{"id":6994,"date":"2013-06-17T15:38:20","date_gmt":"2013-06-17T19:38:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=6994"},"modified":"2013-06-17T16:50:16","modified_gmt":"2013-06-17T20:50:16","slug":"ask-boswell-61713-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=6994","title":{"rendered":"Ask Boswell 6\/17\/13 Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Anthony<\/a>

He’s continued to hit in the pros like he used to in college. \u00a0Photo: Brett Coomer\/Houston Chronicle via chron.com<\/p><\/div>\n

The Nats continue to struggle offensively. \u00a0They’re generally only above the Mets and the Marlins in key offensive categories, two teams that have basically given up for 2013. \u00a0They’re hitting worse than the Astros, a team that also had given up on 2013 before it started and whose payroll is 1\/6th of ours. \u00a0 Our best hitter\u00a0Bryce Harper<\/strong> languishes on the D\/L, but the team has (finally) made some adjustments and shed some of the underperforming players on its roster and rookie\u00a0Anthony Rendon<\/strong> has been living up to his expectations.<\/p>\n

So, what is\u00a0Tom Boswell<\/strong>‘s weekly chat is going to be about? \u00a0 Here’s his 6\/17\/13 version. \u00a0As it turned out many of the questions were about the US Open, and a few about Hockey and Football. \u00a0But lots about baseball. \u00a0As always I answer here before reading Boswell’s response and edit questions for clarity.<\/p>\n

Q: Is Davey Johnson the problem with the Nats in 2013<\/strong>?<\/p>\n

A: Despite some complaints about his Starting Pitcher<\/a> and bullpen usage<\/a> earlier this year,\u00a0Davey Johnson<\/strong> isn’t the reason this team is losing. \u00a0Not with a team whose offense ranks 28th in the league<\/a> in all the basic run-creating categories (Runs, Batting Average, OBP, and OPS+). \u00a0 Changing the manager won’t help; all you can do is change the personnel. \u00a0And the Nats have done what they can; sending Tyler Moore<\/strong> and Danny Espinosa<\/strong> to the minors, calling up\u00a0Rendon (slash line as of 6\/16\/13:\u00a0.361\/.426\/.525; yeah that’s pretty darn good), giving\u00a0Chris Marrero<\/strong> some at-bats. \u00a0The obvious: they need Harper\u00a0back, they need the bench to start producing like it did in 2012, and they need\u00a0Wilson Ramos<\/strong> to come back and spell the quietly falling-apart\u00a0Kurt Suzuki<\/strong> (he’s now hitting just .215 with little power). \u00a0Boswell agrees; its the offense<\/em>.
\n<\/b><\/p>\n

Q: Did Johnson screw up by not loading the bases in the Friday loss?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Situation: 2nd and 3rd with none out; do you load the bases? \u00a0I’d normally say that it depends on the matchups; a fly ball beats you anyway, so you’re looking for a pitching matchup that you can either get a punch out or a ground ball. \u00a0Well, they got their groundball; it just wasn’t enough to get the guy at the plate, who broke on contact and was fast. \u00a0A bases-loaded situation there means Suzuki doesn’t have to make the tag, just get the force out. \u00a0I guess Johnson could have loaded the bases. \u00a0Boswell points out the similarities to this and the NLCS Game 5 situation with\u00a0Pete Kozma<\/strong> but doesn’t give an answer<\/i>.<\/p>\n

Q: Is Rick Eckstein culpable for the Nats Offensive woes?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Boswell answered an identical question on 5\/28\/13<\/a>. \u00a0 I’ll say the same thing again: I just don’t see how a hitting coach is responsible for players who suddenly hit 200 OPS points below their career averages as we’re seeing with a huge percentage of this team. \u00a0Rick Eckstein<\/strong> isn’t in the batter’s box; these guys are. \u00a0Boswell agrees, saying it isn’t Eckstein who is waving at balls a foot outside<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Are the Nats just mentally fragile?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Possibly. \u00a0I think the weight of expectations is causing them to press. \u00a0But you have some veteran guys in that clubhouse (Jayson Werth<\/strong>,\u00a0Adam LaRoche<\/strong> especially) who should be leading the team and helping to manage this. \u00a0Maybe these guys just aren’t “Captain” material? \u00a0Notice too that the two most senior guys on the pitching staff (Dan Haren<\/strong> and\u00a0Rafael Soriano<\/strong>) aren’t exactly the best role models either; Haren is struggling too much to command any respect, and Soriano doesn’t appear to be a big clubhouse influence (and I privately wonder if there isn’t lingering animosity towards Soriano’s signing from the rest of the bullpen, which seems relatively close in age and experience). \u00a0Boswell notes that the team leaders need to step up<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Why is Dan Haren pitching again<\/strong>?<\/p>\n

A: Asked and Answered here four days ago<\/a>. \u00a0Boswell didn’t really answer<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Should we eliminate pitcher Wins and Losses<\/strong>?<\/p>\n

A: Well, if you’re a sabrematrician we should. \u00a0A pitcher can give up one hit in 5 innings (as\u00a0Stephen Strasburg<\/strong> did on sunday) and take the loss, while a pitcher can give up 5 runs in 5 and get a win if his offense bails him out. \u00a0That in a nutshell is the issue most people have with the Win and Loss statistics. \u00a0 I saw a stat on billy-ball.com today that\u00a0Chad Billingsley<\/strong>\u00a0took the loss in an 8-inning one-hit outing in 2011<\/a>\u00a0(the run was un-earned to boot). \u00a0That’s pretty unlucky. \u00a0Bill James<\/strong> said recently that he continues to use W\/L records simply because they’ve been the default way to express stats for pitchers for 100 years. \u00a0I now view them sort of as throw-away stats written ahead of the meaningful measurements for pitchers, things like Fip and xFip, perhaps Siera. \u00a0I like ERA+ and K\/9 as good short-hand measurements too, but realize that every one of these stats has flaws. \u00a0The pitcher “Win” used to mean a lot more than it does now; when a guy went 9 innings every day instead of going 5 2\/3 and having a bullpen close out more than a third of the game it becomes harder and harder to equate one with with another. \u00a0Boswell agrees.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0How much of Rendon’s hitting is a reflection of his talent, and how much of it is a product of teams not having a book on him yet? Certainly he’s not a .350 hitter, but is he a .300-.310 hitter?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Great question. \u00a0I think its part column A and part column B. \u00a0For one, he’s an exceptional hitter. \u00a0He wasn’t College Player of the Year<\/a> as a sophomore at Rice by accident. \u00a0He should have been a 1-1 pick had it not been for lingering issues that dropped him into the Nats lap in 2011. \u00a0And in his short sample size so far in 2013 we’re seeing his great approach; fast hands, ability to use the whole field, opposite field power. \u00a0Now, a new hitter hasn’t had “the book” written on him (that’s what advance scouts do) so yes, we’ll expect to see teams identify weaknesses in Rendon’s swing and start pitching him accordingly. \u00a0The great players then adjust to the adjustments. \u00a0In the ESPN documentary\u00a0Bryce Begins<\/em> there was a very telling quote from Braves pitcher\u00a0Kris Medlen<\/strong>, who commented that Harper had “already made the adjustment” to the way the Braves were pitching him from one series to the next. \u00a0The film then showed Harper fanning at a pitch to strike out .. and then clobbering the same pitch in a subsequent game. \u00a0That’s what pro hitters do to stay good, and that’s what Rendon is going to have to eventually do to keep his lofty average. \u00a0Boswell raves about his stat lines all the way up the minors<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Nats continue to struggle offensively. \u00a0They’re generally only above the Mets and the Marlins in key offensive categories, two teams that have basically given up for 2013. \u00a0They’re hitting worse than the Astros, a team that also had given up on 2013 before it started and whose payroll is 1\/6th of ours. \u00a0 Our […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[184,185,635,164,1252,124,983,135,137,115,970,1033,1152,1398,276,38,1016,125,235,147],"class_list":["post-6994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chatmailbag-responses","tag-adam-laroche","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-bill-james","tag-bryce-harper","tag-chad-billingsley","tag-chris-marrero","tag-dan-haren","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-davey-johnson","tag-jayson-werth","tag-kris-medlen","tag-kurt-suzuki","tag-pete-kozma","tag-rafael-soriano","tag-rick-eckstein","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-todd-boss","tag-tom-boswell","tag-tyler-moore","tag-wilson-ramos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6994","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6994"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6994\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7004,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6994\/revisions\/7004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6994"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6994"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6994"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}