First off, this is partly a post of self-flaggelation, to show how far off my various predictions of what the 2013 minor league staffs would look like by doing 2012 season-ending analysis. \u00a0Such is the nature of minor league pitching staffs in the modern day; they’re a combination of spare parts, rising stars and hangers-on and they can change rapidly with trades and spring training performances. \u00a0Every trade and every MLFA signing trickles down and fouls up predicitons.<\/p>\n
Here’s my End of Season 2012 post<\/a> with predictions for each of the 2013 minor league pitching staffs. \u00a0 We’ll use that as a basis for the Opening Day 2013 rosters of the four full-season minor league teams. \u00a0Just for fun we’ll throw in (and start with) the MLB prediction. \u00a0Note that this early in the season we don’t really know who’s shaking out as starters and relievers necessarily for these minor league teams; i’m just going on first week usage right now. \u00a0As always, Luke Erickson<\/strong> and nationalsprospects.com,\u00a0the Nats Big Board<\/a> and the tireless work by “SpringfieldFan” is much appreciated here.<\/p>\n MLB Nov 2012 Prediction<\/span><\/p>\n MLB April 2013 Actual<\/span><\/p>\n MLB Discussion<\/span>: It wasn’t going to be that difficult to predict the 2013 Nats pitching staff make-up by looking at our staff and their FA status heading into the off-season. \u00a0The rotation filled its one spot with Dan Haren<\/strong>. \u00a0The bullpen was 5\/7ths predicted correctly (if you count Zach Duke<\/strong> as a FA left-hander acquisition). \u00a0Christian Garcia<\/strong>‘s injury opened the door for one more season of Henry Rodriguez<\/strong>, and of course nobody could have predicted the Rafael Soriano<\/strong> purchase. \u00a0Lastly all 5 of the predicted departures occured, in addition to Tom Gorzelanny<\/strong> being let go.<\/p>\n AAA Nov 2012 Prediction<\/span><\/p>\n AAA Apr 2013 Actual<\/span><\/p>\n AAA Discussion<\/span><\/p>\n We were 3\/5s correct on the rotation, and probably would have been 4\/5ths right if Brad Meyers<\/strong> was healthy. \u00a0Ross Ohlendorf<\/strong> and (eventually) Chris Young<\/strong> are new faces here, both being former MLB starters who are taking the Zach Duke route of signing on for full seasons as AAA starter insurance for the big club in the hopes of rebuilding value and finding a MLB job for next year. \u00a0Brian Broderick<\/strong> is indeed back; its just that he’s starting for AA instead of AAA. \u00a0Lastly Danny Rosenbaum<\/strong> was returned to the team after his spring Rule-5 adventure and was put in AAA instead of AA, where (as we’ll see in a second) I would have predicted he would start. \u00a0Once Young is ready to go, I see Tanner Roark<\/strong> turning into the swingman\/long-man.<\/p>\n On the bright side (pun intended), when was the last time a professional baseball team had TWO Ivy League alumni pitching in its rotation?? \u00a0Both Young<\/a> and Ohlendorf<\/a> went to Princeton. \u00a0I wonder if they have NYTimes crossword puzzle competitions instead of (assumedly) video game competitions on off-days in the clubhouse.<\/p>\n As far as bullpen predictions go, next year I’m paying more close attention to who are 6-year free agents. \u00a0Arneson, Severino<\/strong> and Nelo <\/strong>were all MLFAs and have either signed on elsewhere or are facing forced retirement. \u00a0Tatusko, Davis<\/strong> and Mandel <\/strong>are onboard. \u00a0Lehman <\/strong>is (surprisingly?) in AA, perhaps a victim of the numbers game of the Nats signing (and keeping) a number of minor league lefty relievers this off-season. \u00a0I would guess, looking at the names in the bullpen, that Erik Davis<\/strong> is the closer but who knows what the usage will be like. \u00a0Lastly Bramhall <\/strong>was a MLFA signing over the off-season who just got placed on the AAA roster to replace the injured Accardo.<\/p>\n AA Nov 2012 Prediction<\/span><\/p>\n AA Apr 2013 Actual<\/span><\/p>\n AA Discussion<\/span><\/p>\n We got, well, not much of this right. \u00a0Of my starter predictions: Rosenbaum <\/strong>is in AAA, Holder <\/strong>is here but seems to be the long-man right now, Gilliam <\/strong>is hurt, Solis <\/strong>is still on the DL, and Grace <\/strong>is back in High-A. \u00a0We do seem to have at least gotten Karns <\/strong>and Demny <\/strong>right. \u00a0Broderick <\/strong>was a surprise FA signing, his being a favorite of the Nats organziation per our Rule-5 experiment with him a couple years back. \u00a0I’m surprised he’s not in the AAA rotation though. \u00a0Treinen <\/strong>was a trade-throw in from the Morse deal and takes a spot in this rotation, while Clay <\/strong>was a 2013 MLFA signing who (surprisingly?) made the rotation over the likes of other candidates.<\/p>\n The bullen prediction is all over the place: We got Frias, Holland<\/strong> and Wort <\/strong>right. \u00a0McCoy <\/strong>is in AAA, Selik <\/strong>is on the AA D\/L and VanAllen <\/strong>and Demmin <\/strong>were MLFAs who were left unsigned (and per the big board are still unsigned). \u00a0 I thought Barrett <\/strong>and Swynenberg <\/strong>would be in high-A instead of AA, I (and most others) thought Lehman <\/strong>would be in AAA, and Krol <\/strong>arrived as the PTBNL in the Morse<\/strong> trade.<\/p>\n High-A Nov 2012 Prediction<\/span><\/p>\n High-A Apr 2013 Actual<\/span><\/p>\n High-A Discussion<\/span><\/p>\n The Potomac rotation guess was already light; a couple of the guys I was guessing might be in low-A are indeed there (Schwartz <\/strong>and Rauh<\/strong>). \u00a0Swynenberg <\/strong>is in the AA bullpen. \u00a0Meyer <\/strong>was traded. \u00a0Only Robbie Ray<\/strong> returns. \u00a0I thought Jordan <\/strong>was going to repeat Hagerstown. \u00a0 We got Cole<\/strong> back in the Morse trade and bumped up Turnbull <\/strong>from short season (over Mooneyham<\/strong>, interestingly) Lastly Hill <\/strong>seems to have beaten out\u00a0Grace <\/strong>for the 5th starter spot.<\/p>\n The Bullpen prediction looks pretty good: 7 of the predicted guys are here (Smoker <\/strong>on the DL,\u00a0Meza, Holt, Hawkins, Mirowski<\/strong> and Bates<\/strong>). \u00a0Barrett <\/strong>indeed is in AA. \u00a0Testa <\/strong>was released. \u00a0Of my release candidates McCatty <\/strong>is in XST, Applebee <\/strong>and Olbrychowski are <\/strong>on the DL. \u00a0Lastly both Samuel <\/strong>and Consuegra <\/strong>were off-season MLFA signings who didn’t pan out and have already been released.<\/p>\n Low-A Nov 2012 Prediction<\/span><\/p>\n Low-A Apr 2013 Actual<\/span><\/p>\n Low-A Discussion<\/span><\/p>\n Historically the hardest to predict, the Low-A team. \u00a0Of the guesses for the rotation last fall, we only got Mooneyham <\/strong>right. \u00a0Turnbull <\/strong>and Jordan <\/strong>were bumped up a level. \u00a0Purke <\/strong>is still hurt. \u00a0Of the “competitors” the team flat out released Monar <\/strong>and Hansen <\/strong>to my surprise. \u00a0Monar was really good in Auburn<\/a> last year, and while Bobby Hansen<\/strong> wasn’t nearly as dominant as a starter<\/a>, I thought he’d at least get a shot at being a loogy after so many years in the organization. \u00a0Jack McGeary<\/strong> was selected out of the org during the minor league phase of the rule-5 draft. \u00a0Lee<\/strong> is in XST limbo right now.<\/p>\n So who are these surprising Low-A rotation guys? \u00a0I thought Anderson <\/strong>would be relegated to the bullpen in Low-A; instead he’s the opening day starter. \u00a0I thought Pineyro <\/strong>would repeat short-season ball but he made the full-season team. \u00a0And lastly I thought Pena <\/strong>was destined for another season in short-A.<\/p>\n Rauh <\/strong>and Schwartz<\/strong>, after I thought they had shots in the rotation in high-A, seem to be taking the roles of “2nd starters” for now, each having gone multiple innings in relief of the starter. \u00a0I wouldn’t be surprised to see them becoming full time starters if one of the 5 guys ahead of them falter.<\/p>\n
\n\n
\n
\n\n
\n
\n\n
\n
\n\n
\n
\n\n
\n