With the slew of off-season activity nearly complete, I’ve updated some of the tracking worksheets that I maintain related to the Nats roster. \u00a0From non-tenders, FA signings and re-signings, trades and Arbitration settlements a lot has changed in terms of the Nats payroll, expected WAR estimates and 40-man options statuses. \u00a0All these resources are now updated in Google Docs. \u00a0Links (which should also be along the right-hand side of the page):<\/p>\n
Here’s the implications that the last few months have had in each case:<\/p>\n
Nats WAR Estimate Impact<\/strong>: We last visited this topic on 1\/3\/13<\/a> and I had a 2013 fWAR best case estimate of 57.6, equating to a 103 win season. \u00a0Now we’ve replaced Michael Morse<\/strong>‘s 3-win estimate with Adam LaRoche<\/strong>‘s 3.5 win estimate and added in Rafael Soriano<\/strong>‘s 1.2 fWAR estimate and are looking at a fWAR estimate of 59.1 and a 105 win capable team. \u00a0As with before, this doesn’t mean i’m predicting 105 wins; i’m saying that if everyone plays to their potential and nobody gets hurt, its hard not to see this being a 105 win team as constructed.<\/p>\n Nats 2013 Payroll Impact<\/strong>: When we last visited this topic on 12\/3\/12,<\/a> we were sitting on a 2013 estimated payroll of just $88M. \u00a0Since then, we re-signed LaRoche, signed Dan Haren, <\/strong>stunningly signed Soriano and settled a slew of pre-arbitration settlements (most of which seemed to trend higher than MLB’s estimates for the players). \u00a0I’m now estimating the Nats 2013 payroll to be $121,823,500 (but see the caveat in the next paragraph). \u00a0There are still two payroll figures to be announced\/decided: Zach Duke<\/strong>‘s 2013 pay has yet to be disclosed (I’m using an estimate of $1.5M) and Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong> was not able to settle with the team ahead of the filing deadline (i’m using an estimate of $4.9M for him). \u00a0The team filed at $4.6M while Zimmermann filed at $5.8M, meaning they’re $1.2M apart at current. \u00a0The midpoint would be $5.2M, meaning that the overall payroll could creep even higher and hit $122M.<\/p>\n Coincidentally, I’m not sure how to treat Soriano’s deal from a payroll perspective. \u00a02 years, $28M but as we’ve learned half that money is deferred. \u00a0The spreadsheet shows it as a $14M aav contract but he’s only being paid $7M this year. \u00a0With the deferred money, the calculated AAV of the contract is only in the $11M\/year range. \u00a0Cots shows $14M\/year right now on its main page, but it hasn’t fixed its internal google XLS’s yet. \u00a0I think the right way to go would be to show $7M being paid this year and next, and then when the deferred payments kick in show them as the annual $2M payments that they’ll be. \u00a0So maybe the current payroll isn’t $121M but closer to $114M. \u00a0I’ll be curious to see how the sites like Cots and Usatoday (the two main sites that publish team payroll figures) treat this contract going forward.<\/p>\n