{"id":7074,"date":"2014-07-31T14:50:11","date_gmt":"2014-07-31T18:50:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=7074"},"modified":"2014-09-24T09:03:26","modified_gmt":"2014-09-24T13:03:26","slug":"whats-eating-stephen-strasburg-some-stats-and-some-thoughts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7074","title":{"rendered":"What&#8217;s eating Stephen Strasburg?  Some stats and some thoughts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_4747\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/StrasburgStephen_Landing_unk-via-thewifehatessports.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4747\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-4747\" alt=\"Strasburg's  having a weird season. Photo unk via thewifehatessports.com\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/StrasburgStephen_Landing_unk-via-thewifehatessports.com_-300x180.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/StrasburgStephen_Landing_unk-via-thewifehatessports.com_-300x180.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/StrasburgStephen_Landing_unk-via-thewifehatessports.com_.jpg 460w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4747\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Strasburg&#8217;s having a weird season. Photo unk via thewifehatessports.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Knee-jerk question: who is the best starter on the Washington Nationals? \u00a0Who do you call the team&#8217;s &#8220;Ace?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>For years its been\u00a0<strong>Stephen Strasburg<\/strong>, even when\u00a0<strong>Gio Gonzalez<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong> were getting Cy Young votes (Gio 3rd place in 2012 and Jordan 7th place in 2013). \u00a0Its been Strasburg even when Zimmermann makes two consecutive all-star teams and the team acquires\u00a0<strong>Doug Fister<\/strong>, who is 13th in the majors in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;season=2014&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2011&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0\">accumulated fWAR<\/a> over the past four seasons. \u00a0Its still Strasburg despite the fact that\u00a0#5 starter (and someone who people in this space argued rather vociferously for &#8220;stashing&#8221; in AAA this year in lieu of other pitchers)\u00a0<strong>Tanner Roark<\/strong> leads the team in victories right now.<\/p>\n<p>(all stats on\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/teams\/WSN\/2014.shtml\">baseball-reference.com<\/a>\u00a0and\/or\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2014&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2014&amp;ind=0&amp;team=24&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0\">fangraphs.com<\/a>\u00a0as of 7\/31\/14).<\/p>\n<p>But this year, something is amiss with Strasburg. \u00a0He&#8217;s having a complete jeckyl-and-hyde season in many ways. \u00a0To wit;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>He leads the starters in FIP and xFIP, \u00a0(indeed; among qualified starters right now in MLB, he&#8217;s 11th in FIP and 4th in xFIP, training just leading Cy Young favorites <strong>Clayton\u00a0Kershaw, Felix Hernandez <\/strong>and<strong> Masahiro\u00a0Tanaka<\/strong>).<\/li>\n<li>He leads the Nats starters in fWAR.<\/li>\n<li>He leads the NL in strikeouts with 10 more than his closest competitor\u00a0<strong>Johnny Cueto<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I dunno. \u00a0If someone told me that a starting pitcher was leading the league in Ks, was 4th in xFIP, 11th in FIP and was 6th in velocity i&#8217;d say you had a pretty darn good pitcher. \u00a0But he&#8217;s been arguably the Nats *least* effective starter this year all in all.<\/p>\n<p>Yet he&#8217;s just 7-9 on the season with a 3.55 ERA (one 1\/100th of a point better than Zimmermann for last on the Nats rotation). \u00a0 He has the worst WHIP of any of our starters at 1.240. \u00a0The team is just 11-12 in his starts.<\/p>\n<p>So what the heck is going on? \u00a0Here&#8217;s some interesting statistical splits:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Compared to last year, his K\/9 is up, his BB\/9 is down. \u00a0That sounds good. \u00a0But his ground ball percentage is down and his line drive percentage is up. \u00a0Batters are putting better wood on the ball. \u00a0Which leads to&#8230;<\/li>\n<li>His current BABIP against is an astoundingly high .345. \u00a0That&#8217;s the third highest BABIP of any qualified starter this year and a good 50 points higher than the league average.<\/li>\n<li>Why are hitters getting such good wood on him? \u00a0Here&#8217;s a hint: for reasons unknown, batters are squaring up his fastballs like never before. \u00a0Checking his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=10131&amp;position=P\">Pitch F\/X data<\/a>: he&#8217;s got a batting average against (BAA) of .294 on his four-seam fastball and an astounding .350 against his two-seam fastball. \u00a0Both of those figures are 50 points higher than the comparable BAA for those two pitches from 2013.<\/li>\n<li>His velocity is down. \u00a0Which is kind of like saying that a model has gained a few pounds, but still. \u00a0 Last years&#8217; avg MPH on his two fastballs were 95.2 and 95.3. \u00a0This year? \u00a094.5 and 94.6. \u00a0That&#8217;s just 7\/10ths of a mph, and even with his loss of velocity he&#8217;s still easily in the top 10 in the league in average fastball velocity (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=10&amp;season=2014&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2014&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0\">6th in four seam velocity<\/a> among starters), but its still declining. \u00a0In his 5 pro seasons his 4-seam average fastball velocity has gone from 97.6 to 96.0 to 95.8 to 95.2 to his current 94.5.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It sounds to me like a combination of slightly declined fastball velocity and some bad luck has led to hitters squaring up his fastballs more this year, resulting in more line drives, higher BABIP and more runs. \u00a0That more or less explains the huge delta between his ERA and his FIP. \u00a0But why? \u00a0Pitch F\/X isn&#8217;t showing much of a change in fastball movement from last year to this year, so it is hard to argue that he&#8217;s lost movement on his fastball. \u00a0Could it all just be about location?<\/p>\n<p>A couple more <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/split.cgi?id=strasst01&amp;year=2014&amp;t=p\">split-related observations<\/a> (some of these we&#8217;ve seen during broadcasts):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Home ERA: 2.62. \u00a0Away ERA: 4.68. \u00a0Yeah, but lots of pitchers have big home\/away splits.<\/li>\n<li>First Inning ERA: 5.09! \u00a0Second Inning ERA: 4.30. \u00a0He&#8217;s getting hit early and often.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s improving as the game goes on; his stats against the order the second time through are significantly better than the first time through, something you don&#8217;t normally see.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If he&#8217;s so bad in the first inning, is he just having difficulties getting loose and finding his spots? \u00a0Is he falling behind and grooving fastballs and getting more line drive hits? \u00a0Why is he so significantly worse on the road?<\/p>\n<p>On the bright side, the combination of an inflated BABIP and a huge delta between xFIP\/FIP and his ERA does tend to indicate that there should be some regression back to the mean. \u00a0Maybe we&#8217;ll start seeing a bunch more of 7ip, 4hit, 2walk, 10K outings and he&#8217;ll break off a slew of dominant starts to help the Nats pull away in the division, just in time to lead the charge with a \u00a0home-field start in game 1 of the playoffs.<\/p>\n<p>Thoughts? \u00a0Are you worried? \u00a0What else do you think is causing his troubles this year?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Knee-jerk question: who is the best starter on the Washington Nationals? \u00a0Who do you call the team&#8217;s &#8220;Ace?&#8221; For years its been\u00a0Stephen Strasburg, even when\u00a0Gio Gonzalez and\u00a0Jordan Zimmermann were getting Cy Young votes (Gio 3rd place in 2012 and Jordan 7th place in 2013). \u00a0Its been Strasburg even when Zimmermann makes two consecutive all-star teams [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[426,241,407,385,890,43,2166,38,77],"class_list":["post-7074","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-clayton-kershaw","tag-doug-fister","tag-felix-hernandez","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-johnny-cueto","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-masahiro-tanaka","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-tanner-roark"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7074","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7074"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7074\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9650,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7074\/revisions\/9650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7074"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7074"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7074"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}