{"id":7012,"date":"2013-06-18T12:38:48","date_gmt":"2013-06-18T16:38:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=7012"},"modified":"2013-06-18T12:38:48","modified_gmt":"2013-06-18T16:38:48","slug":"variation-on-the-offense-theme-records-by-runs-scored","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7012","title":{"rendered":"Variation on the Offense theme; Records by runs scored"},"content":{"rendered":"

We know the offense is bad. \u00a0Even given\u00a0Dan Haren<\/strong>‘s continued struggles, he’s not the problem.<\/p>\n

Here’s a telling statistic; from Baseball-Reference here’ links to 2013’s Team Scoring Summary<\/a> report and a comparison to 2012’s version<\/a>. \u00a0I did a version of this analysis mid-last year<\/a> to show the amazing record the 2012 team had in games in which they scored 4 or more runs. \u00a0 Lets see what’s changed this year:<\/p>\n

Some telling breakdowns:<\/p>\n

In 2012:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n
# runs scored<\/td>\nWins<\/td>\nLosses<\/td>\nW\/L %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 or less<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n0.283582<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 or more<\/td>\n79<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n0.831579<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5 or more<\/td>\n62<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n0.861111<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

If they scored 4 runs, they won 83% of their games last year. \u00a0There were a couple weird games (they lost three games in which they scored 9 or 10 runs; that’s hard to do) but overall these stats are pretty constant for most teams; when you score 3 or fewer runs it is awful hard to win. \u00a04 runs is the benchmark to shoot for.<\/p>\n

More specifically though, the 2012 Nats were an astounding 17-6 when they scored exactly four runs. \u00a0You would expect something closer to a .500 record in games like that, given the RS\/RA averages and league ERAs in baseball. \u00a0That’s indicative of just how good our starters were last year collectively.<\/p>\n

In 2013, through Monday 6\/17\/13 game:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n
# runs scored<\/td>\nWins<\/td>\nLosses<\/td>\nW\/L %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 or less<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n0.225<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 or more<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0.862069<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5 or more<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0.961538<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The percentages are roughly the same. \u00a0They’re losing a few more of the low-scoring games thus far, but are winning a few more of the higher scoring games. \u00a0 But look at the number of times they’ve already scored 3 or fewer runs (40) versus all of last year (67). \u00a0And their record when scoring the magic 4 runs exactly? \u00a00-3.<\/p>\n

On the bright side, they’re closing out wins much better when scoring 5 or more than they did last year (when they had some amazing blown leads).<\/p>\n

Conclusion? \u00a0Hope for 4 runs every night (though it didn’t work last night<\/a>). \u00a0And then hope again for that 5th run.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We know the offense is bad. \u00a0Even given\u00a0Dan Haren‘s continued struggles, he’s not the problem. Here’s a telling statistic; from Baseball-Reference here’ links to 2013’s Team Scoring Summary report and a comparison to 2012’s version. \u00a0I did a version of this analysis mid-last year to show the amazing record the 2012 team had in games […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[983,1016],"class_list":["post-7012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","tag-dan-haren","tag-todd-boss"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7012"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7012\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7014,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7012\/revisions\/7014"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}