{"id":7094,"date":"2013-06-28T14:26:39","date_gmt":"2013-06-28T18:26:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=7094"},"modified":"2013-06-28T14:26:39","modified_gmt":"2013-06-28T18:26:39","slug":"if-only-we-had-a-healthy-lineup-nationals-runs-scored-analysis-and-what-if","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7094","title":{"rendered":"If only we had a healthy lineup… Nationals runs Scored analysis and what-if"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here’s a fun little statistical exercise. \u00a0What would the Nats record be right now if it actually had all its guys healthy at the same time?<\/p>\n

Lets use a short hand stat (OPS+) to take a quick look, and then make some runs scored analysis adjustments to see some expected W\/L records. \u00a0Assuming both\u00a0Bryce Harper<\/strong> and\u00a0Wilson Ramos<\/strong> were healthy and continued to hit at their current OPS+ rates once they return (which frankly is a rather conservative statement; Harper was hitting far above his seasonal OPS+ rate before he started running into walls at the end of April), \u00a0here’s what our lineup could look like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lineup #<\/td>\nNaem<\/td>\nBats<\/td>\nPos<\/td>\nOPS+ as of 6\/28\/13<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nDenard Span<\/td>\nL<\/td>\nCF<\/td>\n82<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nAnthony Rendon<\/td>\nR<\/td>\n2B<\/td>\n134<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nBryce Harper<\/td>\nL<\/td>\nLF<\/td>\n166<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nRyan Zimmerman<\/td>\nR<\/td>\n3B<\/td>\n125<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nAdam LaRoche<\/td>\nL<\/td>\n1B<\/td>\n118<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nIan Desmond<\/td>\nR<\/td>\nSS<\/td>\n117<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nJayson Werth<\/td>\nR<\/td>\nRF<\/td>\n104<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nWilson Ramos<\/td>\nR<\/td>\nC<\/td>\n105<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nPitcher<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

That’s nearly an entire lineup of guys above 100 OPS+ (which indicates league average production) and from 2-6 are significantly above 100. \u00a0I dare say, this lineup of guys, with an average OPS+ of 118, should produce runs at about 18% above the league average. \u00a0Now, the pitcher spot and our crummy bench production will drag this team number down; lets say for sake of argument that this lineup will produce at an average of a 110 OPS+ when they’re all present and accounted for.<\/p>\n

What does that mean? \u00a0 Through 6\/28\/13’s games, the league team average<\/a> of Runs Scored is 330. \u00a0 \u00a0The Nats have scored, to date, 275 runs, which ranks them 29th in the league and only above the AAA team the Miami Marlins are running out every night. \u00a0Lets look at two scenarios for our offense from a Pythagorean Record perspective to show where this team could have been with a league average offense and with the above described 10% above league average offense:<\/p>\n

First, where are we right now:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n6\/28\/13 actual<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual Wins<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual Losses<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual W\/L Record<\/td>\n39-39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Games played<\/td>\n78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual W\/L percentage<\/td>\n0.500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Runs Scored<\/td>\n275<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Runs Allowed<\/td>\n303<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean W\/L percentage<\/td>\n0.456<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean wins<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean losses<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean W\/L Record<\/td>\n36-42<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

We’ve scored 275, allowed 303 and are playing 3 games above our Pythagorean record. \u00a0Mostly because of a handful of specific blowouts<\/a> (15-0 loss to Cincy the first week, a 9-0 loss in Atlanta, 10-1 loss in New York, back to back 13-4 and 8-0 beatings in San Diego and San Francisco), this team is playing a few games better than its expected record based purely on RS\/RA. \u00a0We don’t have enough reverse-blowouts where the Nats have won by a large score to really counter balance it.<\/p>\n

(Fun fact: did you know the Nats have only scored 8 or more runs in a game 3 times in their first 78 games? \u00a0The Red Sox have scored in double figures 9 times already including one 17 run outburst a few weeks back. \u00a0It seemingly takes the Nats a WEEK to score 17 runs. \u00a0I digress).<\/p>\n

How about if the Nats just had a league average Offense right now, scoring 330 runs instead of 275?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nthru 78 games with MLB avg runs scored<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual Wins<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual Losses<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual W\/L Record<\/td>\n39-39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Games played<\/td>\n78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual W\/L percentage<\/td>\n0.500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Runs Scored<\/td>\n330<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Runs Allowed<\/td>\n303<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean W\/L percentage<\/td>\n0.539<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean wins<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean losses<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean W\/L Record<\/td>\n42-36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

We’d be at a Pythagorean record of 42-36 but (for reasons listed above) they’d likely have a record of 45-33. \u00a0 45-33 would have us essentially tied for the divisional lead right now.<\/p>\n

Last scenario; what if we were scoring at 10% above the league average, inline with the production of the 2012 offense and in line with the assumptions made on the OPS+ analysis above?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nthru 78 games at 10% above league avg runs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual Wins<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual Losses<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual W\/L Record<\/td>\n39-39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Games played<\/td>\n78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Actual W\/L percentage<\/td>\n0.500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Runs Scored<\/td>\n363<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Runs Allowed<\/td>\n303<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean W\/L percentage<\/td>\n0.582<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean wins<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean losses<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pythagorean W\/L Record<\/td>\n45-33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Pythagorean record of 45-33, likely actual record three games better at 48-30, which would have us tied with St. Louis and Pittsburgh for the best record in the game. \u00a0Right back where the team was last year in terms of league-wide record.<\/p>\n

Interesting.<\/p>\n

Conclusion: its all about the offense. \u00a0Maybe my own personal doom and gloom can get turned around if we get our guys back healthy, start hitting, continue pitching as well as we have, and get this turned around.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here’s a fun little statistical exercise. \u00a0What would the Nats record be right now if it actually had all its guys healthy at the same time? Lets use a short hand stat (OPS+) to take a quick look, and then make some runs scored analysis adjustments to see some expected W\/L records. \u00a0Assuming both\u00a0Bryce Harper […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[184,185,164,482,114,115,36,147],"class_list":["post-7094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","tag-adam-laroche","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-bryce-harper","tag-denard-span","tag-ian-desmond","tag-jayson-werth","tag-ryan-zimmerman","tag-wilson-ramos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7094"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7094\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7459,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7094\/revisions\/7459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}