{"id":5362,"date":"2012-11-30T11:31:51","date_gmt":"2012-11-30T16:31:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5362"},"modified":"2012-11-30T13:23:44","modified_gmt":"2012-11-30T18:23:44","slug":"span-for-meyer-understand-it-but-dont-entire-like-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5362","title":{"rendered":"Span for Meyer; Understand it but don’t entirely like it"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

The team gets the lead-off hitter it has needed for years in Denard Span. Photo Bruce Kluckhohn\/Minnesota Twins via twitter<\/p><\/div>\n

At least Nats fans can start understanding the team’s off-season plans a little more clearly now. \u00a0The first domino has fallen. \u00a0The Nats acquired Denard Span<\/strong> from Minnesota for Alex Meyer<\/strong> yesterday<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I’ve argued against a center field acquisition for a while now. \u00a0Here’s three primary reasons why:<\/p>\n

1. I don’t feel the Nats needed a center fielder. \u00a0Bryce Harper<\/strong> put up a 17.6 UZR\/150 in 715+ innings<\/a> while showing a plus-plus arm (both statistically and for any casual observers). \u00a0 He’s just turning 20. \u00a0There is no reason to think he cannot ably patrol center for at least the next few years. \u00a0I’ve used this analogy before, but I feel like its the Yankees approaching Mickey Mantle<\/strong> after his first season in center and saying, “Hey Mick, we like you in center but we have this barely above league average guy\u00a0At least until point #2 possibly comes to play:<\/p>\n

2. Brian Goodwin<\/strong>, along with Destin Hood, <\/strong>Eury Perez<\/strong>, Michael Taylor<\/strong><\/strong> and any other marginal OF prospect the team has is now effectively blocked for at least the next 3 years and possibly longer. \u00a0Span is signed through 2014<\/a> (with a very affordable 2015 option), Jayson Werth<\/strong> signed through 2017, and Harper is under team control through at least 2017. \u00a0 There’s your outfield for the next 3 years guaranteed, 2\/3rds of which is locked up for the next 5. \u00a0I just feel that the better path would have been to let Harper play CF until Goodwin or Perez seems ready (clearly Godwin is an upper-end prospect who has impressed ever since he was drafted, and the team didn’t add Perez to their 40-man roster just to give him the extra salary) and just make do with a slugger in left field.<\/p>\n

3. The loss of Alex Meyer<\/strong> represents the best healthy starter arm in the entire system, a system which is becoming thinner and thinner (with this trade on the backs of the Gio trade I’d guess the Nats are now going to be in the bottom 5 farm systems when rankings start coming out). \u00a0You can argue whether or not Meyer was going to stick as a starter (see the “bright side” points below), but inarguably this weakens the farm system in general and further weakens a specific problem that may pop up sooner than later; starting pitcher depth. \u00a0If one of our big 4 suffers a spring training injury, it is difficult to see who may step up and be counted on for starts.<\/p>\n

This move clearly forces the Nationals hand on Michael Morse<\/strong>, and now the team may end up negotiating from a point of weakness if they need to move him. \u00a0The decision path for the team now is clearly “Morse or LaRoche” at first base. \u00a0If the team does bring back Adam LaRoche<\/strong> suddenly Morse is without a lineup spot and his trade value diminishes quickly. \u00a0If the rumors are true that LaRoche is “only” seeking a 3 year deal, the Nats should stumble over themselves to offer him a 3 year deal (3yrs $40M seems more than fair based on what LaRoche did for us last year) and lock up the plus-defender\/middle of the order bat.<\/p>\n

This move also cannot be a happy day for Tyler Moore<\/strong>; he’s clearly set on being a backup now in 2013 no matter what happens with Morse\/LaRoche, despite promising numbers in 2012. \u00a0 Well, unless the team fails to re-sign LaRoche AND moves Morse (which I suppose is still possible but would make little sense), which would then install Moore as the every day first baseman. \u00a0Between Moore, Morse possibly being out of a position and Goodwin being blocked for years to come, you have to think we’re going to see some more moves involving these players (hopefully to acquire a starter, or some starter depth in the minors).<\/p>\n

\n

Now, on the bright side (since I’ve been accused of being too negative in my analysis), I will say the following:<\/p>\n

1. We did not give up a ton for Span. \u00a0I like Meyer, but I’m afraid he may not stick as a starter. \u00a0The scouting knock on him has always related to his tall frame and repeatability of his delivery. \u00a0He has a funky leg kick and slightly weird mechanics, further muddying the waters. \u00a0Lastly he’s a huge guy and he (at first glance in videos) seems to really throw standing up and doesn’t use a ton of his lower body. \u00a0All of this spells “reliever” in his future. \u00a0If Meyer tops out as a fireballing reliever, this trade looks even better.<\/p>\n

2. Span inarguably fills a need; a high OBP leadoff hitter. \u00a0He’s a .357 career OBP guy<\/a> with speed and who hits lefty, a nearly perfect fit for what this lineup needs at the top. \u00a0Leadoff hitters generally come from one of three positions: CF, SS and 2B. \u00a0If the team decided it NEEDED a leadoff guy, and with Desmond<\/strong> and Espinosa<\/strong> locked into the SS and 2B slots for the time being, clearly the only place the team could go was a center-fielder. \u00a0The USAToday article linked at the top said it best (paraphrasing): this move is as if you bought a new chair for your living room, which forced you to have to move around your furniture. \u00a0You didn’t necessarily need the new chair, but it certainly makes your living room look better. \u00a0This move enables Werth to move further down in the lineup and return to his power stroke.<\/p>\n

3. We didn’t spend good money after bad on BJ Upton<\/strong> or\u00a0Michael Bourn<\/strong>, who’s 5yr\/$75M demands would have been a real waste of money. \u00a0Span’s contract is great: 5yrs for $16.5M<\/a> guaranteed plus a $9M option in 2015. \u00a0 The Nats acquired a desired resource without appreciably increasing payroll, allowing them to focus (perhaps) on a FA starter.<\/p>\n

Initial reaction to the trade in the Baseball World seems mixed, which is great since it probably indicates that this is a pretty fair trade all in all. \u00a0Keith Law<\/strong> doesn’t like it of\u00a0\u00a0course<\/a>, but that’s because Law believes every low-minors big arm is turning into Justin Verlander<\/strong> (Law also thought the Gio Gonzalez<\/strong> trade was a “huge win” for Oakland because they got AJ Cole<\/strong>, the same AJ Cole who put up a 7.82 ERA in high-A<\/a> this year and was forced to repeat Low-A). \u00a0Meanwhile Dave Cameron<\/strong> calls this a “huge win<\/a>” for Washington, focusing on Span’s numbers and mentioning the same concerns about Meyer that I do. \u00a0Rob Neyer<\/strong> pays a complement to Mike Rizzo<\/strong> and the Nats and says the team is well-positioned for several years<\/a>. \u00a0Ken Rosenthal<\/strong> talks about the about-face the franchise has done<\/a> in the last 3 years in the eyes of potential Free Agents, specifically Zack Greinke<\/strong>, who declined the Nats trade offer 2 years ago but now could be the final piece in building a juggernaut.<\/p>\n

\n

Coincidentally, those who think this moves Harper to LEFT field may be mistaken. \u00a0Werth’s defense in right has inarguably slipped (he posted a -14.2 UZR\/150<\/a> in right this year, a significant drop from his previous decent-to-good seasons there). \u00a0I think Harper should play right field, with his gun for an arm protecting against 1st-to-3rd runners while Werth should immediately put up great UZR numbers in left. \u00a0Possible lineup in 2013 (assuming for now that LaRoche is leaving):<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Span (L) – CF<\/li>\n
  2. Werth (R) -LF<\/li>\n
  3. Zimmerman (R) – 3B<\/li>\n
  4. Harper (L) – RF<\/li>\n
  5. Morse (R) – 1B<\/li>\n
  6. Desmond (R) – SS<\/li>\n
  7. Espinosa (S) – 2B<\/li>\n
  8. Suzuki (R) – C<\/li>\n
  9. Pitcher.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    L-R-R-L-R-R-S-R for good balance. \u00a0I could also see Desmond and Werth switching spots in the lineup. \u00a0Harper to cleanup may be a bit early, but without adding another lefty bat the lineup could have too many right-handed hitters in a row.<\/p>\n

    Now, what if LaRoche re-signs? \u00a0Then suddenly this lineup has pretty good balance. \u00a0With LaRoche in the fold i’d probably go like this:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Span (L) – CF<\/li>\n
    2. Werth (R) -LF<\/li>\n
    3. Harper (L) – RF<\/li>\n
    4. Zimmerman (R) – 3B<\/li>\n
    5. LaRoche (L) – 1B<\/li>\n
    6. Desmond (R) – SS<\/li>\n
    7. Espinosa (S) – 2B<\/li>\n
    8. Suzuki (R) – C<\/li>\n
    9. Pitcher.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      That’d be a slight modification over where these guys hit last year, but would give nearly perfect lefty-righty balance.<\/p>\n

      \n

      In the end, you have to give up something you value to get something you value. \u00a0The Nats made a good trade, despite my thinking they didn’t need to make the trade in the first place. \u00a0They’re an improved team on the field for 2013.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      At least Nats fans can start understanding the team’s off-season plans a little more clearly now. \u00a0The first domino has fallen. \u00a0The Nats acquired Denard Span from Minnesota for Alex Meyer yesterday. I’ve argued against a center field acquisition for a while now. \u00a0Here’s three primary reasons why: 1. I don’t feel the Nats needed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5],"tags":[184,17,262,188,1259,164,135,449,482,391,462,385,114,115,44,110,312,175,136,708,161,129,364,235,254],"class_list":["post-5362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-minorspitching","category-natsgeneral","tag-adam-laroche","tag-aj-cole","tag-alex-meyer","tag-bj-upton","tag-brian-godwin","tag-bryce-harper","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-dave-cameron","tag-denard-span","tag-destin-hood","tag-eury-perez","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-ian-desmond","tag-jayson-werth","tag-justin-verlander","tag-keith-law","tag-ken-rosenthal","tag-michael-bourn","tag-michael-morse","tag-michael-taylor","tag-mickey-mantle","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-rob-neyer","tag-tyler-moore","tag-zack-greinke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5362","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5362"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5362\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5369,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5362\/revisions\/5369"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5362"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5362"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5362"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}