{"id":493,"date":"2010-12-16T19:53:26","date_gmt":"2010-12-17T00:53:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=493"},"modified":"2010-12-16T19:56:12","modified_gmt":"2010-12-17T00:56:12","slug":"nats-2011-bullpen-with-latest-acquisitions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=493","title":{"rendered":"Nats 2011 Bullpen Prediction with latest acquisitions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_495\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/IMG_9340-Drew-Storen.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-495\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-495\" title=\"IMG_9340 Drew Storen\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/IMG_9340-Drew-Storen-300x232.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"232\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/IMG_9340-Drew-Storen-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/IMG_9340-Drew-Storen-1024x792.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/IMG_9340-Drew-Storen.jpg 1531w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-495\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Drew Storen firing one in there.  His motion kinda reminds you of the Chief&#39;s doesn&#39;t it?  Photo: Photo 2010 \u00a9 Cheryl Nichols Photography\/ Nationals News Network.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>With the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.csnwashington.com\/12\/16\/10\/Nats-trade-Willingham-to-As-for-2-player\/landing.html?blockID=374690&amp;feedID=280\"><strong>Josh Willingham<\/strong> trade<\/a> netting <strong>Henry Rodriguez<\/strong>, a back-of-the-bullpen power arm, coupled with another bullpen arm picked up in the rule-5 draft (<strong>Elvin Ramirez<\/strong>), how is the bullpen competition shaping up for the 2011 team?<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s how things stand right now: I&#8217;m using a standard 7-man bullpen to start (even though we started 2010 with 8 guys out there due to a quirk in the schedule that allowed us a week before needing Livan&#8217;s 5th starter services).\u00a0 This bullpen configuration means roughly a closer, 2 setup guys, a loogy, a longman and two right handers.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Closer: Storen<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It looks to me like, absent a FA signing, that <strong>Drew Storen<\/strong> is entering 2011 as the closer.\u00a0 There are a couple possible closers still on the FA market but each has some draw backs.\u00a0 <strong>Rafael Soriano<\/strong> is a type A free agent and I can&#8217;t quite see the Nats giving up their 2nd rounder for him.\u00a0 <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/g\/greggke01.shtml\">Kevin Gregg<\/a><\/strong> is a type B and could still be an option.\u00a0 He had good numbers for Toronto last year but\u00a0 has bounced around and may be destined for a setup role (especially after seeing some closer candidates sign on with teams that already have closers established, like what <strong>Bobby Jenks<\/strong> just did).\u00a0 <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/f\/fuentbr01.shtml\">Brian Fuentes <\/a><\/strong>also makes for a possible candidate, and is two years removed from a 48-save season in Los Angeles.\u00a0 But, he doesn&#8217;t really feature a power arm and may be destined for an 8th inning support role like what <strong>George Sherill<\/strong> has become.\u00a0 Former Nat <strong>Jon Rauch<\/strong> is available and had good numbers for Minnesota, but he should be a setup guy.\u00a0 Lastly guys like <strong>Octavio Dotel<\/strong>,<br \/>\n<strong>Trevor Hoffman<\/strong>, and\u00a0 may be closer to retirement than closer roles in the majors.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Setup\/8th Inning: Clippard, Burnett<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Nothing shocking here; the two pillars of the bullpen will continue to trade 8th inning responsibilities based on match-ups, and could also form a closer-by-committee with the youngster Storen.<\/p>\n<p>Now, here&#8217;s where it gets interesting.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Righty competition: ERamirez, HRodriguez, Kimball, Carr, Wilkie<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I&#8217;ve listed rule5 pickup <strong>Elvin Ramirez<\/strong> and newly acquired <strong>Henry Rodriguez<\/strong> as the two favorites for right handed options out of the bullpen by virtue of their contract statuses.\u00a0 If Ramirez doesn&#8217;t stick, we have to return him (or at the very least work out a trade with New York to retain him.\u00a0 Meanwhile. Rodriguez is out of options and would have to pass through waivers to return to the minors.\u00a0 Attempting to do this would pretty much defeat the purpose of trading Willingham away, so he&#8217;s likely to stick all year.\u00a0 <strong>Kimball<\/strong> and <strong>Carr<\/strong> both featured in the AFL and were both 40-man additions to protect them from the rule-5, but unless one or both of them beat out Ramirez and force the Nats to consider his return, both guys are looking at AAA to start the season.\u00a0 <strong>Wilkie<\/strong>&#8216;s lack of 40-man standing and his safely passing through two straight years of rule5 drafts may indicate that he&#8217;s reached his peak as a player.\u00a0 Perhaps he could earn a mid-season or Sept 1 call-up.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Loogy competition : Slaten, Severino<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Despite adding <strong>Atahualpao Severino<\/strong> to the\u00a0 40-man to protect him, I cannot see him beating out the very effective <strong>Doug Slaten<\/strong> as our loogy specialist.\u00a0 Now, Burnett certainly can perform this role as well but he&#8217;s more valuable than just serving as a one-batter guy, hence the need for a specialist.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Long man: Balester, Stammen<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Despite all the more advanced stats showing that <strong>Craig Stammen<\/strong> was far more effective a starter than his &#8220;traditional numbers&#8221; showed (he had the 2nd best xFIP to <strong>Strasburg<\/strong> of any of our starters last year), it seems that his future is in the bullpen.\u00a0 There&#8217;s just too many starters in competition for not enough spots and he&#8217;s clearly lagging behind guys who I already believe will start in AAA.\u00a0 2011 will be his last option year, so this is a make or break year for him.\u00a0 Meanwhile, speaking of options, I believe that Balester is OUT of options (he was brought up in mid 2008, then split both 09 and 2010 between the majors and minors).\u00a0 If he is indeed out of options he may very well get the long man job by default coming out of spring training.\u00a0 If he under-performs, it might spell the end of his nats career (similar to what happened to <strong>Jason Bergmann<\/strong> last year).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AAA\/Minors: Mattheus, Bisenius<\/li>\n<li>40-man Relievers already released post 2010: Walker, English, Peralta, Batista<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I was happy to see both Mattheus and Bisenius return to the Nats fold after getting shuffled off the 40-man.\u00a0 Mattheus has struggled with injuries and still could be a future option, and Bisenius seems to be a blogger favorite.<\/p>\n<p>I was NOT so happy to see that <strong>Joel Peralta<\/strong>&#8216;s fine 2010 was not enough to earn him arbitration offers from the Nats, and word came down today that he has <a href=\"http:\/\/hardballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2010\/12\/16\/rays-agree-to-terms-on-900000-deal-with-joel-peralta\/\">signed with Tampa Bay<\/a>, who desperately needs relievers for a bullpen that was entirely composed of 2010 Free Agents.\u00a0 I understand Washington&#8217;s decision NOT to get committed to a mid-30s reliever who seemed to have a career year, but we couldn&#8217;t spend $1M on the guy?\u00a0 I could see us re-signing rubber-armed <strong>Miguel Batista<\/strong> to compete for a righty slot in the spring.\u00a0 Walker and English are both injury rehab risks and probably sign minor league contracts, with us or someone else.<\/p>\n<p>So; your 2011 bullpen: Storen, Clippard, Burnett, ERamirez, HRodriguez, Slaten and Balester.<\/p>\n<p>Compare this to the 2010 opening day bullpen: Capps, Bruney, Clippard, Burnett, English, Bergmann, Walker, Batista.<\/p>\n<p>Improved?\u00a0 Even ff Ramirez and Rodriguez don&#8217;t pan out, I like 2011 better.<\/p>\n<div id=\"_mcePaste\" style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\">Henry Rodriguez<strong>Henry Rodriguez<\/strong><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the Josh Willingham trade netting Henry Rodriguez, a back-of-the-bullpen power arm, coupled with another bullpen arm picked up in the rule-5 draft (Elvin Ramirez), how is the bullpen competition shaping up for the 2011 team? Here&#8217;s how things stand right now: I&#8217;m using a standard 7-man bullpen to start (even though we started 2010 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=493"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/493\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":499,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/493\/revisions\/499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}