{"id":6827,"date":"2013-06-03T08:00:50","date_gmt":"2013-06-03T12:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=6827"},"modified":"2013-06-03T08:55:52","modified_gmt":"2013-06-03T12:55:52","slug":"two-months-in-stuck-in-neutral","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=6827","title":{"rendered":"Two months in; Stuck in Neutral"},"content":{"rendered":"

So my dad calls me the other day and immediately exclaims, “What’s wrong with this team?!?<\/em>”<\/p>\n

Today, the season is 57 games old. \u00a0Two months old. \u00a0Almost exactly 1\/3 old. \u00a0And the Nationals, the supposed power houses, next-coming-of the 1927 Yankees, the possible 110 win Nationals<\/a>, are a .500 team. \u00a0Actually, a game under .500 with the weekend series loss to Atlanta.<\/p>\n

We’ve talked about the Nats early schedule<\/a> (as has Tom Boswell<\/strong> recently), chock full of 2012 playoff contenders. \u00a0 But 2013 is a new season and in reality the Nats as of two months in have played the 14th ranked schedule<\/a> of 30 teams (3 days ago it was 19th ranked … so these rankings move fast). \u00a0 We’ve talked about the injuries, the offense in general, defense, the bench, Drew Storen<\/strong>,\u00a0Danny Espinosa<\/strong>, and\u00a0Dan Haren<\/strong> all as contributing factors. A couple of prominent national baseball writers pipped in on 5\/31\/13 on this topic:\u00a0Jay Jaffe<\/strong> on si.com<\/a> and then\u00a0Rob Neyer<\/strong> on\u00a0BaseballNation.com<\/a>, offering some suggestions, possible trades (Ian Kinsler<\/strong>?) and possible call-ups (the obvious Anthony Rendon<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

But here’s my scary thought, as proposed to my dad. \u00a0What if .500 is exactly what this team is?<\/p>\n

The 2011 Nationals finished .500. \u00a0The 2012 Nationals surprised us all and won 98 games. \u00a0Now the team is back to its 2011 levels. \u00a0Is it possible that this was always a .500 team for whom everything went perfectly right in 2012? \u00a0All the stars were in alignment in 2012 in terms of hitting, bench play and coming out parties for guys like Ian Desmond<\/strong> and Bryce Harper <\/strong>and Gio Gonzalez<\/strong>. \u00a0 Now in 2013 are we just seeing all these guys revert to their normal production levels?<\/p>\n

Were we just spoiled by the amazing bench production we got last year? \u00a0Here’s a quick table (stats as of 5\/31\/13):<\/p>\n\n\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
player<\/strong><\/td>\n2012 OPS+<\/strong><\/td>\n2013 OPS+<\/strong><\/td>\nCareer OPS+<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bernadina<\/td>\n113<\/td>\n34<\/td>\n85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Moore<\/td>\n125<\/td>\n27<\/td>\n90<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lombardozzi<\/td>\n83<\/td>\n55<\/td>\n74<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tracy<\/td>\n112<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n97<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

In other words, all four primary bench guys outperformed their career OPS+ values (mostly by a 25-30% factor) in 2012, and now all four guys are hitting so far below replacement level as to be drastically hurting the club.<\/p>\n

I think the answer to the above questions goes along the following, topic by topic:<\/p>\n