{"id":568,"date":"2011-02-04T15:14:26","date_gmt":"2011-02-04T20:14:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=568"},"modified":"2011-02-19T10:04:12","modified_gmt":"2011-02-19T15:04:12","slug":"rotation-predictions-for-the-nationals-system-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=568","title":{"rendered":"Rotation Predictions for the National’s System 2011"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Your 2011 Opening Day starter. Photo: AP\/Washington Times.<\/p><\/div>\n

I started this blog to talk about the Nationals pitching staffs on the various levels, since that’s always been my obsession with this franchise.\u00a0 However time constraints and the off season have limited my posts and analysis.\u00a0 Today, for the first time in quite a while, I’m going to write about that which this blog supposedly focuses on: Nationals pitching.<\/p>\n

Initially I was going to do an in-depth review of all 5 minor league pitching staffs for 2010 with detailed predictions for 2011.\u00a0 Now that we’re 3 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting … I’m giving up on finding the time \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

However, here’s my thoughts on who I would be putting into the rotations of each level to start 2011.\u00a0 These rotations cascade downwards from the top obviously, and assume no injuries.<\/p>\n

\n

Washington Nationals\/MLB<\/h3>\n

Prediction Livan<\/strong>, Zimmermann<\/strong>, Lannan<\/strong>, Marquis <\/strong>and Gorzelanny <\/strong>in that order.<\/p>\n

Despite some people (Ladson, Bill<\/a>) thinking that we acquired Gorzelanny to be a middle reliever, in my mind Rizzo made the acquisition because he doesn’t trust either Maya <\/strong>or Detwiler <\/strong>in the #5 slot.\u00a0 And I wouldn’t either; In 5 starts last year at the MLB level Maya looked outmatched and unable to keep MLB hitters at bay.\u00a0 I like Yunesky Maya <\/a>and think he can be a competitor in this league.\u00a0 He was probably rushed through the minor leagues last summer and wasn’t ready for what he saw in September.\u00a0 However, he fared very well in the Dominican Winter league (named best pitcher) and could change some opinions by beating out Gorzelanny for the #5 spot.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile Ross Detwiler <\/a>looks like a busted #1 pick, not able to stay healthy long enough to make an impression and (thanks to an incredibly questionable decision to call him up in Sept 2007) he’s quickly running out of options.\u00a0 He’s in a similar boat as Madison Bumgarner<\/strong>; a lanky lefty who throws across his body with some pace, making consistency difficult and making his breaking pitches too horizontal.\u00a0 Personally, i’d suggest packaging him in a trade and making the argument that he’s still a #1 overall pick who hasn’t gotten opportunity here.\u00a0 Unfortunately competing GMs know what we know and probably are not giving up decent talent to get him.<\/p>\n

This isn’t the greatest rotation in the league (most pundits easily put it in the bottom 5 right now), but it is an improvement over 2010’s opening day rotation (Lannan, Marquis, Stammen, Livan and Mock in case you forgot or blocked it from your memory).\u00a0 If Wang<\/strong> can somehow show he’s healthy and productive, then our 2012 potential rotation of Strasburg<\/strong>, Zimmermann, Lannan, Wang and decent FA could be halfway decent.<\/p>\n

\n

Syracuse\/AAA<\/h3>\n

Prediction: Maya, Detwiler, Arneson\/Stammen<\/strong>, Tatusko<\/strong>, Roark<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Syracuse <\/a>ended 2010 with this rotation (ages next to names): Chico 27, Arneson 26, Kown 28, Martis 23, Mock 27.<\/p>\n

What a difference a couple weeks makes in terms of predicting a rotation.\u00a0 We have DFA’d Martis<\/strong>, released Martin <\/strong>and outrighted Chico<\/strong>.\u00a0 Kown <\/strong>is pushing 30 and was already a minor league free agent <\/a>signing to begin with.\u00a0 Mock <\/strong>continues to have a future in this organization by virtue of his live arm, but he’s never put it together at the MLB level and nobody seems to know if it is as a reliever or a starter.\u00a0 For now I’m predicting that he ends up either being converted to a reliever or outrighted off the 40-man.<\/p>\n

The AAA rotation probably ends up being a mix of promotions from AA and spring training losers from MLB.\u00a0 I’m going under the assumption that Atilano <\/strong>gets DFA’d in the next week or so to make room for signings as they become official, and i’m assuming that Stammen is being converted to a middle reliever and is out of the starter mix.\u00a0 Additionally, Mandel <\/strong>clearly has been converted to a reliever and looks set to stay there.<\/p>\n

Arneson may be an odd-man out here as well; he’s not on the 40-man and has survived a rule 5 draft or two.\u00a0 If the Nats want to keep Stammen as a starter, I could see Stammen taking Arneson’s place here.<\/p>\n

Lastly, the two promotions from last year’s AA rotation are the two hurlers Tatusko and Roark we got from Texas in the Guzman<\/strong> trade.\u00a0 Both came over from Texas’ incredibly strong AA affilliate and both continued dominating in the Eastern League.\u00a0 In 6 starts , Tatusko had a 1.72 era, a 9k\/9 ratio and a 1.17 whip.\u00a0 Roark’s numbers were slighly worse but still better than anyone else on our AA squad.\u00a0 The only problem is that both guys are “old” for AA and may be quickly moving from “prospect” to “organizational arm.”\u00a0 I’d like to see what both guys can do in AAA.<\/p>\n

We have a couple of additional names that may show up in this mix.\u00a0 Brian Broderick <\/strong>was a rule-5 pickup from St. Louis that seems to be a long shot to crack either the MLB rotation or the bullpen.\u00a0 However in this day and age, it seems that most rule5 guys are eventually acquired instead of returned, so I can see a lower-end prospect trade for the guy if he sufficiently impresses during spring training.\u00a0 Also, Ryan Mattheus<\/strong> seems to be a favorite of the organization as well, and has signed a more-than-minimum deal for 2011.\u00a0 Chuck James<\/strong> signed on as a minor league free agent and bounced around multiple levels of our system, always pitching fantastically, but never sniffed a call up or even a second contract.\u00a0 I’d be curious to see where he ends up in 2011.<\/p>\n

2\/4\/11<\/strong> update: We have re-signed both JD Martin and Matt Chico<\/a> and invited them to spring training, which may indicate that they could factor into the AAA rotation discussion.\u00a0 The question may be; is it better to give Roark and Tatusko starts at the AAA level to see what they can do, or should we have open competition to see who shakes out?\u00a0 I think we know what we have with both Martin and Chico (as does the rest of the league, since no one claimed them upon release and nobody gave them a major league deal).\u00a0 We’ll see what happens.<\/p>\n

\n

Harrisburg\/AA<\/h3>\n

prediction: Meyers<\/strong>, Peacock<\/strong>, Milone<\/strong>, Lehman <\/strong>and Holder<\/strong><\/p>\n

Harrisburg <\/a>ended 2010 with this rotation: Peacock 22, Milone 23, Thompson 23, Roark 24, Tatusko 25.<\/p>\n

Other notable names in the rotational mix for Harrisburg in 2010 include Mandel (promoted to AAA and converting to a reliever), Brad Meyers (injured after starting the season incredibly hot), Andrew Kown (moved up to AAA but probably not being retained), and Chuck James (who signed a minor league deal and pitched great, but does not seem likely to be retained).<\/p>\n

Aaron Thompson <\/strong>(bounty for the Nick Johnson <\/strong>Trade) never lived up to his expectations as a Florida #1 draft pick and was DFA’d earlier this off season.\u00a0 He got picked up by Pittsburgh (as did Scott Olsen<\/strong>) and that may be a better place for him to attempt to advance his career.<\/p>\n

I believe we’ll see 3\/5th of the starting 2010 rotation starting in Harrisburg in 2011, based on age and the log jam of hopefuls in AAA.\u00a0 I like Meyers and hope to see him continue to dominate AA and have a healthy season.\u00a0 We’ll see the two best starters from last year’s Potomac team (Lehman and Holder) moving up to start in AA.\u00a0 I’d like to see Holder (who was considered a reach of a draft pick in 2009 by most pundits) to succeed and show his worth in 2011. This seems like a pretty strong group and will join some serious batting firepower coming up from high-A for the Harrisburg team in 2011.<\/p>\n

\n

Potomac\/High-A<\/h3>\n

prediction: Frias<\/strong>, Rosenbaum<\/strong>, Bronson<\/strong>, Fabian<\/strong>, Applebee<\/strong><\/p>\n

Potomac <\/a>ended the 2010 season with this rotation: Lehman 24, Holder 23, Frias 22, Alaniz 26, JJones 28<\/p>\n

Potomac’s rotation was all over the map in 2010 due to injuries and promotions.\u00a0 Jaime started the year
\non the DL, Morris<\/strong>, Rosenbaum and Fabian ended the\u00a0 year on the DL, which forced the continued use of
\nminor league retread Jones and effective but old Alaniz <\/strong>in starting roles.\u00a0 We’ve moved AJ Morris (who
\nwould have been Potomac’s ace last year) in this offseason for Gorzelanny, leaving open some opportunities.
\nAnd we gambled taking Jaime <\/strong>off the 40-man roster and lost, with Arizona quickly claiming him.\u00a0 That move was necessary but probably a mistake, as Jaime was a live armed guy who at one point was a top 10 Baseball America system prospect for us.\u00a0 Ah well; we had to keep a spot open for JD Martin you realize!<\/p>\n

I’m predicting that Lehman and Holder move up to AA to start based on their age and time in the minors.
\nNeither guy really dominated the Carolina league last year but Lehman features a very good K\/9 ratio and
\nHolder is a very high draft pick that the team isn’t about to give up on.\u00a0 That leaves high-A holdovers from
\n2010 Frias, Fabian and Rosenbaum to lead the line.\u00a0 Frias’ numbers were not great, but he was only 22.
\nRosenbaum was effective before going down with injury.\u00a0 The others (Bronson, Fabian and Applebee)
\nearn the spots more through a slight gap in the prospect line between the low-end leagues and high-A.<\/p>\n

I’m not as confident with these predictions, and we very well may end up seeing Lehman and Holder starting
\nout the season in High-A again, with the plan to quickly move them up to AA.<\/p>\n

\n

Hagerstown\/Low-A<\/h3>\n

Low-A prediction: Solis<\/strong>, Clegg<\/strong>, Demny<\/strong>, Ott\/Jenkins<\/strong>, Grace<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hagerstown <\/a>ended the 2010 season with this rotation: Low-A: Demny 21, Hicks 20, Bronson 23, Applebee 22, Ott 22.<\/p>\n

Other notable names in the 2010 mix included McGeary <\/strong>(tommy john surgery; what a mess for this guy.\u00a0 First round talent, bought him out of his Stanford commitment only to watch him struggle at every level.\u00a0 You have to wonder if he’ll ever return), Clegg (who was 9-3 and pitching very well for a 21st rounder before DL), Smoker <\/strong>(another Bowden toolsy draft pick whose career seems to be in the toilet), and Sammy Solis<\/strong> (two spot starts after signing in mid august as a high-profile 2nd rounder).<\/p>\n

We have traded Hicks, who didn’t have the greatest numbers last year but was only 20 pitching in a full season.\u00a0 I’ve got Bronson and Applebee in the high-A rotation for now.<\/p>\n

I think Solis’ success in the AFL may earn him a spot in high-A to start; if so switch Solis and Applebee.
\nClegg has a chance to quickly move up the ranks as well and may be in line for a quick promotion.\u00a0 Demny was young for low-A last year and had a decent first full season; i’ll bet he starts in low-A again and moves up mid-season.\u00a0 Lastly, Ott came up late last year and had two unremarkable starts but there isn’t much else to compete with him, unless one of the college-guys from short A has an amazing spring and beats him out.\u00a0\u00a0 Jenkins possibly could\u00a0 be in the mix here, being a lefty with good K\/9 rates and being a bit too old to stay in short-A.\u00a0 Finally, i’m predicting that 2010 draft pick Grace gets a look.\u00a0 He was an 8th round pick out of UCLA and didn’t have the best numbers in the GCL … but he is a lefty, he doesn’t walk a ton of people and he could be a sleeper.<\/p>\n

I have seen a couple of sites that believe we’ll be starting both A.J. Cole<\/strong> and Robbie Ray <\/strong>in full season Hagerstown.\u00a0 I have a very hard time seeing that; both basically lost the entirety of 2010 in terms of professional development by waiting until August 15th sign, meaning that they both got minimal innings.\u00a0 I think they stay in Florda as camp breaks and start in the GCL.\u00a0 See below…<\/p>\n

\n

Short-A (Vermont last year, Auburn this year) and GCL\/extended spring<\/h3>\n

Prediction: Cole, Ray, Hanks, Meza, KLopez, King, Encarnation <\/strong>and 3-4 starters that we draft in 2011.<\/p>\n

Vermont <\/a>ended 2010 with this rotation: Jenkins 22, Hansen 21, Swynenberg 21, Jordan 21, McKenzie 21\/Bates 22
\nThe GCL <\/a>ended 2010 with this rotation: Hanks 20, Meza 20, KLopez 20, King 20, Encarnacion 21<\/p>\n

There was not a whole lot to like about Vermont’s 2010 rotation.\u00a0 The four guys who got the most starts
\nall had almost identical numbers in terms of ERA, Whip and K\/9 (for me the three numbers most worth
\nlooking at for minor leaguers).\u00a0 They were all in the mid 4s in ERA with decent K\/9 rates.\u00a0 It is hard to see
\nany of them really having an impact; i’ll guess that most of them get converted to middle relief and move up
\nto comprise Hagerstown’s bullpen or repeat the Short-A season to determine if they have a future in professional baseball in general.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile the GCL saw a very high number of starts go to rehabbing starters in 2010.\u00a0 By my count, 14 of the 56 starts in GCL last year were either rehab starts or “extended spring training” starts for guys that
\nwere headed for upper levels.\u00a0 This may have been due to the lack of young starting pitcher prospects available to us, since the starts we did get from prospects in the GCL (Hanks, Meza, KLopez, King) were as unimpressive as the starts we got out of Vermont.<\/p>\n

In many ways both rotations really depend on who we draft in June, since both leagues essentially start just after the draft.\u00a0 The higher-end\/older draft picks fill up the short-A roster, while the younger\/lower-end draft picks form the GCL roster.\u00a0 I’m guessing that both the starlet high school arms out of 2010’s draft (Cole and Ray) start in extended spring and then move up to short-A when they’re ready.\u00a0 I do not believe they’ll start in Hagerstown based on the lack of professional innings in 2010.\u00a0 They’ll be initially supplimented by the four 20-yr olds in GCL last year until solutions make themselves apparent.\u00a0 If guys like Meza, King, Lopez and Encarnation do not improve, they’ll soon be converted to relievers or outright released to make room for the next set of draft picks.<\/p>\n

\n

Thats it.\u00a0 From an organizational perspective, it seems that outside of Ray and Cole we have very few starter prospects anywhere below low-A, and that our pipeline seems thin right now.\u00a0 Perhaps something to think about during the 2011 draft, which is very college-arm heavy and we have 3 early draft picks. Hopefully we identify some fast-moving arms and continue the improvement of the system in general.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I started this blog to talk about the Nationals pitching staffs on the various levels, since that’s always been my obsession with this franchise.\u00a0 However time constraints and the off season have limited my posts and analysis.\u00a0 Today, for the first time in quite a while, I’m going to write about that which this blog […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-minorspitching"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=568"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":577,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568\/revisions\/577"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}