seeing in this series.\u00a0 Meanwhile, St. Louis gets to see our Ace <strong>Gio Gonzalez<\/strong> twice; the last time they saw him Gio pitched a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/boxes\/WAS\/WAS201208310.shtml\">5-hit shutout<\/a>.\u00a0 They also see Detwiler in game 4, meaning three of their five potential series games are against Lefties (whom they are weaker against).\u00a0 Zimmermann&#8217;s home-away splits favor him on the road, and I think Jackson will be looking for revenge for his poor outing against them the last time out.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll admit; I was scared of Atlanta.\u00a0 And I&#8217;m wary of St. Louis, especially after the late season spanking.\u00a0 But, they didn&#8217;t see Gonzalez in that series and now are set to see him twice.\u00a0 The Nats offense isn&#8217;t going to be afraid of any St. Louis starter (perhaps outside of Carpenter, who a lot of them havn&#8217;t seen in a while), and should put runs on the board.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction?\u00a0 I think the Nats have the pitching matchup advantage in 3 of the 5 games and may only be a pitching &#8220;underdog&#8221; in the Jackson-Carpenter start.\u00a0 The goal is to get a split in St Louis and Gonzalez-Zimmermann gives them a great shot in both games.\u00a0 I like our chances.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ok, I&#8217;ll admit to being (as one commenter said recently) the &#8220;Eeyore&#8221; of Nationals fans.\u00a0 I was scared of Atlanta and thought we would struggle to beat them in a short series starting on their turf.\u00a0 I posted my baseball predictions and the two teams I thought would make the series both lost under sometimes [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5,2036],"tags":[346,224,253,385,324,896,43,970,231,51],"class_list":["post-4835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-natsgeneral","category-post-season","tag-adam-wainwright","tag-chris-carpenter","tag-edwin-jackson","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-jaime-garcia","tag-jake-westbrook","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-kris-medlen","tag-kyle-lohse","tag-ross-detwiler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4835"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4835\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7908,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4835\/revisions\/7908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}