{"id":6283,"date":"2013-03-29T10:38:31","date_gmt":"2013-03-29T14:38:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=6283"},"modified":"2014-09-08T09:06:09","modified_gmt":"2014-09-08T13:06:09","slug":"my-2013-fantasy-baseball-team","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=6283","title":{"rendered":"My 2013 Fantasy Baseball Team"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_4062\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/kempmatt_ladodgertalk.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4062\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-4062\" title=\"kempmatt_ladodgertalk.com\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/kempmatt_ladodgertalk.com_-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4062\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Kemp reacts to being Boss&#39; first round pick in my fantasy league for the 2nd  year running. Photo unknown via ladodgertalk.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Editor&#8217;s note: feel free to stop reading now if you don&#8217;t want to read 4,400+ words on my fantasy baseball team. \u00a0I won&#8217;t blame you for it. \u00a0For those of you who do play fantasy, as I made picks I wrote down who I was considering and who was available per each pick to try to give some context for the pick. \u00a0I&#8217;ll insert a &#8220;jump&#8221; line here so that RSS readers don&#8217;t have to see this whole massive post \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>(For the really bored; my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=890\">2011 Fantasy team<\/a> and my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4059\">2012 Fantasy team<\/a> draft analysis. \u00a0These links are interesting if only for the guys who went in the early rounds then who are chaff now. \u00a0Neither team fared very well; I finished 9th of 12 in 2012, 7th of 10 in 2011. \u00a0In both cases debilitating injuries to my upper-end draft picks killed my teams).<\/p>\n<p>League overview: 12 team 6&#215;6 head to head. \u00a0I had the 8th of 12 picks. \u00a0Your categories are:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Hitting: Runs, HRs, RBIs, SBs, Batting Average and OPS.<\/li>\n<li>Pitching: Wins, Saves, K&#8217;s, ERA, WHIP and Losses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Positions are conventional Fantasy: C,1B,2B,3B,SS, 3 OFs and a util guy. \u00a02 SP, 2 RP, 3 other Ps, 5 bench guys and a DL spot for a 21-man roster\/21-round draft.<\/p>\n<p>These are the categories we had in 2011; in 2012 we replaced Losses with Holds to a very bad effect; chasing Holds in baseball is worse than chasing Saves. \u00a0There was so much animosity towards the Hold category that we just went back to Losses (which one person in particular in the league rails against, but that&#8217;s more or less because he had starters in 2011 who would get unlucky losses all the time). \u00a0One last note; to prevent pitcher &#8220;churn and burn&#8221; there is a transaction limit of 65 moves for the season.<\/p>\n<p>My draft strategy:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Starting Pitcher focused; I like starters (hey, its a blog that&#8217;s supposed to be about pitching)<\/li>\n<li>Focus on NL, high K\/9 starters only as much as possible<\/li>\n<li>Get the minimum number of hitters, and get them early to get the best players available.<\/li>\n<li>Wait on first base if you don&#8217;t get the right fit<\/li>\n<li>Do not chase Catchers<\/li>\n<li>Get a high end closer if they&#8217;re available, but don&#8217;t over spend. \u00a0Do not punt on closers.<\/li>\n<li>As opposed to years past, do try to get as many closers as possible.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We had at least two people drafting almost entirely off of Yahoo&#8217;s ranks, which alters the draft in a very important way; if there&#8217;s a guy on your Yahoo ranks who is just sitting out there seemingly passed over, you have to plan ahead and grab him before the autodrafters get him. \u00a0This also works out for known injury issues (think <strong>Roy Halladay<\/strong> this year, who people avoided like the plague).<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s my team, round by round:<\/p>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>1st round (#8 overall): Matt Kemp OF-LAD<\/li>\n<li>2nd round (#17 overall): Justin Verlander SP-Det<\/li>\n<li>3rd round (#32 overall): Yoenis Cespedes OF-Oak<\/li>\n<li>4th Round (#41 overall): Jason Heyward OF-ATL<\/li>\n<li>5th Round (#56 overall): Yu Darvish SP-TEX<\/li>\n<li>6th round (#65 overall): R.A. Dickey SP-TOR<\/li>\n<li>7th round (#80 overall): Kris Medlen SP-ATL<\/li>\n<li>8th Round (#89 overall): Carlos Santana C\/1B-CLE<\/li>\n<li>9th Round (#104): Ike Davis 1B-NYM<\/li>\n<li>10th Round (#113): David Freese 3B-STL<\/li>\n<li>11th Round (#128): Sergio Romo RP-SF<\/li>\n<li>12th Round (#137): Rickie Weeks 2b-MIL<\/li>\n<li>13th Round (#152): Casey Jannsen RP-TOR<\/li>\n<li>14th Round (#161): Danny Espinosa 2B\/SS-WAS<\/li>\n<li>15th Round (#176): Jarrod Parker SP-OAK<\/li>\n<li>16th Round (#185): Brandon League RP-LAD<\/li>\n<li>17th round (#200): Edinson Volquez SP-SD<\/li>\n<li>18th Round (#209): Alexi Ogando SP\/RP-Tex<\/li>\n<li>19th Round (#224): Brandon Belt 1B-SF<\/li>\n<li>20th Round (#233): Wade Miley SP-Ari<\/li>\n<li>21st Round (#248): Vinnie Pestano RP-CLE<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>Below are my round-by-round picks with discussion. \u00a0Yahoo O-Ranks are given; this is Yahoo&#8217;s rank for the player for the 2013 season. \u00a0Average Draft Rank (ADP) is listed as per\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.mockdraftcentral.com\/report_adp.jsp\">MockDraftCentral&#8217;s ratings<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">1st round (#8 overall)<\/span>:\u00a0<strong>Matt Kemp<\/strong> OF-LAD (Yahoo #5, ADP #5); I got good ADP value in the first round, which is tough to do. \u00a0Sitting at the 8th pick I was hoping to have <strong>Joey Votto<\/strong> fall to me (he did not). \u00a0If the draft had gone Yahoo chalk i&#8217;d have gotten <strong>Carlos Gonzalez<\/strong>. \u00a0As it turned out, Vito reached for <strong>Albert Pujols<\/strong> so I could choose between Kemp, CarGo or to reach for the likes of\u00a0<strong>Giancarlo Stanton<\/strong> or the top pitchers on the board. \u00a0Frankly, I thought that drafting one of the big-3 starters was too early at #8. \u00a0I had made a conscious decision to avoid Stanton (I like him, don&#8217;t get me wrong, but I think with zero lineup protection he&#8217;s just not going to produce this year), and CarGo always seems like an injury concern. \u00a0I had the #1 overall pick last year and took Kemp as well; he promptly got hurt and killed my team. \u00a0Can it happen two years in a row? \u00a0Kemp prior to 2012 was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/k\/kempma01.shtml\">incredibly durable<\/a> and we&#8217;re going to hope he returns to form in 2013. \u00a0 I expect him to push for another 40\/40 season like he just missed in 2011 and to return to being the top fantasy producer he can be. \u00a0 In the end, I&#8217;m slightly worried about this pick but you can&#8217;t pass up Kemp falling to #8 when he was #1 overall last year.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">2nd round (#17 overall)<\/span>: <strong>Justin Verlander<\/strong> SP-Det (Yahoo #13, ADP #10): I have to admit, I don&#8217;t like to draft pitching TOO early. \u00a0I was initially targeting <strong>Jose Bautista<\/strong> here but he went early. \u00a0I REALLY wanted <strong>Bryce Harper<\/strong> here but he went the pick before mine. \u00a0So I was left with a choice between Verlander and <strong>Clayton Kershaw<\/strong> (<strong>Strasburg<\/strong> had done a few picks earlier &#8230; clear homer pick from a guy in the league who drafted like half the Nats team last year). \u00a0Kershaw versus Verlander? \u00a0They had nearly identical stats last year and were #7 and #8 respectively in Yahoo&#8217;s 2012 standings. \u00a0Normally AL versus NL would have led me to take Kershaw &#8230; but I went with Verlander because I think his division is going to be slightly easier, and I think Verlander was slightly unlucky last year to &#8220;only&#8221; get 17 wins. \u00a0Detroit is improved in 2013 and seems like a good bet to win quite a few more games than 2012, which will translate to more stats for Verlander. \u00a0Hey, any time you can take the best pitcher in the game in the 2nd round, you have to.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">3rd round (#32 overall)<\/span>: <strong>Yoenis Cespedes<\/strong> OF-Oak (Yahoo #27, ADP #42): There was a big discrepancy between ADP and Yahoo&#8217;s ranks for Cespedes, probably because of the park he plays in and his difficulties staying healthy in 2012. \u00a0Regardless, I&#8217;m taking the risk. \u00a0I like this guy&#8217;s power and overall abilities, I think he&#8217;s an easy 20\/20 guy and could push for 30\/30 if he plays the full year. \u00a0I wanted <strong>Edwin Encarnation<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>Josh Hamilton<\/strong> or (especially) <strong>Buster Posey<\/strong> at this spot but they were all snapped up. \u00a0I was choosing between Cespedes, <strong>Ian Kinsler<\/strong> and <strong>Jason Heyward<\/strong> here. \u00a0I&#8217;ve had and been disappointed with Kinsler in years past and thought Heyward would have been a slight overdraft here.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">4th Round (#41 overall)<\/span>: <strong>Jason Heyward<\/strong> OF-ATL (Yahoo #30, ADP #28): Well, when the pick came back around to me and one of the guys I was considering for the 3rd round pick was available in the 4th, it was an easy decision. \u00a0I was targeting <strong>Matt Cain<\/strong> but he got snapped up a few picks before this. \u00a0I was considering between Heyward and the likes of <strong>Adam Jones<\/strong>, <strong>Jacoby Ellsbury<\/strong> and <strong>Paul Goldschmidt<\/strong> before settling in Heyward as having the best value. \u00a0I don&#8217;t like Baltimore players in general (AL East; lots of good pitching there), Ellsbury is a massive injury headache and I thought perhaps Goldschmidt would survive til the 5th round (I was wrong). \u00a0I got Heyward and I think I got really good value for him (11-13 spots after he should have been drafted by both Yahoo and ADP: that&#8217;s an entire round in a 12-team league).<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">5th Round (#56 overall)<\/span>: <strong>Yu Darvish<\/strong> SP-TEX (Yahoo #46, ADP #51): I was targeting <strong>R.A. Dickey<\/strong> for this pick as the round unfolded; I lost Goldschmidt, someone reached for <strong>Craig Kimbrel<\/strong> and someone else snapped up <strong>Ben Zobrist<\/strong>, so Darvish was sitting there as the Best Player available for the price. \u00a0I got him 10 picks later than Yahoo&#8217;s ranks and right about on his ADP. \u00a0I know this goes against my AL starter philosophy but consider this; Darvish had 16 wins and 221Ks for Texas last year, excelling in April and September but struggling in between. \u00a0Does this sound like a guy who was struggling to make the transition to the US and to 4-day rest starts? \u00a0Perhaps. \u00a0I think he&#8217;s settled down and will have a much improved 2nd season in the majors (<strong>Daisuke Matsuzaka<\/strong>&#8216;s 2nd year in the US? \u00a018-3 improved from 15-12; sometimes NPB pitchers need a season to adjust). \u00a0I like Darvish&#8217;s arm, he already gets a ton of strikeouts AND he gets Houston&#8217;s 120 loss team for 2013 as a divisional rival. \u00a0I think he&#8217;s a stud for 2013. \u00a0I had targeted him before the draft and I got him.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">6th round (#65 overall)<\/span>: <strong>R.A. Dickey<\/strong> SP-TOR (Yahoo #54, ADP #58): As with Heyward, when a guy you were considering the pick before is still sitting there, you kinda have to take him. \u00a0Also on the board here for consideration was <strong>Madison Bumgarner<\/strong>, <strong>CC Sabathia<\/strong> and <strong>Jason Kipnis<\/strong>. \u00a0I&#8217;ve never liked Sabathia in fantasy; he takes too many 5-6 run poundings while absorbing a win for my liking. \u00a0Bumgarner is good and I like him &#8230; but he&#8217;s inconsisent. \u00a0Kipnis wasn&#8217;t exactly knocking my socks off to draft. \u00a0Meanwhile the #5 overall performer in Yahoo 2012 and the NL Cy Young award winner is still sitting there in the 6th round; what&#8217;s the risk? \u00a0Honestly, I don&#8217;t see why people are down on Dickey for 2013. \u00a0What makes anyone think his 2012 season was that much of a fluke and that he can&#8217;t repeat it in 2013? \u00a0He led the league in strikeouts and was a 20 game winner for a .500 team; even if he moves to the AL it isn&#8217;t as if he&#8217;s going to that much tougher a division (AL East versus NL East in 2013? \u00a0could be nearly a wash with the Yankees and Boston down years). \u00a0Plus he&#8217;s going to a better team that can get him more wins. \u00a0Yes he&#8217;s 38, but he trends like a knuckleballer who has mastered the pitch after working on it for a couple years. \u00a0He isn&#8217;t a flamethrower on his last legs who will drop off a cliff. \u00a0He can continue to throw 80mph knucklers for another 6 seasons (see <strong>Wakefield, Tim<\/strong>). \u00a0Let me put it a different way; if someone told you that the previous year&#8217;s Cy Young winner was available in the 6th round, you&#8217;d be ecstatic right?<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">7th round (#80 overall)<\/span>: <strong>Kris Medlen<\/strong> SP-ATL (Yahoo #68, ADP #72): I thought Medlen was going to get picked just before me by the Atlanta-homer fan in our league &#8230; but I was given a reprieve when he decided to fill a missing position instead. \u00a0 This is one of the few guys I had really targeted pre-draft and really wanted, and I got him, for good value (12 spots later than he should have gone by Yahoo chalk). \u00a0He&#8217;s another one that I don&#8217;t understand why he&#8217;s ranked so low; he had a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/m\/medlekr01.shtml\">256 ERA+<\/a> last year!! \u00a0 For the 2nd half he was as close to unhittable as any pitcher in recent memory. \u00a0What evidence is there that he&#8217;s not going to continue where he left off in 2013? He&#8217;ll be 2nd year back from TJ surgery with impeccable control (5+ K\/BB ratio). \u00a0The only arguments that I&#8217;ve heard are either centered around his BABIP (which was low) and the old &#8220;he can&#8217;t do it forever&#8221; arguments. \u00a0Well, even if he pitches half as well as he did last year, that&#8217;d still be a 125 ERA+ pitcher for a 95-win team. \u00a0I&#8217;ll take it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A quick note here before going on; through 7 rounds I look at my team and realize I now have 3 Outfielders and 4 Starting pitchers. \u00a0It is at this point that I realize that perhaps my pitching-heavy strategy may be at the severe detriment to my infield. \u00a0I need to start filling the team with hitters but honestly by this point nearly every valuable 2nd, SS or 3rd baseman is gone. \u00a0I&#8217;m not worried about 1B; I think you can get good 1B value later in the draft (as we&#8217;ll eventually see). \u00a0But I need to start filling out the team. \u00a03B is notoriously weak right now and there&#8217;s nobody out there.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">8th Round (#89 overall)<\/span>: <strong>Carlos Santana<\/strong> C\/1B-CLE (Yahoo #75, ADP #57); I love Santana here, though I&#8217;ll admit that I was looking at <strong>Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong> and would have taken him had he been available (he was snapped up just before I picked). \u00a0I think Zimmermann is going to be really, really good this year; he&#8217;s already an underrated guy but the news of his evolving change-up could turn him into a league Ace. \u00a0Meanwhile, Santana&#8217;s ADP discrepancy versus Yahoo&#8217;s ranking should tell you how high pundits are on him; he&#8217;s still young, he hit 27 homers in 2011 and he could be a monster. \u00a0Catcher but also 1B eligible in case I decide to play some catcher waiver wire games like I did last year.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">9th Round (#104)<\/span>: <strong>Ike Davis<\/strong> 1B-NYM (Yahoo #85, ADP #108). \u00a0Davis was one of the sleeper 1B guys I had targeted before the draft; he his 32 homers in 2012 despite a BABIP in the .240 range (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/statss.aspx?playerid=8433&amp;position=1B\">.246 to be exact<\/a>). \u00a0Most of the projection systems have him hitting in the .260 range with the same power in 2013, which I also believe is possible. \u00a0 I had targeted Davis for this round for a bit and got my man; I wasn&#8217;t really considering anyone else here.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">10th Round (#113)<\/span>: <strong> David Freese<\/strong> 3B-STL (Yahoo #95, ADP #130): I was hoping that <strong>Chase Headley<\/strong> would have fallen to me but he didn&#8217;t. \u00a0I was also looking at my first closer (<strong>Joe Nathan<\/strong>) but he went a few picks ahead. \u00a0I took Freese, knowing he may start the season on the DL (he has a strained lower back; not a very serious injury). \u00a0I like Freese overall; a good solid hitter in the middle of St. Louis&#8217; order. \u00a0129 OPS+ last year, right in his prime (age 30). \u00a0 With a full season he could be a 25-homer, 90-RBI .300 hitter. \u00a0You can do worse. \u00a0I think his ADP was dropped because of this injury while Yahoo&#8217;s rankings hadn&#8217;t taken it into account. \u00a0He&#8217;s an injury risk regardless; he was hurt last year too. \u00a0I&#8217;ll have to keep an eye on him. \u00a0(<strong>Update<\/strong>: indeed he&#8217;s on the DL to start the season so I&#8217;m burning a waiver wire pick right now, getting best 3B available. \u00a0The injury notes say he&#8217;ll try to be back for the St. Louis home opener on 4\/8\/13, so perhaps its a quick DL trip).<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">11th Round (#128)<\/span>: <strong>Sergio Romo<\/strong> RP-SF (Yahoo #136, ADP #124): Having missed out on Nathan, my strategy for this round was simple; Best Available Closer. \u00a0Hence picking a guy in Romo who was over valued per his Yahoo\/ADP rank. \u00a0At this point 9 of the 30 named closers in the league were off the board, including at least the first two tiers of guys. \u00a0 In a 12-team league its nearly impossible to get 5 full time closers as I used to do; my target was to get 3. \u00a0Romo was the best guy available, has great numbers, doesn&#8217;t seem to be in trouble of losing his spot now that <strong>Brian Wilson<\/strong> has been released. \u00a0I&#8217;ll take the closer for the defending WS champ.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">12th Round (#137)<\/span>: <strong>Rickie Weeks<\/strong> 2b-MIL (Yahoo #105, ADP #123): I need a 2nd baseman and the pickings were slim. \u00a0To make matters worse there was a mini-run on 2nd baseman just before my pick, costing me my targeted <strong>Chase Utley <\/strong>who (despite other people&#8217;s concerns) I think can have a bounce back season in 2013. \u00a0I picked up Weeks instead, perhaps against my better wishes. \u00a0I took Weeks in the FOURTH round in 2011, amazing. \u00a0He was an injury wreck in 2011 and a disappointment in 2012. \u00a0 I don&#8217;t have high hopes on him for 2013 frankly, but I did get him 2 rounds later than he should have gone (so at least I got good fantasy value). \u00a0If he can bounce back to anything close to his 2010 numbers, I&#8217;ll have a massive steal here.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">13th Round (#152)<\/span>: <strong>Casey Jannsen<\/strong> RP-TOR (Yahoo #231, ADP #222): clearly a reach based on the ranks. I was looking directly at NY Mets starter <strong>Matt Harvey<\/strong>, who was sitting out there with a big circle on his name and he got taken just before me, the third time that had happened. \u00a0So I went with Best Closer Available again, and that was Jannsen. \u00a0 His low rankings are probably due to question marks about him getting the closer job, but so far all indications are that he&#8217;s recovered from off-season surgery and is pitching well in the spring. \u00a0He was the best closer available on a team that isn&#8217;t set to lose 100 games so I grabbed him. \u00a0All the closer-tracking sites still have Jannsen in line for the job over <strong>Sergio Santos<\/strong>; lets hope they&#8217;re right.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">14th Round (#161)<\/span>: <strong>Danny Espinosa<\/strong> 2B\/SS-WAS (Yahoo #154, ADP #134): I wanted <strong>Derek Jeter<\/strong> or especially <strong>Marco Scutaro<\/strong>, two guys who are both being severely under-appreciated on draft day. \u00a0Lost them both just before my pick. \u00a0So I got the best available shortstop-eligible guy left. \u00a0I briefly considered <strong>J.J. Hardy<\/strong>, who I carried most of last year, but Espinosa provides nearly as many homers as Hardy plus SBs (he has nearly been a 20\/20 guy each of his first two seasons). \u00a0I have a sense that this could be Espinosa&#8217;s &#8220;<strong>Ian Desmond<\/strong>&#8221; season where he finally figures it out. \u00a0Positional flexibility helps too. \u00a0I was also looking at <strong>Nick Swisher<\/strong> here, but opted to get my SS filled instead of my utility, and I had my mind on a good late-round utility guy (more on that later). \u00a0One additional note: some of my competitors know of this blog, and wanted me to note that this particular draft pick &#8220;was met with indifference&#8221; from the room. \u00a0Fair enough.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">15th Round (#176)<\/span>: <strong>Jarrod Parker<\/strong> SP-OAK (Yahoo #178, ADP #165): I had my heart set on <strong>Brett Anderson<\/strong> here: taken two picks ahead of me by Jamos, who hadn&#8217;t taken a single SP in the first 14 rounds and was now filling out his team and was swiping all my sleeper starters (see the 20th round for more of the same). \u00a0After losing Anderson, I was also looking at perhaps grabbing the surprising <strong>Josh Reddick<\/strong> here for a great utility bat; nope, grabbed just before me. \u00a0So I punted and took Oakland&#8217;s #2 starter instead of Oakland&#8217;s #1 starter. \u00a0Parker was good last year; 13-8, 3.47 ERA in his 23-yr old rookie season pitching in that massive park. \u00a0He should improve in 2013.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">16th Round (#185):<\/span> <strong>Brandon League<\/strong> RP-LAD (Yahoo #220, ADP #208): You can&#8217;t really look at ranks versus draft value when it comes to chasing the last few decent closers. \u00a0League may have a ton of great bullpen competition for the Dodgers, but League also just signed a 3yr\/$22.5M contract and you&#8217;d have to think he&#8217;s going to be closing for that kind of money. \u00a0As with Romo and Janssen, I&#8217;ll take the closer on a team projected to win 90 games and make the playoffs anyday.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">17th round (#200)<\/span>: <strong>Edinson Volquez<\/strong> SP-SD (Yahoo #713, ADP #316): Another odd case of wild ranking discrepancies; my starter ranks from sources outside of Yahoo had Volquez at about the 55th best pitcher out there. \u00a0I took him basically because he&#8217;s the best pitcher in San Diego, a cavern of a ball-park that usually shaves a point off of starter ERAs. \u00a0He isn&#8217;t that great, wasn&#8217;t that great last year, and may very well be the first player I drop after I look at the waiver wire versus prospects and\/or position players I like. \u00a0But it always seems some random pitcher for San Diego puts up fantastic numbers year over year.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">18th Round (#209)<\/span>: <strong>Alexi Ogando<\/strong> SP\/RP-Tex (Yahoo #224, ADP #199): I like the value pick here; I&#8217;ve had Ogando before; in 2011 he was a very good starter, and I&#8217;m expecting that performance again in 2013. \u00a0This could be a steal of a pick, grabbing his electric arm pitching as a starter for a playoff-contending team. \u00a0That being said, I was targeting <strong>Ross Detwiler<\/strong> here but he got snapped up a few picks ahead of me.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>At this point in the draft, its getting late, the ranks and ADPs are long out the window. \u00a0I wanted one last \u00a0hitter, one last starter and\/or possibly to take a shot for one of the remaining closers. \u00a0I wrote down three names I wanted: <strong>Brandon Belt<\/strong>, <strong>Homer Bailey<\/strong> and <strong>Shelby Miller<\/strong>. \u00a0Jamos bet me that I wouldn&#8217;t get but one of those three names and he was right. \u00a0As mentioned above, Jamos was waiting til the later rounds to grab starters and he nabbed Miller before I could. \u00a0Meanwhile someone else grabbed Bailey, forcing me to change up the whole late-round strategy.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">19th Round (#224)<\/span>: <strong>Brandon Belt<\/strong> 1B-SF (Yahoo #184, ADP #258): They say not to look at spring training numbers, but it is of note that Belt has now hit more homers in spring training than he did all of last season. \u00a0He&#8217;s long been on prospect and &#8220;up-and-comer&#8221; lists, but San Francisco has made it tough on him to get at-bats. \u00a0Entering 2013 though he&#8217;s the unquestioned starter at first for the Giants, no <strong>Aubrey Huff<\/strong> to steal games this year. \u00a0 I targeted him starting in the mid-rounds as a great option for a late round utility guy and grabbed him. \u00a0Also under consideration here was Bailey (taken) and <strong>Alfonso Soriano<\/strong> (taken 2 picks ahead of me by homer-Cub fan Erwin, who probably took him as I joked that I was going to take him. \u00a0Bad on me; I probably bragged my way out of getting Soriano and his sneaky 32 homer\/100 rbi production).<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">20th Round (#233)<\/span>: <strong>Wade Miley<\/strong> SP-Ari (Yahoo #233, ADP #196): I gambled on Miller still being available, lost out on that gamble by 2 picks, and grabbed Miley instead; #83 Yahoo producer last year in a near-Rookie of the Year campaign. \u00a0Why is he so low in 2013?? \u00a0I mean, guys with 125 ERA+&#8217;s don&#8217;t exactly grow on trees. \u00a0Nonetheless, I think he&#8217;s great value for the 20th round, getting the 2nd best starter on a team that many think could sneak up on the other teams in the NL West.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">21st Round (#248)<\/span>: <strong>Vinnie Pestano<\/strong> RP-CLE (Yahoo #263, ADP #307): After my Miller gambit failed, I was looking at Best Available Starters but they kept getting nabbed. \u00a0<strong>Jaime Garcia<\/strong>, gone. \u00a0<strong>Trevor Cahill<\/strong> gone. \u00a0 I grabbed Pestano because, at least for moment, he&#8217;s the closer in Cleveland while <strong>Chris Perez<\/strong> is on the mend. \u00a0 News reports today indicate that Perez has just started throwing for the first time since February; will Cleveland rush him back in a week&#8217;s time to be their opening day closer (unlikely) or will they give him a quick DL trip to gain some strength (more likely). \u00a0If Perez is active on opening day, I&#8217;ll dump Pestano and try to grab one of the closer-by-committee guys out there for teams that are starting without an established closer. \u00a0Or take a look at some of the middle infield choices out there to play some matchup games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>So, here&#8217;s your team by position:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>C: Santana (1B eligible)<\/li>\n<li>1B: Davis, Belt<\/li>\n<li>2B: Weeks<\/li>\n<li>SS: Espinosa (2B eligible)<\/li>\n<li>3B: Freese<\/li>\n<li>OF: Kemp, Cespedes, Heyward<\/li>\n<li>SP: Verlander, Darvish, Dickey, Medlen, Parker, Volquez, Ogando<\/li>\n<li>RP: Romo, Janssen, League, Pestano<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Team summary<\/span>: Well, I really like my pitching. \u00a0I&#8217;ve got 4 &#8220;Aces,&#8221; among the 20 best guys in the league. \u00a0I&#8217;ve got 5 guys who should be opening day starters. \u00a0I&#8217;m happy with my closers for the rounds in which I got them and the teams they play for. \u00a0I like my outfield; I think I&#8217;ve got a ton of power and speed. \u00a0My infield is weak, and could be a big trouble spot for me. \u00a0I may have to go dumpster diving for a backup 3B if Freese sticks on the DL for any length of time. \u00a0 I think I got carried away on the starters and should have forced myself to lay off of them in the 3rd-5th rounds and picked up middle infielders instead. \u00a0I&#8217;ve got great power potential; almost every guy on there is at least a 20 homer capable guy. \u00a0And i&#8217;ve got speed potential; all my OFs plus Weeks and Espinosa are 20-SB threats at least.<\/p>\n<p>I don&#8217;t think i&#8217;m as confident in this team as I have been in years past, and looking at some of the other teams drafted I&#8217;m worried. \u00a0One of the guys who depended on autodraft has a fantastic team, well balanced up and down. \u00a0Which is a shame, because normally he drafts god-awful teams :-).<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Draft Summary<\/span>:<\/p>\n<p>Part of the reason I have so many starters is because I had targeted a number of these guys before the draft and felt that I had to take them. \u00a0I got guys like Dickey, Darvish, Medlen, Cespedes, Ike Davis, Carlos Santana and Belt who I had wanted before the draft.<\/p>\n<p>I missed on some guys I really coveted; Encarnation, Batista, Goldschmidt, Zobrist, Scherzer, and Zimmermann were names I wanted but missed on. \u00a0I really, really wanted Prado this year but he went way earlier than I thought he would. \u00a0I really wanted younger guys Harvey and Miller in the later rounds but just missed on them. \u00a0I was also targeting Reddick and Morse in the teen rounds but they both went several rounds earlier than I thought they would. \u00a0And as I said earlier, I *really* wanted Harper in the 2nd round. \u00a0That was a disappointment.<\/p>\n<p>I probably made a couple of mistakes, namely forgetting about <strong>Kyle Lohse<\/strong>, who signed a couple days before the draft and was still on the board in the very late rounds. \u00a0 <strong>Jeremey Hellickson<\/strong> was available way late and I was surprised when I heard his name; could have grabbed him too. \u00a0And as discussed above I waited too long for Miller and Bailey. \u00a0Lastly next year i&#8217;m going to change the way I do running notes ahead of the draft; my ranking sheets were far different from Yahoos and I think it cost me (see the Volquez pick).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Best pick<\/span>: Verlander in the 2nd round, four to seven spots after he should have been picked.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Worst Pick<\/span>: Probably Volquez; I think I should have just followed my gut and taken one of the starters I wanted in that round instead of gambling.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">First guys dropped<\/span>: Probably Pestano when Perez comes back and then Volquez if he doesn&#8217;t start decently.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Best Upside\/Chances of Overperforming<\/span>: Ogando and Dickey. \u00a0Ogando could easily be a 15 game winner from the 18th round, while Dickey was the 5th best fantasy player last year and i got him in round 6. \u00a0That&#8217;s just crazy.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Worst Downside\/Chances of Underperforming<\/span>: Probably Cespedes and perhaps Medlen, maybe Weeks: Cespedes lost time to injuries in May and June, plays in a big park, plays in a tough division. \u00a0Nobody thinks Medlen can be the pitcher he was in 2012.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Editor&#8217;s note: feel free to stop reading now if you don&#8217;t want to read 4,400+ words on my fantasy baseball team. \u00a0I won&#8217;t blame you for it. \u00a0For those of you who do play fantasy, as I made picks I wrote down who I was considering and who was available per each pick to try [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2592],"tags":[485,123,1264,130,1049,1209,1668,1216,868,1053,164,1046,1659,1644,1665,47,1213,399,1670,426,961,314,135,310,354,589,1660,795,892,114,794,686,281,324,872,1578,997,1663,1661,1210,478,592,43,404,238,532,44,970,231,894,875,317,1666,145,214,1662,781,1664,51,119,1052,1667,1333,38,226,1016,384,1669,1658,1178,393,300],"class_list":["post-6283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fantasy","tag-adam-jones","tag-albert-pujols","tag-alexi-ogando","tag-alfonso-soriano","tag-aubrey-huff","tag-ben-zobrist","tag-brandon-belt","tag-brandon-league","tag-brett-anderson","tag-brian-wilson","tag-bryce-harper","tag-buster-posey","tag-carlos-gonzalez","tag-carlos-santana","tag-casey-jannsen","tag-cc-sabathia","tag-chase-headley","tag-chase-utley","tag-chris-perez","tag-clayton-kershaw","tag-craig-kimbrel","tag-daisuke-matsuzaka","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-david-freese","tag-derek-jeter","tag-edinson-volquez","tag-edwin-encarnation","tag-giancarlo-stanton","tag-homer-bailey","tag-ian-desmond","tag-ian-kinsler","tag-ike-davis","tag-jacoby-ellsbury","tag-jaime-garcia","tag-jarrod-parker","tag-jason-amos","tag-jason-kellenbenz","tag-jason-kipnis","tag-jayson-heyward","tag-jj-hardy","tag-joe-nathan","tag-joey-votto","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-jose-bautista","tag-josh-hamilton","tag-josh-reddick","tag-justin-verlander","tag-kris-medlen","tag-kyle-lohse","tag-madison-bumgarner","tag-marco-scutaro","tag-matt-cain","tag-matt-harvey","tag-matt-kemp","tag-nick-swisher","tag-paul-goldschmidt","tag-ra-dickey","tag-rickie-weeks","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-roy-halladay","tag-sergio-romo","tag-sergio-santos","tag-shelby-miller","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-tim-wakefield","tag-todd-boss","tag-trevor-cahill","tag-vinnie-pestano","tag-vito-dragone","tag-wade-miley","tag-yoenis-cespedes","tag-yu-darvish"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6283"}],"version-history":[{"count":24,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6283\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6306,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6283\/revisions\/6306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}